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USD: Inflation shock risk from Hormuz blockade – MUFG

MUFG’s Derek Halpenny argues that the ongoing United States (US) blockade in the Strait of Hormuz is building a significant inflation shock for the US and globally, with Oil and input costs surging.

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United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count down to 407 from previous 410

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Dow Jones Industrial Average futures flat as Iran diplomacy wobbles, UoM sentiment beats

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) futures are trading broadly flat in the early afternoon GMT on Friday, holding above 49,100 after a choppy session that saw prices swing between 48,900 and 49,500.

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EUR/USD rebounds as renewed US-Iran talks hopes lift risk sentiment

EUR/USD rises on Friday, snapping a three-day losing streak as prospects of renewed US-Iran peace talks lift market sentiment and weigh on the US Dollar (USD). At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.1715, up 0.27% on the day, recovering from two-week lows.

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Aave Price Forecast: AAVE upside capped below $100 as DeFi rallies to support KelpDAO recovery

Aave (AAVE) trades around $93.33 as of writing on Friday, as the liquidity crunch within decentralized finance (DeFi) continues to ripple in the sector following Sunday’s exploit on KelpDAO.

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GBP/USD rises as Iran talk hopes weigh on US Dollar demand today

GBP/USD advances on Friday as improved risk appetite weighed on the US Dollar’s safety appeal amid growing speculation that a second round of talks between the US and Iran looms. A three-week extension of the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon added to traders’ optimism.

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EUR/GBP trades range-bound as UK data supports Pound ahead of ECB and BoE meetings

EUR/GBP trades in a tight range on Friday, fluctuating between minor gains and losses as markets show a muted reaction to the latest economic data, with traders remaining focused on geopolitical developments surrounding the US and Iran.

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GBP: BoE holds as energy shock clouds outlook – Nomura

Nomura’s George Buckley and team expect the Bank of England (BoE) to leave Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% next week, with a likely 8-1 vote and Huw Pill as the sole hawk.

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AUD/USD rebounds as softer USD and risk recovery lift the Aussie

AUD/USD is pushing higher toward the 0.7140 area on Friday, as the US Dollar (USD) loses momentum despite ongoing Middle East noise, allowing risk-sensitive currencies to recover.

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EUR/USD: Losses steady near support – Scotiabank

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report that weaker German IFO data, weighed down by Gulf tensions and energy price concerns, has softened the outlook for German growth but had little immediate impact on the Euro.

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USD/CAD edges lower as softer US Dollar, higher Oil bolster Canadian outlook

USD/CAD trades around 1.3685 on Friday, down 0.12% on the day, as the pullback in the US Dollar (USD) dominates price action despite a still fragile geopolitical environment.

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USD/JPY: Supported but capped below 160 – DBS

DBS Group Research’s Chang Wei Liang says Japan’s March Consumer Price Index (CPI) data show underlying price pressures, with headline and core-core inflation edging higher and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) reportedly set to raise its inflation forecast.

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WTI: Higher path feeding BoC inflation forecasts – TD Securities

TD Securities strategists expect the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) to embed significantly higher Oil assumptions, with Brent at USD 90 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at USD 85, versus a prior USD 55 WTI baseline.

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ECB: Expected to hike in June as inflation risks build – Commerzbank

Commerzbank's Dr. Jörg Krämer and Bernd Weidensteiner expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to leave rates unchanged next week but still project a June hike if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked and inflation risks persist.

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GBP/USD: Retail data underpins modest upside – Scotiabank

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note that stronger-than-expected United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales, driven largely by fuel purchases, have supported the Pound (GBP), though broader UK data still point to a softer growth outlook.

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Powell probe may be dropped by the US DoJ – ABC News

According to reports by ABC News, the US Department of Justice (DoJ) is expected to drop its investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday, which could delay the confirmation of Trump’s appointee, Kevin Warsh, to become the next chief of the US central bank.

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EUR/HUF: MNB holds rates as geopolitical risks persist – ING

ING analysts Frantisek Taborsky and Zoltán Homolya expect central bank of the Hungary, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) to keep its base rate unchanged at 6.25% throughout 2026.

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BoE: Hold stance and resilient UK data – TD Securities

TD Securities economists, including Julie Ioffe and colleagues, expect the Bank of England to keep Bank Rate at 3.75% in a unanimous decision, maintaining a wait-and-see stance.

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Zcash Price Forecast: ZEC gains momentum as bulls eye 12% upside move

Zcash (ZEC) is grinding up above $355 at the time of writing on Friday, shrugging off emerging headwinds in the broader crypto market. The privacy-oriented token tested support at $300 on Sunday, allowing bulls to increase their risk exposure and build momentum for the current gains.

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United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations came in at 4.7%, below expectations (4.8%) in April

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United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index above expectations (46.1) in April: Actual (48.1)

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United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation registered at 3.5% above expectations (3.4%) in April

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United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index registered at 49.8 above expectations (47.6) in April

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USD/JPY: Tight range as BoJ risk underpriced – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes USD/JPY is consolidating just below 160.00 after slightly hotter March Consumer Price Index (CPI) that leaves Bank of Japan (BoJ) expectations unchanged for now.

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BoC: Policy hold as inflation assessed – NBC

National Bank of Canada (NBC) analysts Ethan Currie and Taylor Schleich expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) to keep its overnight target at 2.25%, extending a fourth consecutive hold.

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Reuters poll: Economists see ECB on hold in April, June hike odds rise

The latest Reuters surveys highlight a gradual shift toward tighter monetary policy expectations in the Eurozone, with a more pronounced tightening bias than previously anticipated.

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Fed: Patience before gradual cuts as inflation elevated – Commerzbank

Commerzbank's Dr. Jörg Krämer and Bernd Weidensteiner expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% at the upcoming meeting, resisting political pressure for cuts as inflation remains above target and oil-driven price shocks persist.

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Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD struggles below medium-term SMAs, bearish tone intact

Silver (XAG/USD) trades flat on Friday, lacking clear direction as upside remains capped by Oil-driven inflation linked to ongoing US-Iran tensions, which have raised expectations of a prolonged higher interest rate environment.

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