Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence: -16.4 (May) vs -19.2

Societe Generale economists highlight that Euro area growth nearly stalled in 1Q, with 0.1% qoq GDP and weak confidence indicators. They argue downside risks to growth are rising even as headline inflation is set to climb further.

Turkey Exports up to $25.4B in April from previous $21.9B

Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI in line with forecasts (52.2) in April

Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 52.4 (April) vs previous 54.5

Crude prices appreciate again on Monday despite US President Donald Trump’s pledge to rescue Hormuz vessels. The US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) barrel trades at $99.40 at the time of writing, about $3 up from the daily opening price of $96.46.

Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI registered at 51.4 above expectations (51.2) in April

DBS Group Research economist Philip Wee expects the Dollar’s April weakness to persist into May, as the USD’s earlier two-month rise unwinds.

France HCOB Manufacturing PMI meets expectations (52.8) in April

Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.1, above expectations (51.6) in April

BNY’s Bob Savage notes that April’s 10% S&P 500 surge, the strongest in 33 years, reversed a prior defensive rotation from big tech into Energy, Materials and Industrials and into cash.

Austria Unemployment Rate: 7.5% (April)

Austria Unemployment: 320.3K (April) vs previous 322.7K

Solana (SOL) trades above $85 at press time on Monday, starting the week on a bullish note amid broader market recovery. The rising retail demand is fueling activity in SOL derivatives while institutions remain on the sidelines.

Switzerland SVME - Purchasing Managers' Index came in at 54.5, above forecasts (53.5) in April

ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey say the Oil market has stabilised after a volatile week driven by concerns over Persian Gulf disruptions and the expiry of the ICE Brent Jun-26 contract.

Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI climbed from previous 48.7 to 51.7 in April

The Euro (EUR) opens the week on a soft note against the British Pound (GBP). The pair shows moderate losses, as Friday’s upside attempt from the 0.8620 lows failed to find acceptance above a previous support area at 0.8640, which leaves the year-to-date low, at 0.8611, exposed

Here is what you need to know on Monday, May 4:

Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen notes that EUR/USD has nearly returned to pre-war levels as the Euro (EUR) proves resilient and the US Dollar (USD) retreats. Markets expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to hike in June, but Nguyen doubts pricing for three hikes by year-end.

The USD/CAD pair recovers some lost ground near 1.3595 during the early European trading hours on Monday. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) on lower crude oil prices. The US and Canadian employment data for April will be the highlights later on Friday. 

Turkey Consumer Price Index (YoY) registered at 32.37% above expectations (31.25%) in April

Turkey Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 4.18% above expectations (3.28%) in April

MUFG’s Michael Wan highlights that Japanese authorities likely intervened in FX markets as USD/JPY dropped from near 160 to below 157, with estimated operations of JPY5-6 trillion. He notes these efforts mirror past interventions in 2022 and 2024.

The US Dollar (USD) pares previous losses against the Japanese Yen (JPY) ahead of the European session opening on Monday. The pair is trading at the 156.80 area at the time of writing after dropping about 150 pips in a matter of minutes during the Asian session, hitting session lows near 155.70.

UOB strategists note that Brent crude has just recorded its largest monthly percentage decline since December 2025, despite briefly spiking above USD 126/bbl on renewed Strait of Hormuz concerns.

Sweden Manufacturing PMI rose from previous 56.3 to 57.2 in April