The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) spent Wednesday morning printing another record, its third in a row, before running headlong into Kevin Warsh's first decision as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair.

Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair held rates steady, exactly as expected, and then handed the Dollar one of its cleaner catalysts of the year.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) held the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% on Wednesday, but Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Chair was anything but a placeholder.

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong notes FX markets are in a holding pattern as traders await the FOMC, with Oil’s decline easing inflation pressures but seen as having limited further downside.

Societe Generale’s Kit Juckes relays Jan Groen’s view that the US economy shows resilient growth with sticky inflation, keeping the Fed on hold for now. He notes market pricing still leans toward a rate hike in early 2027.

ING strategists highlight that cyclical drivers have reasserted themselves in FX, underpinning a stronger Dollar over the coming months. They argue that these cyclical factors will keep the Dollar bid, delaying any meaningful downturn.

MUFG’s Derek Halpenny highlights that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first post-FOMC press conference comes as Brent Oil has dropped sharply, easing near-term inflation risks but not eliminating them.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad notes Brent Oil is testing its 200-day moving average while the Dollar consolidates after giving back more than half of its post-May payrolls gains.

Dow Jones futures move little, hovering near 52,040 during the European hours on Wednesday, ahead of the US regular opening. However, S&P 500 futures rise 0.26% to near 7,540, and Nasdaq 100 futures advance 0.8%, trading near 30,240 at the time of writing.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, consolidates in a narrow band around mid-99.00s through the first half of the European session on Wednesday as traders opt to wait for the outcome of a two-day FOMC meeting.

BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that the Dollar is firming ahead of the FOMC as iFlow data show it increasingly driven by rate expectations rather than safe-haven demand. Clients are net sellers of the Canadian Dollar and Australian Dollar, while some North Asian currencies still attract buyers.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, currently trades near 99.50 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The DXY extends the decline amid optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran peace deal.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average pushed to a fresh all-time high near 52,100 on Tuesday, capping a two-day surge that is almost entirely about one thing: the apparent end of the war in Iran.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad notes the Dollar Index is trading defensively just below the top of its long-held 96.00–100.00 range, even as US assets benefit from optimism after the US-Iran peace agreement.

ING strategists Francesco Pesole, Chris Turner and Frantisek Taborsky note the Dollar is rallying again, supported by strong US data and Federal Reserve expectations despite sharply lower Oil prices.

The US Dollar (USD) trades firmly near Monday’s high ahead of the start of the two-day Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy meeting, whose decision will be announced on Wednesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) punched to a fresh all-time intraday high on Monday, climbing around 1% as Wall Street cheered a preliminary peace agreement between the US and Iran.

The US Dollar (USD) trades on the back foot against its major peers on Monday as traders trim safe-haven positions amid improving market sentiment after the United States and Iran agreed on a framework peace deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

According to BNY’s Bob Savage, the Dollar is trading within a broader risk-on environment after the U.S.-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz eased energy supply concerns. FX markets are highly sensitive to policy divergence, with USD trends reassessed alongside JPY and KRW.

MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes that the US Dollar has extended losses after the US and Iran reached an interim agreement to end conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Dow Jones futures gain over 1%, trading near 51,750 during the European hours on Monday, ahead of the US regular opening. However, S&P 500 futures rise 1.24% to near 7,530, and Nasdaq 100 futures advance 1.97%, trading near 30,250 at the time of writing.

ING analysts Chris Turner, Frantisek Taborsky and Francesco Pesole note that confirmation of a US-Iran ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have pressured the Dollar as energy prices fall and risk assets rally.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad notes that the Dollar has given back some post-payroll gains as optimism over a US-Iran breakthrough weighed on Brent Oil, but the bank still expects USD to edge higher near term.

The US Dollar (USD) has opened the week on its back foot, weighed down by an improved appetite for risk, following news of a peace deal between the US and Iran.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is losing ground and trading around 99.50 during the Asian hours on Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) climbed 0.6% on Friday, settling near 51,200 and outperforming the rest of the US majors on a day when the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slipped into the red.

United States Vice President JD Vance said on Friday that Iran would not receive cash or released funds simply for signing a potential agreement, pushing back against what he described as false information surrounding a possible deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end Iran’s nuclear weapons prog

MUFG analysts Lin Li, Michael Wan, Lloyd Chan and Khang Sek Lee argue that firmer US inflation and resilient labour markets underpin a higher-for-longer global rates backdrop, supporting the US Dollar.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad notes that the positive shift in US-Iran relations initially weighed on the US Dollar (USD), but he still expects the USD to edge higher near term.

The US Dollar (USD) retraces gains on Friday amid a brighter market mood.