MUFG’s Derek Halpenny notes that ongoing Middle East conflict, stronger United States (US) data and crude Oil risks are limiting US Dollar (USD) selling. Better manufacturing and retail figures have not shifted Fed expectations much, but a full hike remains priced by year-end.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad notes that the Dollar has recovered part of this week’s losses as a tech-led equity selloff spurs a modest flight to safety.
OCBC Bank strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that the US Dollar (USD) remains supported by its yield advantage and safe-haven status, with FX moves still fitting the USD smile framework.
Dow Jones futures fall by 0.65% to trade around 52,440 during European trading hours on Friday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures decline 0.88% and 1.69%, trading near 7,510 and 28,730, respectively. Traders await the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for July.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, attracts some sellers following an uptick on Friday, stalling its recovery from a nearly one-month trough, around the 100.35 region touched earlier this week.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, is seen oscillating in a narrow range just above the 100.50 level as traders await US President Donald Trump's speech.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added roughly 160 points, or 0.3%, to trade near 52,800 on Thursday while the S&P 500 slipped 0.2% and the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.9%.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes the US Dollar (USD) has steadied near a one‑month low after softer United States (US) Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data weighed on Fed funds pricing.
ING strategists Francesco Pesole, Frantisek Taborsky and Chris Turner note the Dollar remains under pressure after softer US CPI and PPI data, with FX volatility declining and Brent around $85.
MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes that the US Dollar has weakened, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) moving back towards 100.00 as softer June CPI and PPI data point to a lower monthly core PCE reading and reduced pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten policy.
Dow Jones futures edge lower by 0.02% to trade around 52,890 during European trading hours on Thursday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures decline 0.06% and 0.24%, trading near 7,610 and 29,620, respectively.
The US Dollar (USD) remains under pressure as traders have repriced the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate hike expectations. At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, holds onto Wednesday’s losses near 100.48.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, is seen consolidating around the 100.50 region during the Asian session on Thursday, close to the nearly four-week low touched the previous day.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average spent most of Wednesday rewarding the disinflation trade and the final two hours dismantling it.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad notes the Dollar has steadied after its post-CPI slide, with US economic outperformance, a higher-for-longer Federal Reserve stance and strong foreign demand for US securities limiting further downside.
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur notes that softer US inflation has reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes and pressured the US Dollar. June headline and core inflation fell more than consensus, leading markets to price out roughly half a hike by year-end.
MUFG’s Lloyd Chan notes that softer US inflation in June has reduced upside risks to US yields, leading markets to unwind much of the July Federal Reserve hike pricing and scale back tightening expectations for 2026.
Dow Jones futures inch lower by 0.04% to trade around 52,770 during European trading hours on Wednesday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures advance 0.19% and 0.79%, trading near 7,600 and 30,030, respectively.
MUFG’s Derek Halpenny notes that weaker US CPI has sharply reduced market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike, undermining a key source of recent US Dollar strength.
DBS Group Research economist Philip Wee warns that speculative long positions in the US Dollar (USD) look vulnerable after June US CPI surprised on the downside.
The US Dollar (USD) underperforms its major currency peers as traders have trimmed Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike expectations for the current year, following the release of the softer-than-expected United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) comes under selling pressure on Tuesday after softer-than-expected United States (US) inflation data prompted traders to scale back expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike.
The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.4% on the month against consensus for a 0.1% decline, following May's 0.5% increase, and the annual rate dropped to 3.5% from 4.2%, well under the 3.8% forecast. Core prices were flat MoM and eased to 2.6% YoY versus 2.8% expected.
Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister argues recent US Dollar strength rests on increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve expectations that may be overdone.
TD Securities strategists expect the US Dollar to retain some residual strength in Q3 as positioning normalizes and traditional safe-haven demand returns.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that the rebound in Oil is lifting US inflation expectations and supporting the Dollar. Haddad highlights sticky US inflation, a resilient labor market and US economic outperformance as factors keeping Fed pricing hawkish.
Dow Jones futures lose 0.26% to trade around 52,620 during European trading hours on Tuesday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures fall 0.03% and 0.42%, trading near 7,560 and 29,600, respectively.
MUFG’s Michael Wan notes the Dollar strengthened as US Treasury yields rose and equities sold off, helped by renewed US–Iran tensions and higher Oil prices.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, sticks to modest intraday losses through the early European session on Tuesday as bulls seem hesitant ahead of the latest US consumer inflation figures.
BNY Markets’ John Velis and David Tam note that June Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show softer headline inflation on lower energy, but recent events have lifted Oil prices again, complicating short-term forecasts.