The US Dollar (USD) kickstarts the new trading week on the back foot as investors continue to assess news that a potential US-Iran deal could be clinched anytime soon.

Citing mediators, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Monday that progress toward finalizing an agreement to end the war between the United States (US) and Iran has slowed down on Monday, citing ongoing disaggreements over Iran's nuclear program and Tehran's demand of financial relief.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that the Dollar index (DXY) risks overshooting the top of its 96.00-100.00 range in the near term as resilient United States (US) growth outpaces peers.

Dow Jones futures advance 0.82% to near 50,100 during European hours on Monday. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 rise 0.93% above 7,550, and the Nasdaq 100 futures gain 1.38% above 29,950. Trading activity is expected to stay subdued as US regular markets will be closed due to the Memorial Day bank holiday.

The US Dollar (USD) gapped lower at the start of Monday’s session, retreating from the 99.30 area, the lower limit of last week’s trading range, to 99.00.

MUFG’s Lloyd Chan notes that higher US 2-year yields and elevated Brent prices are supporting broader USD strength, with markets now fully pricing one Fed rate hike by January 2027.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, currently trades near 99.05 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The DXY loses momentum as the prospect of a deal to end the Iran war buoyed risk appetite. 

Scotiabank’s global FX strategy team highlights the Dollar is ending the week on the offensive, with modest gains against most G10 currencies as markets focus on US–Iran developments and the swearing-in of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

MUFG’s Lloyd Chan notes that elevated US yields and increased expectations of further Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening are supporting the US Dollar (USD) in the near term. The 2-year and 10-year yields remain high, and markets are pricing a higher probability of Fed action by year-end.

OCBC’s Christopher Wong notes the Dollar Index is consolidating as it tracks UST yields, with softer Oil and slightly lower yields capping USD upside. The bank highlights key resistance around 99.40 and 100.50/60 and support near 98.30/50 and 97.50/60.

Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid notes that improved sentiment around a potential Iran deal helped the S&P 500 recover earlier losses and close slightly higher.

Dow Jones futures advance 0.26% above 50,500 during European hours ahead of the United States (US) regular opening on Friday. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 gain 0.28% toward 7,500, and the Nasdaq 100 futures rise 0.34% to near 29,550.

The US Dollar (USD) trades marginally higher during the early European trading session on Friday, even as market participants remain confident that the United States (US) and Iran will reach a deal soon.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, currently trades near 99.25 during the early Asian trading hours on Friday.

For most of Thursday the Dow Jones Industrial Average looked heavy, sliding to a session low near 49,700 as firmer Oil and a stubborn rise in yields did the work a static Federal Reserve (Fed) would not. Then the headline hit.

MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes the US Dollar is trading at stronger levels as higher US yields reflect growing expectations for multiple Federal Reserve rate hikes following the energy price shock. FOMC minutes signalled a gradual hawkish shift but did not fully endorse aggressive tightening.

OCBC’s FX Strategist Christopher Wong notes the Dollar Index eased as lower UST yields and softer Oil prices reduced safe-haven demand, with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes adding no new hawkish impulse.

Rabobank’s Michael Every and Joe DeLaura see US Dollar policy increasingly tied to energy and geopolitics.

BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that U.S. long-term inflation expectations, measured via 5y5y swaps, are catching up with Europe’s as markets price prolonged disruption risks. He expects further convergence, with up to 10bp upside.

The US Dollar (USD) gives back a majority of its early gains as the United States (US) Treasury Yields correct sharply due to growing optimism that the United States (US) and Iran will reach a deal soon.

Dow Jones futures fall 0.22% below 50,000 during European hours ahead of the United States (US) regular opening on Thursday. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 decline 0.27% to near 7,430, and the Nasdaq 100 futures plunge 0.42% toward 29,250.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is remaining steady after registering modest losses in the previous day and hovering around 99.10 during the Asian hours on Thursday.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades with a softer tone near the 99.10 region as improving market sentiment reduces safe-haven demand for the Greenback.

The Dow spent Wednesday hostage to two things it cannot control, the bond market and an Iran headline, and by the time of writing, the headline had won.

OCBC's FX Strategist Christopher Wong observes the Dollar Index (DXY) remains supported as higher UST yields and a softer risk tone underpin demand for the greenback. Christopher Wong emphasises the move is driven more by rates and risk-off dynamics than strong US fundamentals.

ING strategists Francesco Pesole, Frantisek Taborsky and Chris Turner highlight that higher real US yields and a bond market sell-off are reinforcing Dollar strength. They argue the move is driven by inflation concerns, making it supportive for USD.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, reflects strength ahead of the United States (US) stock markets' opening near its six-week high of 99.40.

MUFG’s Derek Halpenny argues that US Dollar strength is underpinned by rising US yields and a more hawkish shift from the Federal Reserve. He expects the FOMC minutes to reinforce inflation concerns and limit dovish expectations.

Dow Jones futures inch lower 0.08% to near 49,420 after experiencing volatility during European hours ahead of the United States (US) regular opening on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 gain 0.16% to near 7,390, and the Nasdaq 100 futures advance 0.51% toward 29,100.

DBS Group Research, via Senior FX Strategist Philip Wee, highlights that the USD Index (DXY) has stayed in a defined range even as the US Treasury 10Y yield climbs above 4.50%.