OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that despite renewed de-dollarisation headlines and AI-related equity volatility, the Dollar remains primarily driven by US macro data and Federal Reserve expectations.

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lee Hardman notes that stronger recent U.S. employment data have eased immediate pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates, but slowing inflation keeps the door open to further easing in 2026.

Dow Jones futures rise 0.36% to around 49,750 during European hours on Monday. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures rise 0.39% and 0.37%, respectively, trading near 6,880 and 24,900.

Deutsche Bank analysts note that AI-related fears have triggered a sharp repricing in equities, with over a trillion dollars of global equity value erased and volatility spreading beyond technology into wealth management, real estate and financials.

DBS Group Research’s Philip Wee revises US Dollar forecasts lower versus most major and Asian currencies, citing rising uncertainty around Federal Reserve leadership, de‑dollarization trends and US political risks into the November midterm elections.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, has recovered small losses from the previous session and is trading near 97.00 during the Asian hours on Monday.

The US Dollar (USD) lost major ground over the week, briefly gaining some strength after better-than-expected United States (US) jobs data, as the January Nonfarm Payrolls report showed 130K new jobs were added. Also, the Unemployment Rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) bounced back on Friday, climbing around 220 points to trade near 49,665 after opening at 49,366. The recovery followed Thursday's punishing 669-point selloff that was driven by fears of AI-led disruption across software, trucking, and real estate sectors.

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lee Hardman notes the US Dollar is ending the week on a firmer footing after stronger nonfarm payrolls, with particular gains versus the Australian Dollar and Norwegian Krone.

ING strategists Francesco Pesole, Frantisek Taborsky and Chris Turner say the Dollar is modestly supported into US CPI, helped by a tech-led risk-off tone and short-term undervaluation versus G10 peers.

Deutsche Bank analysts describe a broad risk-off session where the S&P 500 logged a third straight decline, led by heavy losses in software and mega-cap tech.

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lloyd Chan notes that the US Dollar stayed firm after stronger US nonfarm payrolls but lacked sustained upside as markets doubt how much further US rates can reprice in a hawkish direction.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% at its January 28 meeting, pausing after three consecutive quarter-point cuts in 2025.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dropped 555 points, or 1.1%, on Thursday as the ongoing rotation out of technology stocks accelerated into a broad market selloff.

OCBC’s FX strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong say stronger US non-farm payrolls reinforce a stabilising US labour market, allowing the FOMC to stay patient on rate cuts and limiting near-term Dollar downside.

DBS Group Research economist Philip Wee notes that the Dollar failed to gain traction even after stronger US nonfarm payrolls and a lower unemployment rate in January. He highlights that Federal Reserve officials see no need for additional rate cuts as inflation stays above target.

ING strategists Francesco Pesole, Frantisek Taborsky and Chris Turner note that strong US payrolls data triggered a hawkish Federal Reserve repricing but did not deliver a lasting boost to the Dollar.

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister notes that stronger US labour data briefly supported the Dollar, pushing EUR/USD back below 1.19, as markets priced out some interest rate cuts. However, he stresses this is only one data point and payrolls are often revised lower.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, trades on a softer note near 96.80 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The US weekly Initial Jobless Claims data is due later in the day.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) gave back early gains on Wednesday, shedding around 120 points to close down roughly 0.2% near 50,010 after briefly reclaiming the 50,000 handle in early trading.

ING strategist Francesco Pesole notes that recent Dollar weakness has been driven more by sentiment than data, but highlights that today’s US payrolls are pivotal.

MUFG's Senior Currency Analyst Michael Wan explains that weaker US retail sales and signs of cooling labour demand are clouding the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Fed fund futures now fully price a June rate cut and potentially more easing through 2026.

Societe Generale analysts note that the Dollar is on the back foot into US NFP, with recent weak retail sales driving a tactical bid in Treasuries.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, holds losses and is trading near 96.60 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.

Commerzbank’s Erik Liem flags the delayed US labour market report as the key driver for US rates and Dollar pricing, especially after the strong reaction to JOLTS.

Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke argues that January’s delayed US labor market report is unlikely to trigger major moves in the US Dollar, as Nonfarm Payrolls are expected around 70,000 with unemployment steady at 4.4%.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, trades on a weaker note near 96.65 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The delayed US employment report for January will take center stage later on Wednesday. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) extended its record streak on Tuesday, touching a fresh all-time intraday high of 50,509.22 before settling at 50,259.81, up 123.57 points or 0.25%.

Rabobank’s Michael Every highlights Trump’s suggestion that US growth could reach 15% under Fed Chair Warsh, implying a willingness to run the economy hot and supporting capital inflows into the Dollar.

MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes the US Dollar has weakened after the Dollar Index fell back below 97.000, with selling pressure linked to softer US labour market expectations and diversification concerns around US Treasuries.