WTI rises to near $69.00 despite OPEC+ hikes, Hormuz flows
- WTI may fall as normalizing Strait of Hormuz traffic and projected OPEC+ output hikes renew global supply glut fears.
- OPEC+ approved an 188,000-barrel-per-day output hike led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, signaling confidence in regional stability.
- Iran has started talks with Japanese firms to resume crude oil sales under a temporary US sanctions waiver.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price extends its gains for the third successive day, trading around $69.00 per barrel during the Asian hours on Monday. However, Crude oil prices hover near four-month lows as stabilizing traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and projected OPEC+ (The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+), including Russia) production increases renewed fears of a global supply glut.
Although several tankers made unexplained detours on Saturday, shipping lanes through the critical chokepoint normalized by Sunday. Meanwhile, OPEC+ approved a modest output hike of 188,000 barrels per day for next month, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, a move signaling confidence in regional stability.
While the UAE and Saudi Arabia have pushed physical exports closer to pre-war levels, the ongoing regional conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran has occasionally blocked vital shipping lanes, leaving some of these promised production increases realized largely on paper.
According to Reuters, Iran has entered discussions with Japanese firms to resume crude oil sales under a temporary US sanctions waiver. The 60-day waiver, granted on June 22 as part of ongoing peace talks between Tehran and Washington, is set to expire on August 21. Three Japanese buyers are currently evaluating potential Iranian oil purchases, which would mark their first since 2019. However, these prospective buyers are reportedly seeking an extended waiver window and firmer guarantees regarding shipping safety before moving forward.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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