BNY’s Bob Savage argues Oil markets will be driven by tanker availability, refining capacity and conflict duration, with crude above $80/bbl central to inflation and demand destruction risks.

Gold prices rose in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

Gold (XAU/USD) gains some positive traction during the Asian session on Friday and recovers a part of its losses recorded over the past two days.

Silver (XAG/USD) gains some positive traction during the Asian session on Friday and climbs back above the $85.00 mark in the last hour. The white metal, for now, seems to have snapped a two-day losing streak, though it remains on track to end the week on a flattish note.

 West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $95.75 during the early Asian trading hours on Friday. The WTI price surges due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid conflict involving the United States (US), Israel, and Iran.

Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said in his first public statement since being appointed that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz maritime passage should be continued as a “tool to pressure the enemy,” CNBC reported on Thursday. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) faces some selling pressure near $5,090 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal extends the decline amid a stronger US Dollar (USD) and higher Treasury yields.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil continues to experience extreme volatility, with prices rising more than 7.5% on Thursday as traders grow increasingly concerned about prolonged supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing US-Iran war.

TD Securities strategist Pooja Kumra highlights that markets are focused on the Strait of Hormuz and Iran conflict scenarios, with prediction markets assigning only modest odds to a ceasefire by April 2026.

The new Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, issued his first statement, which was shared on Iranian TV. Khamenei said that attacks on neighboring bases will inevitably continue and that Iran will not refrain from avenging the blood of its martyrs.

DBS Group Research’s Eugene Leow notes that despite a planned release of strategic reserves and expectations of a short conflict, WTI Oil has pushed above $90 per barrel.

In interviews with CNBC and CNN reported by Reuters, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that any release of Oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) would likely take the form of swaps, designed to address short-term supply disruptions without direct costs to taxpayers.

TD Securities Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes that Shanghai silver arbitrage signals strong Chinese demand, contrasting with cautious Western investors after the Iran conflict. London OTC markets are still absorbing flows and lease rates point to better availability.

Gold (XAU/USD) recovers earlier losses and trades broadly flat on Thursday as the US Dollar (USD) pauses its intraday advance and Treasury yields ease somewhat after rising earlier this week. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $5,170, rebounding from intraday lows near $5,125.

Societe Generale analysts describe Brent as having broken out of a large base and accelerated towards $120 before a steep pullback. The contract is holding above $81, with an upside gap near $93.80 and the $120 pivot high seen as a key hurdle.

ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey report LME Aluminium trading near four-year highs as Middle East conflict-driven supply risks support prices. Rising cancelled warrants and accelerating stock withdrawals point to growing physical tightness, particularly at Port Klang.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights that Brent crude Oil briefly moved back above $100 per barrel after tanker attacks near Iraq and Dubai, reviving stagflation concerns and pressuring bonds and equities.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $86.84 per troy ounce, up 1.28% from the $85.74 it cost on Wednesday.

Silver price (XAG/USD) pares its recent losses registered in the previous session, trading around $86.90 per troy ounce during the European hours on Thursday.

TD Securities’ James Rossiter argues that major central banks have shifted their reaction functions after recent supply shocks, now placing greater emphasis on inflation and expectations than on growth.

Rabobank’s RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets team highlights rising geopolitical risks around Iran and Hormuz as Brent Oil trades close to $100.

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lloyd Chan highlights that Brent Oil has risen above US$90/bbl as supply risks from Iraq and the Strait of Hormuz overshadow the International Energy Agency’s record 400 million barrel emergency reserve release.

Commerzbank strategists note that Oil and Brent prices extended gains even after the IEA agreed a record emergency release, as markets focus on hostilities around the Strait of Hormuz and potential US policy shifts to boost production.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil prices trim a part of strong intraday gains to the $94.75-$94.80 region on Thursday, though the downside seems limited amid supply disruption fears.

The Chinese government has effectively banned refined fuel exports for March "with immediate effect”, Reuters reported on Thursday. This measure comes as another step to pre-empt a potential domestic fuel shortage caused by the US-Israeli war on Iran.

Gold (XAU/USD) trades with a negative bias for the second consecutive day on Thursday, though it lacks follow-through selling and stalls the intraday slide near the $5,125 area.

Gold prices fell in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

Iran intensified its efforts to halt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil conduit. The US military has turned down requests to escort tankers or other civilian ships through the strait, with defense officials saying it won't do so until the threat of Iranian fire has eased.

Gold price (XAU/USD) extends its losses for the second successive session, trading around $5,150 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The bullion price slides as surging oil prices heightened inflationary risks and reduced the likelihood of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it launched a joint operation with Lebanon's Hezbollah against targets in Israel, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.