Prediction: $1,000 Invested in SpaceX Stock Will Be Worth This Amount in 3 Years

Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) has already taken investors on a wild ride. Shares of the company are down nearly 46.9% from its post-initial public offering (IPO) high of $225.64 and even below its IPO price of $135 (as of July 20).

Investors can buy roughly 8.34 shares of SpaceX with $1,000. The company currently has approximately 13.2 billion shares outstanding, implying a market capitalization of nearly $1.58 trillion. This implies that the company is currently trading at nearly 40.4 times analysts' estimated 2026 revenue of $39.1 billion.

Hence, SpaceX is still trading at a premium valuation that assumes near-perfect execution.

Image source: Getty Images.

Multiple catalysts

SpaceX's connectivity segment, powered by the Starlink satellite network, generated $11.4 billion in revenue and $4.4 billion in operating profit in 2025. Starlink also exited the first quarter of 2026 with 10.3 million subscribers, up 105% year over year. However, Starlink's average revenue per user fell 23% year over year to $66 in the first quarter, as SpaceX expanded into lower-priced international markets.

Continued subscriber growth, increasing penetration in the enterprise and government segments, and Starlink mobile services could support further revenue growth. However, falling revenue per subscriber may offset part of those gains. Starlink mobile network was providing data, messaging, and internet-based voice services to around 7.4 million monthly unique devices across about 30 countries by the end of the first quarter.

SpaceX may also witness rapid expansion in its network capacity once its next-generation reusable rocket system, Starship, begins deploying the larger V3 Starlink satellites. Each Starship launch carrying V3 satellites is estimated to add more than 20 times as much capacity as a launch of V2 Mini satellites on the currently used Falcon 9 rocket system. This can help Starlink serve more customers and offer more data-heavy services, although the benefit depends on successful Starship launches and continued regulatory approvals.

SpaceX's AI segment presents a much less certain opportunity. The segment remains unprofitable despite ongoing heavy investments in AI infrastructure. Hence, while successful AI contracts could emerge as a key growth engine, the business currently remains a major drain on profits and cash.

What $1,000 could be worth

The projections start with an estimated 2026 revenue of $39.1 billion. Also, assume 1.5% annual equity dilution, which would increase SpaceX's share count to about 13.76 billion by 2029. This appears reasonable given the company's significant pool of shares reserved for employee awards, options, and restricted stock.

In a conservative scenario, assuming 20% annual revenue growth, revenue will reach $67.6 billion in 2029. Applying a conservative price-to-sales multiple close to 10x gives SpaceX a $676 billion market capitalization and a share price near $49. The initial $1,000 would fall to approximately $410.

In my base case, 35% annual growth lifts revenue to $96.2 billion. A price-to-sales multiple close to 15 produces a share price of roughly $105, turning $1,000 into approximately $875.

Finally, in the best-case scenario, 50% annual growth would produce $132 billion in revenue. At a reasonable 20 times sales, SpaceX stock could reach approximately $192, making the investment worth roughly $1,600.

The base case appears most reasonable. Hence, although Starlink can remain a powerful growth business, SpaceX's valuation leaves little room for delays in Starship, AI losses, dilution, or multiple compression.

Manali Pradhan, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.