South Africa Producer Price Index (YoY) up to 2.3% in March from previous 1.8%

South Africa Producer Price Index (MoM): 1.1% (March) vs 0%

MUFG’s Lee Hardman highlights that EUR/USD has slipped back below 1.1700 as the Euro corrects lower into the ECB meeting.

The Euro (EUR) has pulled back form two week highs above 187.50 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Thursday, retreating to 186.20 at the time of writing, as Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama launched a clear intervention warning.

Societe Generale strategists expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to keep rates unchanged today despite a hawkish bias after past late tightening. It warns that unresolved Gulf tensions in six weeks could make a future rate hike more contentious as growth risks rise.

NZD/USD gains ground after two days of losses, trading around 0.5840 during the European hours on Thursday. The technical analysis of the daily chart signals an emerging bearish bias as the pair remains below the ascending channel.

Danske Research Team highlights that Brent has surged to around USD 124–126 per barrel as Iran-related tensions and a US naval blockade drive supply fears. They note Polymarket-implied odds of only a modest chance of normalised Hormuz traffic by end-May.

USD/JPY trades around 159.50 on Thursday, down 0.59% on the day, after reaching its highest level since July 2024 at 160.73 earlier in the day.

Greece Retail Sales (YoY) rose from previous 4.5% to 4.6% in February

Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0.9% (April) vs 0.8%

Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) below forecasts (0.9%) in 1Q: Actual (0.8%)

Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) below forecasts (0.2%) in 1Q: Actual (0.1%)

Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) came in at 2.2% below forecasts (2.3%) in April

Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) down to 1% in April from previous 1.3%

Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) above forecasts (0.5%) in April: Actual (1.2%)

Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) registered at 1.7% above expectations (1.3%) in April

Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.8%, above expectations (2.6%) in April

Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) came in at 2.9%, above expectations (2.5%) in April

Francesco Pesole at ING argues that Bank of England (BoE) tightening expectations, now close to European Central Bank (ECB) pricing, look excessive given the higher starting rate and less hawkish BoE stance.

The GBP/JPY pair surrenders its entire early gains after posting an intraday high of 216.60 and turns negative to near 215.60, as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens after a strong verbal warning of intervention by Japan’s Finance Minister (FM) Satsuki Katayama.

Dow Jones futures decline 0.52%, trading near 48,750 during the European hours on Thursday, ahead of the United States (US) regular opening. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 fall 0.05%, to near 7,160. However, Nasdaq 100 futures advance 0.17%, to near 27,370.

Deutsche Bank economists expect the Bank of England (BoE) to keep rates at 3.75%, stressing two-sided risks as growth forecasts are cut and inflation projections raised.

Portugal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) declined to 0% in 1Q from previous 0.9%

Portugal Gross Domestic Product (YoY) climbed from previous 1.9% to 2.3% in 1Q

Italy Unemployment came in at 5.2% below forecasts (5.3%) in March

Rabobank’s Senior Macro Strategist Bas van Geffen notes the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75%, with internal dissent over easing bias. He still projects two rate cuts under an incoming Chair Warsh but stresses risks are skewed toward fewer cuts.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, gives up its early gains after posting a fresh over seven-week high at around $107.35 and flattens to near $104.85 during the European trading session on Thursday.