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British Pound: Steady against US Dollar before key BoE and data – Scotiabank

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note that the British Pound (GBP) is consolidating recent gains around 1.3400, with domestic risk elevated ahead of next week’s CPI, labour data and the Bank of England decision.

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Canadian Dollar: Overbought Dollar holds near 1.40 ceiling – Scotiabank

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret observe that the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is weighed down by weaker Oil prices linked to Iran peace hopes, even as improved risk appetite offers some support.

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New Zealand Dollar dips as robust US sentiment, inflation data underpin US Dollar

NZD/USD trades around 0.5830 on Friday at the time of writing, down 0.15% on the day as the US Dollar (USD) maintains a firm tone following a series of strong US economic releases.

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European Central Bank: Hawkish forecasts point to higher terminal rate – Nomura

Nomura’s European Economics team, led by Andrzej Szczepaniak and colleagues, notes that the ECB delivered a 25bp hike to a 2.25% depo rate and unveiled more hawkish forecasts.

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Bank of England: Hold stance extended as inflation risks linger – TD Securities

TD Securities economists expect the Bank of England (BoE) to keep Bank Rate at 3.75% with a 7-2 vote as Greene joins Pill in calling for a hike. They highlight persistent inflation pressures, upside risks from energy and airfare, and softer demand.

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United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations dipped from previous 4.8% to 4.6% in June

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United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation declined to 3.4% in June from previous 3.9%

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United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index came in at 49.3, above forecasts (44.3) in June

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United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index above expectations (46) in June: Actual (48.9)

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British Pound: Poised to fall toward 1.3100 against US Dollar – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad says GBP/USD has given back part of its US-Iran-related gains and is expected to fall to 1.3100 as United States (US) growth outpaces the United Kingdom (UK).

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Federal Reserve: Warsh policy shift and inflation focus – NBC

National Bank of Canada (NBC) strategists assess how Kevin Warsh may reshape Federal Reserve (Fed) policy.

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Ripple Price Forecast: XRP bulls attempt breakout despite softening institutional and retail demand

Ripple (XRP) hangs on to $1.14 support at the time of writing on Friday, extending its rebound from its early-week support at $1.10 and June’s low of $1.05.

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US Dollar: Peace deal talk keeps support intact – ING

ING’s Chris Turner notes that a potential US-Iran peace deal has softened the Dollar, but DXY is still holding firm. He highlights that energy supply losses and inflation risks persist unless Oil flows freely through the Strait of Hormuz.

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WTI Price Forecast: RSI points lower as prices remain below key SMAs

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) pares some part of earlier losses on Friday as markets seek confirmation of a possible US-Iran agreement, prompting traders to refrain from placing aggressive bearish bets.

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Indian Rupee: External shocks pressure currency outlook – Commerzbank

Commerzbank analysts Charlie Lay and Moses Lim argue that the Rupee remains vulnerable to external shocks, notably Middle East tensions, higher energy costs and El Nino-related risks.

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Gold: Fed expectations cap upside for now – TD Securities

TD Securities strategists note that Precious Metals, particularly Gold, are struggling to gain traction as elevated Fed hike probabilities keep real rates high. CTA's (Commodity Trading Advisors) are running a small net short and scenario analysis points to a relatively tight trading band.

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Canadian Dollar dips as softer Oil, robust US inflation weigh on CAD

USD/CAD trades higher around 1.3990 on Friday, with the US Dollar (USD) benefiting from stronger-than-expected inflation data in the United States (US), while the Canadian Dollar (CAD) remains weighed down by falling Oil prices and a Bank of Canada (BoC) that is showing little urgency to raise rates

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European Central Bank: Further rate hikes seen despite softer Oil – Nordea

Nordea’s Jan von Gerich highlights that the ECB delivered a widely expected 25bp hike and is likely to continue tightening, with the next move expected in July. He argues that broadening inflation pressures mean lower energy prices alone will not ease ECB concerns.

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Copper: Tariff risks keep spreads elevated – ING

ING’s Commodities Strategist Ewa Manthey notes that LME copper is trading near record highs, supported by supply tightness, US tariff-driven stockpiling and AI-related power demand. The market is already pricing US tariff risk, with the COMEX-LME spread around $400/t.

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Canada Capacity Utilization remains unchanged at 78.5% in 1Q

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Mexican Peso: Steady outlook faces USMCA risks – Societe Generale

Societe Generale strategists note Mexico still appears steady even as conditions become more challenging. Inflation has cooled to 3.94% in May, while Banxico has signalled an end to its easing cycle, leading markets to price potential hikes.

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Fed: Warsh era starts with cautious stance and delayed cuts – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Bernd Weidensteiner and Christoph Balz argue that Kevin Warsh’s first Federal Reserve meeting is unlikely to deliver an immediate rate cut, given elevated PCE inflation and a still‑solid labor market.

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Gold holds near $4,200 as traders weigh US-Iran deal prospects

Gold (XAU/USD) consolidates on Friday as traders await further developments on a potential US-Iran peace deal. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading flat around $4,200 after recovering from a nearly seven-month low of $4,023 touched the previous day.

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British Pound: Policy divergence seen weigh against Euro – Nomura

Nomura’s Global FX Strategy team, including Dominic Bunning and Yusuke Miyairi, argues that a more hawkish ECB path versus the Bank of England should support the Euro against the Pound.

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Brazil IPCA Inflation came in at 0.58%, above expectations (0.53%) in May

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Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP recovery slows amid incessant capital outflows

The cryptocurrency remains in a broader corrective bias on Friday, despite majors such as Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Ripple (XRP) holding slightly higher than early-week support levels. Bitcoin hovers around $63,500 amid a capped upside.

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EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bulls struggle to breach a previous support near 1.1600

The Euro (EUR) has given away previous daily gains against the US Dollar (USD) and is trading practically flat, at 1.1575 at the time of writing.

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US Dollar: Higher-for-longer backdrop supports USD – MUFG

MUFG analysts Lin Li, Michael Wan, Lloyd Chan and Khang Sek Lee argue that firmer US inflation and resilient labour markets underpin a higher-for-longer global rates backdrop, supporting the US Dollar.

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