When is the US ADP Employment Change data and how could it affect EUR/USD?
The United States (US) Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Change data for November is due for release today at 13:15 GMT.
Investors will pay close attention to the US ADP Employment Change data as it will indicate the current status of labor demand in the private sector. The agency is expected to show that private employers hired 5K fresh workers, significantly lower than 42K in October.
Signs of weakening US job market conditions would prompt expectations of another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year. Currently, the CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.50%-3.75% in the December policy meeting is 87%.
However, better-than-projected ADP Employment Change figures are unlikely to pose a significant drag on Fed dovish expectations, as one-time upbeat numbers would be insufficient to ease policymakers' concerns about the labor market's health.
How could US ADP Employment Change affect EUR/USD?
EUR/USD trades 0.3% higher to near 1.1663 ahead of the US ADP Employment Change data release during the European trading session. The pair stays above the upward-sloping 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1591, indicating a strong uptrend.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 62 (bullish) shows firm momentum without overbought conditions.
With the breakout of an inverse Head and Shoulder (H&S) chart pattern in place, the neckline around 1.1600 should act a support now. On the upside, the October 17 high near 1.1728 would act as key resistance.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)
Economic Indicator
ADP Employment Change
The ADP Employment Change is a gauge of employment in the private sector released by the largest payroll processor in the US, Automatic Data Processing Inc. It measures the change in the number of people privately employed in the US. Generally speaking, a rise in the indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and is stimulative of economic growth. So a high reading is traditionally seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Wed Dec 03, 2025 13:15
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 5K
Previous: 42K
Source: ADP Research Institute
Traders often consider employment figures from ADP, America’s largest payrolls provider, report as the harbinger of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on Nonfarm Payrolls (usually published two days later), because of the correlation between the two. The overlaying of both series is quite high, but on individual months, the discrepancy can be substantial. Another reason FX traders follow this report is the same as with the NFP – a persistent vigorous growth in employment figures increases inflationary pressures, and with it, the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish.
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