The Federal Reserve chair used the largest speaking slot on the calendar to commit to nothing and the futures market repriced September anyway.

US Dollar Index (DXY) rallies on Friday, gaining 0.36% to trade around 99.50 at the time of writing, as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium prompt investors to sharply reassess the outlook for US interest rates.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes the US Dollar (USD) is mixed near a one‑week high as major FX pairs test key technical levels, including EUR/USD at its 200‑day moving average and USD/JPY near 160.00.

MUFG’s Derek Halpenny and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart argue that Jackson Hole only becomes a significant FX event for the Dollar when the Federal Reserve Chair delivers a clear policy surprise or commits to future action.

ING’s Chris Turner notes a quiet, risk-positive week for global markets, with low volatility and mixed G10 FX, as the Dollar debasement theme fails to extend.

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur notes the US Dollar has stabilized after last week’s setback, with Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech seen as the next key test.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is gaining minor support after registering minor losses in the previous day and trading around 99.20 during the Asian hours on Friday.

The US Dollar Index trades just above 99.00 on Thursday, unchanged on the session across a range of less than a fifth of a point. That sits roughly 2.6% beneath the June peak just under 102.00 and beneath a rolling 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 100.00 and a flat 200-day near 99.75.

The US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will be making direct asks to finance ministers at the G20 meeting, to cut off economic flows that sustain the Iranian regime and the Islamic Republic Guards Corps, according to Fox Business News (FBN).

The Dow Jones Industrial Average trades near 53,600 on Thursday, ahead 0.29% on the session across a range running from the 53,300 area to just above 53,700.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH Elias Haddad notes the US Dollar (USD) is consolidating gains, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) testing its 200‑day moving average resistance and United States (US) data showing Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index inflation stuck above the Fed’s 2% target

OCBC Bank strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong argue that Treasury buybacks are unlikely to trigger sustained Dollar weakness without clear Federal Reserve support to cap yields.

ING strategist Francesco Pesole sees recent United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data as consistent with disinflation but too gradual to force Federal Reserve (Fed) hikes this year.

Dow Jones futures gain by 0.18% to around 53,620 during European hours on Thursday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures rise by 0.41%, to trade near 7,720, and Nasdaq 100 futures advance by 0.89% to trade around 29,550.

UOB Global Economics & Markets Research notes that US PCE inflation for July slightly exceeded expectations, helping US Treasury yields to rise and supporting the US Dollar against most G10 currencies.

The US Dollar (USD) clings to previous day’s gains on Thursday, driven by a sticky United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index report for July.

The Dollar Index trades just above 99.00 and roughly a quarter of a percent higher, having printed its high just short of 99.25 after 14:00 GMT and not retested it since.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average trades a shade beneath 53,500 and roughly 100 points lower on the session, after a 12:30 GMT data drop the wires filed as uneventful.

ABN AMRO’s Georgette Boele notes that sentiment towards the Dollar is weakening as fiscal concerns and rising risk premia outweigh the support from higher US Treasury yields.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes the US Dollar (USD) is firm, consolidating just above recent lows following the US Treasury buyback announcement.

DBS Group Research economist Philip Wee notes that the DXY Index’s recent recovery stalled slightly above 99 and has reverted to a 98.5–99.0 range after last week’s sell-off linked to higher US long bond yields.

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur explains how the US Treasury Secretary’s vague secondary sanctions comments and falling US yields have left the Dollar stabilizing but vulnerable.

Dow Jones futures gain steadies around 53,650 during European hours on Wednesday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures decline by 0.11%, to trade near 7,680, and Nasdaq 100 futures fall by 0.23% to trade around 29,210.

The US Dollar (USD) nurses marginal gains on Wednesday and holds a mild recovery attempt from the three-month highs hit last week, but seems unable to extend gains past the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), just above 99.00, which keeps the broader bearish structure intact.

BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that U.S. cross‑border exposures have stabilized, with Dollar FX hedges broadly unchanged and U.S. equity holdings recovering as risk sentiment improves.

OCBC Bank strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that lower energy prices have helped pull US and European yields down, supporting a more benign macro backdrop without stoking USD debasement fears.

A non-voting regional Federal Reserve president published a conditional hold on Tuesday, tying the current target range to continued evidence that inflation is actually coming down, and the Dollar Index has not moved for it.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has built a 300-point advance and handed every point of it back inside a single vertical break, and it trades just beneath 53,500 for a gain of roughly a tenth of a percent. The session range runs better than 320 points against a net of 67.

TD Securities argues that Jackson Hole is more about Federal Reserve (Fed) credibility than new guidance for the US Dollar (USD). They see rate expectations staying anchored, but warn that any failure by Chair Warsh to reaffirm the inflation mandate could weigh on USD.

ING’s Francesco Pesole notes the Dollar is drawing support from the US bond market as long-dated yields stabilise, while US-Canada trade tensions and Iran-related sanctions risks complicate the outlook.