The Week Ahead: US Stocks Face Liquidity Test After Independence Day Holiday. SpaceX Officially Joins Nasdaq 100 as Fed June Minutes Loom

TradingKey - In the coming week, global capital markets will face a liquidity shock after the long Independence Day holiday. SpaceX ( SPCX ), the protagonist of the IPO of the century, will be officially included in the Nasdaq 100 Index on Tuesday, which may trigger a major reshuffle of hundreds of billions in passive capital. On the macro level, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its June monetary policy meeting, chaired by the new Chairman Kevin Warsh. Meanwhile, the Q2 earnings season for US stocks is about to kick off, with consumer giant PepsiCo ( PEP) and aviation hub Delta Air Lines ( DAL) set to be the first to report.

Key Events Preview

SpaceX to be Officially Added to Nasdaq 100 on Tuesday, Triggering Hundreds of Billions in Passive Fund Rebalancing

As the largest IPO in history, Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX), after its successful listing that broke Saudi Aramco's record, will officially meet the "15-trading-day fast-entry" rule next Tuesday (July 7) to be included in the Nasdaq 100 Index.

According to JPMorgan Chase estimates, this move will directly trigger up to $22 billion to $27 billion in mechanical buying from passive funds. Because SpaceX's free float available for trading is extremely low, this epic influx of capital could lead to severe volatility in its stock price. Meanwhile, to free up weight, massive funds tracking the Nasdaq index must proportionally liquidate positions in tech giants such as Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia, presenting a severe liquidity "drain" test for the U.S. tech sector next Tuesday.

FOMC Minutes to be Released on Thursday

On Thursday, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its June monetary policy meeting, which is the first policy meeting chaired by the new Chairman Kevin Warsh since taking office. At the recently concluded Sintra Central Banking Forum, Warsh explicitly reiterated that "U.S. inflation remains too high" and refused to hint at a July rate cut, causing market expectations of no rate cuts or even rate hikes in the second half of the year to heat up significantly.

TSMC to Release June Revenue Report on Friday

As investment in AI infrastructure remains frenzied in 2026, the production capacity of global giants like Nvidia ( NVDA ), Apple ( AAPL ), and Super Micro Computer ( SMCI) is entirely in the hands of TSMC ( TSM ). On Friday, TSMC will disclose its monthly revenue data for June. This indicator will directly preview the quality of profit realization for the entire U.S. semiconductor and AI sector in the second quarter, and is regarded as a bellwether on the eve of the earnings season for core U.S. tech stocks.

U.S. Q2 Earnings Season Set to Begin, Consumer and Airline Giants First to Report

The second-quarter earnings season for U.S. stocks is set to kick off in July. Although the concentrated disclosures from major Wall Street banks will not arrive until mid-July, industry giants such as PepsiCo and Delta Air Lines will be the first to report next week. Through these traditional industry leaders, the market will closely observe the true resilience of U.S. consumer spending under a high interest rate environment, corporate profitability, and management's latest outlook on the macro prospects for the second half of the year.

Key Weekly Agenda

Monday (July 6)

Key words: Final US S&P Global Services PMI for June, US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for June, Fed Governor Waller speaks

After the market reopens from the long US Independence Day holiday, the US will release its final S&P Global Services PMI and final Composite PMI for June.

Fed Governor Waller will deliver a speech on the US economic outlook and monetary policy. The market will closely monitor his latest stance under the macro shifts of the "Warsh era."

Tuesday (July 7)

Key words: US Trade Balance for May, China's Foreign Exchange Reserves for June, Turkey hosts NATO Summit

On this day, China will release its foreign exchange reserves data for June. During the US session, the US will release its trade balance for May, export and import data for May, and the weekly change in ADP employment for the week ending June 20.

Regarding major international events, the NATO Summit will be hosted by Turkey from July 7 to 9, with heads of state attending in close succession.

Wednesday (July 8)

Key words: US EIA Crude Oil Inventories for the week ending July 3, EIA releases monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report

The energy market awaits heavy-weight releases as the US EIA will publish its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report. Subsequently, the weekly US EIA crude oil inventories, Cushing crude oil inventories, and Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) changes for the week ending July 3 will also be released as scheduled.

Thursday (July 9)

Key words: Federal Reserve releases monetary policy meeting minutes, China's YoY CPI for June, US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending July 4, Permanent FOMC Voting Member and New York Fed President Williams speaks, PepsiCo earnings

The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its June monetary policy meeting, fully revealing the details of the hawkish policy restructuring under the leadership of the new Chairman, Kevin Warsh.

During the Asia-Pacific session, China will release its YoY CPI and YoY PPI for June, with the market focusing on the recovery slope of domestic prices. During the US session, the US will release its initial jobless claims for the week ending July 4.

Meanwhile, permanent FOMC voting member and New York Fed President John Williams will deliver a speech.

On the earnings front, consumer giant PepsiCo will disclose its financial results ahead of the US market open.

Friday (July 10)

Key words: 2026 FOMC Voting Member and Dallas Fed President Logan speaks, TSMC's June revenue report, Delta Air Lines earnings

On central bank dynamics, 2026 FOMC voting member and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will deliver a speech. Meanwhile, TSMC will release its monthly revenue report for June.

Airlines giant Delta Air Lines will release its financial results for the second quarter of 2026 and host an earnings call.