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BSP: Oil-driven inflation complicates rate path – MUFG

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Michael Wan assesses how higher Oil prices and a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure could affect Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas policy.

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Crude Oil sees sharp spike as Middle East tensions continue to sizzle

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil gained about 5% on Monday, but the headline figure disguised a wild session.

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Bittensor and Grass rally as AI crypto tokens broadly recover

The cryptocurrency market is regaining momentum amid the war in the Middle East, with Bittensor (TAO) and Grass (GRASS) posting notable gains at the time of writing on Monday, driven by rising investor interest and improving technical indicators.

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Canada: Modest February rebound expected labour market – NBC

National Bank of Canada (NBC) economists Alexandra Ducharme and Jocelyn Paquet expect Canada’s February Labour Force Survey to show a 10K employment gain after January’s decline, but projects the unemployment rate rising to 6.7% as participation ticks up to 65.2%.

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Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbles as Crude Oil surges past $100 a barrel

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) opened sharply lower on Monday as a weekend escalation in the US-Iran conflict sent crude Oil prices surging past $100 per barrel.

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EUR/USD steadies as markets reassess ECB and Fed outlook amid Oil surge

EUR/USD regains ground on Monday after opening the week with a bearish gap. The recovery comes as the US Dollar (USD) gives up earlier gains, allowing the Euro (EUR) to rebound from its lowest level in more than three months.

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GBP/USD slips as Oil surge, Iran conflict boost US Dollar

The British Pound losses some ground versus the US Dollar on Monday as risk aversion keeps the Greenback bid, sponsored by the escalation of the Iran conflict. This triggered a sudden jump of oil prices, which are up 11%, retreating after gaining nearly 30% during the Monday’s Asian session.

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AUD/USD rises on strong Chinese inflation, USD strength tempers gains

AUD/USD advances on Monday, trading around 0.7040 at the time of writing, up 0.24% on the day. The pair benefits from renewed demand for the Australian Dollar (AUD) as stronger-than-expected economic data from China provides support to currencies closely linked to Chinese growth.

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EUR/USD: Sentiment pressure and fragile support – Scotiabank

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret highlight that the Euro is weaker versus the Dollar despite a more supportive rate outlook as markets focus on geopolitical risks.

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Fed: Patience and data-driven cuts – TD Securities

TD Securities strategists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir argue that the Federal Reserve will stay on hold near term as the Iran conflict and mixed US labor data keep uncertainty elevated.

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EUR: Supported by relative growth and fiscal shifts – BNP Paribas

BNP Paribas Economic Research Team projects Euro appreciation versus the Dollar, supported by structural changes in US fiscal policy and an expected strengthening of growth in Europe.

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Ripple Price Forecast: XRP defends key support amid increasing capital outflows

Ripple (XRP) is holding above $1.35 at the time of writing on Monday as global markets continue pricing in the war in the Middle East. The remittance token faced significant capital outflows last week, reflecting sticky risk-off sentiment.

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JPY: Volatility shock could spur rebound – MUFG

MUFG strategists Derek Halpenny, Lee Hardman and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart note that the Japanese Yen has not yet benefited from the latest volatility spike, with the BoJ’s trade‑weighted JPY index near year‑to‑date lows.

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GBP/JPY advances as markets scale back BoE rate-cut expectations

GBP/JPY extends gains on Monday, rising for a third consecutive day as traders reassess the monetary policy outlook for the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) amid soaring Oil prices driven by the escalating US-Iran war, which is reviving global inflation concerns.

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Oil: Geopolitics, growth risks and rotation – HSBC

HSBC Asset Management discusses how recent geopolitical tensions have driven Oil higher and raised market volatility.

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EUR/JPY gains as Oil price surge, BoJ rate hike delay weigh on Yen

EUR/JPY trades around 183.20 on Monday, up 0.35% on the day at the time of writing, as the Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens against the Euro (EUR).

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USD: Haven role restored with Iran tensions – TD Securities

TD Securities analysts argue that ongoing Iran‑related tensions and an Oil price spike are restoring the US Dollar’s safe‑haven behavior.

Fed: Weak NFP complicates response to Oil shock – MUFG

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lee Hardman highlights that February nonfarm payrolls fell by 92k, reversing January’s gains and underscoring a still-weak underlying US labour trend.

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Gold remains vulnerable as US-Iran war, Fed rate outlook weigh on sentiment

Gold (XAU/USD) trims some intraday losses on Monday after coming under heavy selling pressure at the start of the week. The mild recovery comes as the US Dollar (USD) and Treasury yields ease somewhat from recent highs as markets digest shifting macro and geopolitical drivers.

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USD/JPY: Intervention talk and Dollar supply – ING

ING’s Chris Turner notes that USD/JPY is back in Japan’s FX intervention zone as global shocks and Oil prices surge. He sees coordinated US–Japan action as unlikely but warns that any such move could knock USD/JPY down by several big figures.

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Germany: Industry stuck in sideways pattern – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Senior Economist Dr. Ralph Solveen notes that German industry remains weak, with January industrial orders dropping sharply after earlier distortions from big ticket defense and public-sector contracts.

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EUR/USD: Bearish bias with energy shock repricing – Societe Generale

Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux highlights that soaring energy prices and Dutch gas strength are weighing on Euro sentiment, keeping EUR/USD under pressure. The bank notes that rate differentials are not driving the pair, with the focus instead on growth risks from higher Oil and gas.

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Mexico Core Inflation registered at 0.46%, below expectations (0.47%) in February

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Mexico Headline Inflation registered at 0.5% above expectations (0.43%) in February

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Mexico 12-Month Inflation registered at 4.02% above expectations (3.94%) in February

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Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP tick up as Oil prices surge amid US-Iran war

The cryptocurrency market remains relatively stable as the United States (US)-Israel war with Iran rages on. Bitcoin (BTC) is edging up above $68,000 at the time of writing on Monday, as Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) test recovery strength above $2,000 and $1.36, respectively.

USD/INR eyes lifetime highest closing near 92.80 amid energy supply shocks

The USD/INR pair looks all set for its lifetime highest closing at around 92.80 on Monday. The pair trades strongly higher as the Indian Rupee (INR) faces intense selling pressure amid war in the Middle East involving the United States (US), Iran, and Israel, which has spiked oil prices.

WTI jumps above $100 amid Middle East war, retreats on emergency reserve talks

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil surges on Monday, trading around $100.70 per barrel at the time of writing, up 13.70% on the day after briefly jumping above $110 during the Asian session, its highest level since mid-2022.

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