TD Cowen suggests that the US crypto market structure bill could be delayed until 2027

A major piece of US legislative effort to establish a clear regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency market could face a significant delay, with passage now potentially pushed to 2027, according to analysts at investment bank TD Cowen.

The firm’s Washington Research Group warned that ongoing political dynamics in Congress make swift enactment this year unlikely — and could stretch implementation as far out as 2029. Based on their argument, this situation has increased the chances of delays despite analysts’ assertions that a crypto market structure bill could be passed this year. 

Jaret Seiberg, managing director of TD Cowen’s Washington Research Group, weighed in on the topic of discussion. In a note dated Monday, January 5,  Seiberg pointed out that Democrats may take time to act, especially if they believe that the 2026 midterm elections can enable them to reclaim control of the House.

“Since election results are always uncertain, Democrats might decide to make a deal,” Seiberg wrote. “This could happen soon because staff have been preparing the technical details for several months.” 

Lawmakers raise concerns about the participation of Trump’s family in the crypto industry 

Following the current situation, Seiberg declared that there is sufficient time to pass the bill, arguing that if the bill receives approval from the relevant authorities as anticipated in 2027 and is implemented in 2029, then all the challenges faced will be resolved.

He also noted that the crypto community must understand that the presidential election has a great impact on the ultimate regulations. For Democrats, Seiberg noted that they need to grasp the fact that the conflict provision will not apply to US President Donald Trump. 

Seiberg has also predicted that conflict-of-interest regulations will be a major challenge. To facilitate better understanding, he elaborated that there is a high likelihood that Democrats will strongly support rules that restrict senior government officials and their families, including Trump, from operating or owning cryptocurrency businesses. According to him, such conditions would act as a “nonstarter”, particularly for Trump, unless they were delayed for some years.

In the meantime, a reliable source highlighted that the US president generated around $620 million last July, derived from crypto-related activities connected to his family, including World Liberty Financial, a DeFi and stablecoin project. 

Following this news, a thorough investigation was conducted, revealing that Trump, along with his three sons, was the co-founder of these activities.

The investigation also disclosed that the family made significant investments in American Bitcoin, a cryptocurrency mining and acquisition firm. Interestingly, this investment was made at a time when lawmakers began raising concerns regarding the TRUMP and MELANIA meme coins. It is worth noting that these meme coins were introduced just before Trump assumed the presidency of the United States. 

“One possible way to address Trump’s concerns is by making the conflict of interest rule start three years after it becomes law,” Seiberg explained. “This would push it beyond the next inauguration, which means it wouldn’t affect Trump at all. We think Democrats would only agree to this if the rest of the bill was also delayed for three years.” 

Individuals express optimism about the passage of the crypto market structure bill soon 

Crypto market structure legislation is perceived as a significant breakthrough in regulation, following the passage of the GENIUS Act, which marked the United States’ first major legislative step towards regulating stablecoins. 

The primary objective of this legislation is to establish a straightforward system that outlines how relevant authorities in the country manage digital assets. This scrutiny will also include oversight by agencies and the classification of assets. 

What has delayed the passage of this market structure bill is that the progress in the Senate stopped after the House passed its version of the bill last year. However, hope has been sparked in the ecosystem after it was confirmed that committees in the Senate are anticipated to hold discussions regarding the bill later this year.

Notably, for a Senate filibuster to be successfully overcome, 60 votes are needed. This situation implies that Republicans will require backing from at least seven Democrats, even if each Republican decides to support the bill. In reality, Seiberg claimed that there is a possibility that they might require about eight or nine Democratic votes, as some Republicans have demonstrated a likelihood of opposing this legislation.

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