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BRL: Aggressive easing and currency risks – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister expects the Brazilian central bank to start its cutting cycle, with consensus looking for an initial move after a long hold at 15%. He sees scope for a 25 or 50 basis point cut and anticipates the pace to accelerate later in 2026.

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Russia Producer Price Index (MoM) climbed from previous -2.5% to 0.5% in February

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Russia Producer Price Index (YoY) declined to -5.2% in February from previous -5%

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BoC: Dovish hold with skew to easing – TD Securities

TD Securities strategists report that the Bank of Canada (BoC) kept its policy rate at 2.25% and dropped guidance that the current rate is appropriate.

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USD/CAD eases toward 1.3700 as BoC holds rates, Fed decision in focus

USD/CAD trims part of its earlier gains on Wednesday as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) finds some support following the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) monetary policy announcement.

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Bunds: Energy shock mix shapes ECB path – ABN AMRO

ABN AMRO’s Senior Fixed Income Strategist Larissa de Barros Fritz analyzes how different Oil and Gas shocks affect ECB expectations and Bund yields. She notes that demand-driven Oil shocks, speculative inventory moves, and supply disruptions each have distinct rate and curve impacts.

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Fed: Powell set to delay cuts – ING

ING’s Benjamin Schroeder expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep rates unchanged at its March FOMC meeting as higher Oil prices and elevated inflation expectations constrain policy. He notes markets see no cut today, with the first reduction only fully priced by year-end.

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United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change above expectations (0.4M) in March 13: Actual (6.156M)

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Canada: Spending data shows tentative resilience – RBC

Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economists Rachel Battaglia and Abbey Xu report that Canadian cardholder spending improved modestly in February, even as consumers continued to reduce discretionary goods purchases.

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US issues 60-day waiver of Jones Act in an attempt to lower energy prices

The White House announced on Wednesday that they have issued a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act shipping law, per Reuters.

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SEK: Riksbank to stay patient through energy shock – TD Securities

TD Securities expects the Sweden's central bank, Riksbank to keep its policy rate unchanged at 1.75%, noting that pre-Iran conflict inflation was running below December projections.

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United States Factory Orders (MoM) in line with forecasts (0.1%) in January

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USD: Fed signal watched as inflation shock looms – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes the Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep the funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, with markets focused on the vote split, dot plot and Chair Powell’s tone.

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Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (2.25%)

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Copper: Inventory surge weighs on prices – ING

ING commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Copper prices have come under pressure following a sharp increase in exchange inventories. LME Copper stocks have risen to their highest level since 2019, driven by inflows into Taiwan and Baltimore.

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EUR/GBP steadies as traders await BoE and ECB policy decisions amid inflation risks

EUR/GBP holds firm on Wednesday after paring earlier losses, as steady Eurozone inflation data underpins the Euro (EUR), leaving the British Pound (GBP) under modest pressure.

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Qatar's Foreign Ministy: Israel's targeting of Iran's South Pars gas field is a dangerous step

A spokesperson for Qatar's foreign ministry said on Wednesday that Iran's South Pars gas field is an extension of Qatar's North Field, per Reuters.

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EUR/JPY trades sideways as ECB, BoJ policy decisions loom

EUR/JPY trades around 183.50 on Wednesday at the time of writing, remaining virtually unchanged on the day as investors stay cautious ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) monetary policy decisions on Thursday.

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EM FX: Real rate support limits selling – BNY

BNY’s EMEA Macro Strategist Geoff Yu notes that Emerging Market FX carry trades remain resilient despite the Middle East conflict, with only INR and RON now underheld among 12 high-yielders.

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Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP slide despite market sentiment mildly improving

Cryptocurrency prices are edging lower, as reflected by Bitcoin (BTC) falling below $73,000 at the time of writing on Wednesday. Ethereum (ETH) hovers below $2,300, mirroring Bitcoin’s volatility, while Ripple (XRP) extends its correction beneath the pivotal $1.50 level.

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GBP/USD: Softer UK labour data keeps BoE easing bias – TD Securities

TD Securities analysts project further loosening in UK labour conditions, with employment falling, unemployment rising to its COVID peak of 5.3%, and wage growth easing but still elevated.

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US headline Producer Prices rose by 3.4% YoY in February

US Producer Prices rose 3.4% in February from a year earlier, according to the latest figures from the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS). The print came in well above estimates (2.9%) and the 2.9% gain recorded in the previous month.

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Fed: Dovish hold seen as reasonable – ING

ING economist Rogier Quaedvlieg argues that the latest energy shock, driven by the Strait of Hormuz closure, is a cost‑push shock that raises US inflation while weakening growth.

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Ripple faces pressure as card giants Visa and Mastercard enter the stablecoin race

Ripple is facing new competition in the stablecoin payments race from payment giants such as Visa and Mastercard. The shift in market focus to stablecoins for cross-border payments, micro-transactions, and agentic-economy support is brewing competition and reinvigorating investor interest in Ripple.

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Canada Foreign Portfolio Investment in Canadian Securities registered at $46.73B above expectations ($4.72B) in January

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Canada Canadian Portfolio Investment in Foreign Securities declined to $11.39B in January from previous $13.06B

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United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) above forecasts (3.7%) in February: Actual (3.9%)

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United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) came in at 0.5%, above forecasts (0.3%) in February

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