The upcoming week will bring a fresh test for major currency pairs as investors look ahead to key United States (US) labor market data, ISM Manufacturing figures, Eurozone inflation releases, and central bank commentary from the Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (Bo
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is closing the week as the last major US index standing, having rallied more than 1% to settle just below 52,000, with the record high near 52,300 still in view. That reads as strength until you ask where the buying is coming from.
MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes the US Dollar is set for a second straight week of gains but has lost upward momentum as softer US GDP and PCE data, plus dovish comments from New York Fed President Williams, reverse recent hawkish repricing.
TD Securities strategists note that United States (US) rates markets steepened after weaker headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, while stronger personal income and spending data complicated the picture for the US Dollar (USD).
OCBC’s FX strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note the US Dollar (USD) rally has paused as global risk appetite improves, but highlight that sticky United States (US) inflation and steady labour data keep hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) risks alive.
DBS Group Research strategist Philip Wee notes that the US Dollar Index (DXY) has seen its first post-FOMC decline as US inflation data suggest a possible peak.
Dow Jones futures decline 0.13%, trading near 52,270 during the early European hours on Friday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures fall by 0.60% to near 7,380, and Nasdaq 100 futures plunge 1.29%, trading near 29,350 at the time of writing.
MUFG’s Lloyd Chan notes that strong United States (US macro data continue to support a high-for-longer US rates environment, with Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index inflation and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) both firm.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) had every excuse to extend on Thursday and declined instead. A firm batch of US data crossed the wires, yet the Dollar eased off the top of its multi-month rally, slipping back toward 101.45 after probing close to 101.75 earlier in the session.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) printed a fresh intraday record near 52,650 on Thursday before easing back toward 52,200, and the temptation is to read that high as a broad vote of confidence. It was nothing of the sort.
ABN AMRO strategist Georgette Boele notes that recent Dollar strength has been driven mainly by a reassessment of the Federal Reserve outlook, with markets now pricing in rate hikes into 2026. She argues this repricing may have gone too far, as ABN AMRO still expects Fed rate cuts around year-end.
MUFG’s Lee Hardman and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart note the US Dollar (USD) is trading close to year-to-date highs as markets debate whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) will follow its hawkish rhetoric with actual rate hikes.
Dow Jones futures advance 0.15%, trading near 52,350 during the European hours on Thursday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures are up by 0.80% near 7,490, and Nasdaq 100 futures rise 2.25%, trading near 30,180 at the time of writing.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, continues its winning streak for the fourth successive day and is trading around 101.60 during the European hours on Thursday.
ING’s Francesco Pesole argues the Dollar rally may be nearing its peak as calmer risk sentiment and softer Federal Reserve (Fed) pricing take hold.
The US Dollar (USD) reflects a subdued performance ahead of the United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for May, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the US Dollar (USD) is strengthening on a higher-for-longer Federal Reserve (Fed) outlook, some haven demand and mixed global equities. US Dollar Index (DXY) is pushing toward 102, with stronger resistance seen in the upper 102 area.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) pushed into fresh record territory again on Wednesday, but the way it got there is worth a second look. The index added roughly 1% and closed near 52,200, just below the all-time high around 52,300.
BNY’s Geoff Yu observes that recent US Dollar (USD) strength reflects United States (US) exceptionalism rather than fresh cross-border buying, as underweights have already been reduced.
DBS Group Research’s Philip Wee notes that the US Dollar (USD) has strengthened, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) at its highest since May 2025 after a hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).