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Czech Koruna: Narrowing rate gap weighs on koruna versus Euro – ING

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky highlights that a less hawkish Central and Eastern European rates outlook is undermining Koruna strength. Markets have scaled back expected hikes in Poland and the Czech Republic, while Hungary is priced for sizeable cuts.

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United States Continuing Jobless Claims came in at 1.786M, above forecasts (1.78M) in May 15

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United States Gross Domestic Product Price Index declined to 3.5% in 1Q from previous 3.6%

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United States Personal Income (MoM) came in at 0% below forecasts (0.4%) in April

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United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) came in at 4.4%, above forecasts (4.3%) in 1Q

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Canada Current Account dipped from previous -0.7B to -7.2B in 1Q

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United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.4%, below expectations (0.5%) in April

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United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.2%, below expectations (0.3%) in April

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United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) in line with forecasts (3.3%) in April

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United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (3.8%) in April

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United States Personal Spending in line with expectations (0.5%) in April

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United States Gross Domestic Product Annualized came in at 1.6%, below expectations (2%) in 1Q

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Euro: Weak EU trade and sentiment weigh against US Dollar – BNY

BNY’s Bob Savage reports that European Union (EU) exports, especially to the United States (US), have weakened sharply and sentiment indicators remain below long‑run averages, underscoring subdued Eurozone momentum.

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Gold drops to fresh two-month low as markets focus on inflation risks, US PCE data

Gold (XAU/USD) falls to a fresh two-month low on Thursday as renewed attacks in the Middle East keep traders doubtful about a quick end to the US-Iran war. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading at $4,386 after hitting an intraday low of $4,366.

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Mexico Jobless Rate s.a down to 2.6% in April from previous 2.8%

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Mexico Jobless Rate came in at 2.5%, below expectations (2.7%) in April

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Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP edge lower as risk-off sentiment weighs amid escalating US-Iran tensions

Cryptocurrency prices are extending a broader sell-off on Thursday amid growing tensions between the United States (US) and Iran. Bitcoin (BTC) exhibits technical weakness, trading around $73,353 on the third consecutive day of declines.

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United States: Productivity-driven growth outlook – BNP Paribas

BNP Paribas argues that United States growth outperformance is being driven by strong productivity gains rather than immediate benefits from Artificial Intelligence.

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ECB Accounts: Number of members would not have opposed raising rates

The accounts of the European Central Bank's April policy meeting showed on Thursday that policymakers acknowledged that upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth have intensified.

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GBP/USD Price Forecast: Resumes decline after facing selling pressure above 20-day EMA

The GBP/USD pair trades 0.2% lower to near 1.3400 during the European trading session on Thursday. The pair is broadly under pressure due to fears of a resumption of the Middle East war after the exchange of attacks between the United States (US) and Iran.

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Eurozone: Inflation shock and recovery balance – ABN AMRO

ABN AMRO notes that the new energy shock will push Eurozone inflation higher, though less severely than in 2022–23, as gas price rises are smaller and electricity has decoupled from gas.

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Brent: War headlines drive sharp rebound – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid and team note that Brent Oil has rebounded strongly after fresh US defensive strikes and new sanctions on Iran, which reversed yesterday’s sharp decline to a one‑month low.

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 Japanese Yen picks up from lows but remains close to intervention levels

The Japanese Yen (JPY) trims losses against the US Dollar (USD) during Thursday’s European trading session, although it remains dangerously close to levels that allegedly triggered an intervention in April.

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South African Rand: Downtrend at risk of resuming – Societe Generale

Societe Generale technical analysts observe that the USD/ZAR downtrend has stalled after an interim low in January, with the pair capped by its 200-day moving average.

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Iran’s IRGC warns against disruption near Hormuz

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has threatened a decisive response against disruption near the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost 20% of global energy supply, during the European trading session on Thursday.

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US Dollar: Month-end pressures challenge greenback – BNY

BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that strong U.S. equity performance and broad Dollar buying have left global asset allocators heavily exposed to the Dollar into month-end.

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NZD/USD Price Forecast: Kiwi bounces up, nearing 0.5900 as US Dollar loses steam

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) holds minor losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, as it has retraced most of the daily losses during the London trading session.

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Gold Price Forecast: Trades near two-month low ahead of US PCE Inflation data

Gold price (XAU/USD) trades 1.43% lower to near $4,390 during the European trading session on Thursday, close to its fresh two-month low of $4.366.56 posted earlier in the day. The precious metal faces intense selling pressure as renewed Middle East crisis have prompted oil prices.

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