Forex markets have remained subdued since the beginning of the week, with the US Dollar (USD) holding near 99.00 as depicted by the US Dollar Index (DXY).
The Dow Jones Industrial Average trades near 52,900, roughly 190 points lower, in the first session since Friday. Crude Oil has risen for six days running and the two-year Treasury yield sits at its highest since January 2025. Neither is an equity story by itself.
National Bank of Canada's (NBC) Stéfane Marion and Kyle Dahms note that the US Dollar (USD) has weakened broadly in Q3 even as the United States (US) economy remains at full employment.
Dow Jones futures fall by 0.92% to trade near 52,950 during European hours on Tuesday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures decline by 0.41% to trade below 7,700, while Nasdaq 100 futures lose 0.24% to trade below 29,500.
The US Dollar (USD) recovers its early losses and turns marginally positive during the European trading session on Tuesday. At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally higher to near 98.95.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, remains under some selling pressure for the second straight day and drops to an over two-week low during the Asian session on Tuesday.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, extends its decline on Monday as a sharp rally in the Japanese Yen (JPY) outweighs support from elevated geopolitical tensions and Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike expectations.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes the US Dollar (USD) weakened on broad Japanese Yen strength before partially recovering as strong US August payrolls revived expectations for a September Fed hike.
ING’s Chris Turner notes that resilient global equities and an above-consensus US jobs report mean the Dollar should be stronger, but risk appetite is capping gains. He highlights upcoming US CPI and Treasury auctions as key catalysts.
OCBC’s Christopher Wong notes that stronger US payrolls initially lifted the US Dollar (USD) and US Dollar Index (DXY), but softer wage growth and only modest Fed repricing capped gains.
Dow Jones futures are down by 0.32% to trade near 53,270 during European hours on Monday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures steady near 7,720, while Nasdaq 100 futures advance by 0.31% to trade around 29,660. The US stock market will be closed Monday for the Labor Day holiday.
BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that strong U.S. payrolls have lifted September Fed hike odds back toward 60%, leaving rate expectations highly data-dependent as the Fed enters its blackout.