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Forex Today: US Dollar rallies on strong ADP jobs data and Trump’s Iran remarks

The US Dollar Index (DXY) strengthens toward the 99.30 region after the latest ADP employment report showed US private employers added 42,250 jobs on average over the previous four weeks, marking the strongest reading since the weekly series began in October 2025.

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United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock registered at -9.1M, below expectations (-3.4M) in May 15

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USD/JPY Price Forecast: Stalls near intervention area as bulls eye 160.00

USD/JPY rally extends for the seventh straight day, up 0.10% to a 12-day high of 159.25, despite growing fears of Japanese authorities intervening in FX markets. At the time of writing, the pair trades near 159.00.

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Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH hit the hardest as inflation and Treasury yields weigh on crypto market

Ethereum (ETH) is hovering around $2,110, up 0.5% on Tuesday after facing strong selling pressure over the past week. The top altcoin declined from above $2,300 after retail wallet distributions.

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China: Mixed April data signals challenges – HSBC

HSBC reviews China’s April 2026 data, noting soft Retail Sales and a sharp fall in Fixed Asset Investment alongside resilient services and solid Industrial Production. CPI remains stable while PPI accelerates on Oil and AI-related demand.

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XAG/USD Price Forecast: Silver struggles below key moving averages amid hawkish Fed bets

Silver (XAG/USD) remains under pressure on Tuesday as a stronger US Dollar and rising US Treasury yields continue to weigh on the precious metal amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may need to raise interest rates to tackle rising Oil-driven inflation pressures.

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Gold price plunges as Oil shock sends yields soaring

Gold (XAU/USD) price falls over 1.3% on Tuesday as the Greenback posts solid gains underpinned by US Treasury yields, with the 10-year note yield near a 16-month peak. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,506 after reaching a high of $4,589.

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BoJ’s Governor Ueda: Aware that long-term interest rates are rising rapidly

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda told reporters that they need to closely monitor signs of upward price pressure and that he will take appropriate monetary policy to achieve the BoJ inflation target, after a Group of Seven finance chiefs and central bankers' meeting in Paris on Tuesday.

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Euro weakens as strong ADP data and Trump’s Iran comments boost US Dollar

The EUR/USD pair weakens toward the 1.1600 region on Tuesday as the United States (US) Dollar (USD) strengthens following solid labor-market data and rising Treasury yields, while mixed developments in the Eurozone limit support for the shared currency.

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US Dollar Index hits more than one-month highs on Iran tensions and hawkish Fed bets

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, extends its rally on Tuesday, climbing near more than one-month highs as stalled US-Iran negotiations and hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations support the US Dollar.

WTI extends four-day rally as Trump pauses Iran strike but supply risks persist

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades around $103.20 at the time of writing on Tuesday, up 1.16% on the day and extending its advance for a fourth consecutive day.

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Polymarket taps Nasdaq, launching prediction markets linked to private companies 

Polymarket launched on Tuesday prediction markets linked to the performance of private companies, effectively providing investors with access to startups and unicorns with a combined valuation of over $5 trillion.

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Dow Jones Industrial Average stumbles as bond vigilantes line up to test Warsh

The Dow gave up a chunk of last week's record run on Tuesday, sliding back from the 50K handle it had briefly tagged days earlier, with the broader equity tape leaning lower as bonds did the heavy lifting on the downside.

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British Pound slides as US yields spike, UK jobs market cracks

The British Pound retreats by 0.31% during the North American session as the Greenback rises, underpinned by soaring US Treasury yields as investors price in a spike in inflation from the energy shock. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3392 after reaching a daily high of 1.3437.

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Canada: Energy-driven CPI rise supports BoC hold – RBC

Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economist Abbey Xu notes that Canadian inflation accelerated in April, mainly due to higher energy prices and fading base effects, while underlying pressures stayed contained.

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US President Trump: 'We may have to give Iran another hit, but I’m not sure'

United States (US) President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he might restart attacks on Iran, but that he hasn't made up his mind. He also claimed that Iran is begging to make a deal while speaking to reporters at the White House on Tuesday.

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Germany: Industrial pivot supports recovery – BNP Paribas

BNP Paribas economists note Germany is moving away from its traditional reliance on automotive and chemicals towards defence, aerospace and electronic equipment.

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5.197%: US 30-year Treasury yield hits highest level since July 2007

US 30-Year Treasury Yield and US 10-Year Treasury Yield continue to advance on Tuesday, with the 30-year yield trading at 5.195% and the 10-year yield at 4.683% at the time of writing.

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Oil: UAE exit, NOPEC risk and cartel fragmentation – Rabobank

Rabobank’s energy team sees the UAE’s departure from OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) as a potential catalyst for further cartel erosion and structurally lower Oil prices.

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Canadian Dollar gains against Euro despite softer domestic inflation data

The Euro (EUR) weakens against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) on Tuesday as rising Oil prices linked to the US-Iran conflict continue to support the commodity-linked Loonie, even as the latest Canadian inflation data came in softer than expected.

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New Zealand GDT Price Index: 0.6% vs previous 1.5%

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Zcash and Monero Outlook: Privacy coins hold steady as breakout momentum builds 

The cryptocurrency market is broadly facing headwinds on Tuesday as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East over the US-Iran conflict escalate, driving Oil prices above $103 for West Texas Intermediate (WTI).

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Canadian Dollar: Soft CPI delays recovery – TD Securities

TD Securities’ FX strategists Howard Du and Linda Cheng note that soft April Canada inflation and weak employment data should keep USD/CAD supported near 1.37 in Q2 2026.

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British Pound: Political relief offsets rate expectations – Scotiabank

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note GBP/USD is slightly lower versus the US Dollar (USD) but outperforming most G10 peers.

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US Dollar Index: DXY eyes range break – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that the US Dollar Index (DXY) is likely to overshoot the upper end of its 96.00–100.00 range as resilient United States (US) economic activity and a positive net energy balance support a more restrictive Federal Reserve (Fed).

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Aluminium: Inventories signal weak demand – Commerzbank

Barbara Lambrecht and Volkmar Baur at Commerzbank highlight diverging trends in Chinese metals. Aluminium output hit a record daily rate in April, driven by strong margins and breaching the official annual cap, yet domestic inventories have doubled to a six‑year high as demand lags.

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BoE: Inflation scenarios hinge on oil price path – DBS

Philip Wee of DBS Group Research explains how Oil prices shape the Bank of England’s (BoE) policy outlook. The baseline assumes Oil around USD108 supports manageable second-round inflation effects and may require one or two rate hikes.

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New Zealand Dollar weakens as USD holds firm on Iran deal hopes, Fed outlook

NZD/USD trades around 0.5835 on Tuesday at the time of writing, down 0.65% on the day as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) faces renewed selling pressure against the US Dollar (USD).

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