South Africa Producer Price Index (MoM) climbed from previous -0.2% to 0% in February

South Africa Producer Price Index (YoY): 1.8% (February) vs previous 2.2%

Eurozone M3 Money Supply (3m): 3% (February)

Italy Business Confidence rose from previous 88.5 to 88.8 in March

Italy Consumer Confidence down to 92.6 in March from previous 97.4

Eurozone Private Loans (YoY) came in at 3%, below expectations (3.1%) in February

Eurozone M3 Money Supply (YoY) below expectations (3.3%) in February: Actual (3%)

BNY strategist Geoff Yu argues that rising European real yields are increasingly offsetting traditional support for the Dollar from higher US real rates. He notes that the spread between US and European real rates has stayed tight, limiting further Dollar upside.

NZD/USD extends its losing streak for the third successive day, trading around 0.5780 during the European hours on Thursday. The technical analysis of the daily chart signals a bearish bias as the pair is consolidating within a descending channel pattern.

The Euro (EUR) edges up slightly against the British Pound (GBP) on Thursday, yet moving within previous ranges, following downbeat German consumer confidence figures and hawkish comments by European Central Bank (ECB) member and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel.

ABN AMRO’s Senior US Economist Rogier Quaedvlieg argues that US growth has slowed sharply outside AI-related activity, with near-zero job creation and downgraded GDP.

The USD/CHF pair ticks higher to near 0.7925 during the European trading session on Thursday. The Swiss Franc pair gains as the US Dollar (USD) holds onto gains amid growing doubts over an early ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran, following the release of Tehran’s conditions.

Dow Jones futures decline 0.39% below 46,550 during European hours, ahead of the United States (US) regular market open on Thursday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures fall 0.40% and 0.44% to near 6,610 and 24,250, respectively, at the time of writing.

Danske Research Team expects the central bank of Norway, Norges Bank (NB) to keep its policy rate unchanged at 4% at the upcoming meeting, reflecting Middle East-related uncertainty and volatile energy prices.

UOB economist analysts Quek Ser Leang Lee and Sue Ann report that GBP/USD traded softer, closing at 1.3366 after a narrower 1.3359–1.3436 range than expected. They see mild downward pressure intraday, though a move to 1.3320 is unlikely.

Spain Gross Domestic Product (YoY) registered at 2.7% above expectations (2.6%) in 4Q

Spain Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) meets expectations (0.8%) in 4Q

The AUD/USD pair struggles to gain any meaningful traction on Thursday and oscillates in a narrow range, just above a weekly trough set earlier this Thursday.

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading lower for the second consecutive day on Thursday, testing levels below the $70.00 psychological level at the time of writing.

France Consumer Confidence meets expectations (89) in March

France Business Climate in Manufacturing came in at 99 below forecasts (100) in March

EUR/JPY halts its four-day winning streak, trading around 184.20 during the European hours on Thursday. The currency cross holds losses as the Japanese Yen (JPY) draws support from rising expectations of a near-term rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

Rabobank’s Philip Marey and Kan Ji argue that higher global Oil prices from the Iran conflict will push US inflation higher and keep it more persistent.

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, March 26:

The USD/JPY pair trades sideways around 159.40 during the European trading session on Thursday. The pair seems to be following the footprints of the US Dollar (USD), which clings to the previous day’s high amid uncertainty surrounding the war in the Middle East.

Commerzbank analyst Michael Pfister notes that the central bank of Norway, Norges Bank is set to decide policy after previously signalling only gradual cuts, making a rate reduction unlikely, especially following the Iran war.

Danske Research Team notes global equities extended gains, with Stoxx 600 up 1.4% and S&P 500 up 0.5% in a geopolitical reversal trade. Cyclicals outperformed defensives, though investors remain only cautiously optimistic.