Societe Generale’s Dev Ashish reviews Colombian presidential election dynamics ahead of the May 31, 2026 vote, noting that polls suggest a runoff where a unified right has an advantage over the Historic Pact candidate.

AUD/USD stages a sharp reversal on Monday after opening the week with a gap lower, as investors reassess evolving geopolitical developments in the Middle East and the prospects for a US-Iran deal.

Danske Bank’s Louise Aggerstrøm Hansen and Asger Wilhelm Dalsjö report that Danish private consumption strengthened in March, with real spending excluding energy up 1.2% month-on-month and 3.8% year-on-year.

The US President Donald Trump spoke on a press conference at the Oval Office and praised the Vice-President JD Vance work on Iran as he said that he “has done a very good job on Iran.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) edged lower on Monday, slipping around 50 points to trade near 47,900 after recovering from a much steeper drop at the open. The S&P 500 rose 0.2% to trade above 6,800, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.6% to push above 23,000.

The cryptocurrency market commences the week weighed down by deteriorating sentiment after peace talks between the United States (US) and Iran failed to yield a deal in Pakistan over the weekend. Bitcoin (BTC) hovers above $72,000 at the time of writing on Monday, building on support at $71,000.

Silver (XAG/USD) trades around $74.10 on Monday at the time of writing, down 2.23% on the day after briefly dropping to an intraday low near $72.61. The white metal is attempting to stabilize its losses but remains under pressure as the US Dollar (USd) strengthens amid rising geopolitical tensions.

Deutsche Bank economists say Germany’s recovery is being pushed back by higher energy costs and uncertainty linked to the Middle East conflict. They cut their 2026 growth forecast to 1.0% while keeping 2027 at 1.5%. Inflation is projected to average 2.7% this year.

USD/CHF edges lower on Monday but lacks follow-through selling as escalating US-Iran tensions and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates higher for longer, driven by rising Oil prices, help limit downside in the US Dollar (USD).

The Pound Sterling remains firm on Monday as talks between Iran and the US disappointed investors, triggering a reaction from the White House, while recent news suggested that Tehran could be considering abandoning uranium enrichment, a key condition set by the US to end the war.

The USD/JPY pair is trading with a neutral tone near 159.70 on Tuesday, up 0.27%, as markets react to a dramatic escalation in geopolitical tensions following headlines that the United States (US) has moved to effectively shut down traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil trades around $95.70 per barrel on Monday at the time of writing, rising 5.90% on the day but still struggling to regain the $100 threshold after last week’s sharp volatility.

The British Pound (GBP) strengthens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Monday, with GBP/JPY extending its rally for a sixth consecutive day as rising Oil prices continue to weigh on the Yen. At the time of writing, the cross is trading around 214.87, its highest level since February 4.

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the US Dollar (USD) is firmer after President Trump announced a blockade of Iranian ports, with US Dollar Index (DXY) off its Asian highs and still seen within a broader bearish setup.

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that recent New Zealand Dollar (NZD) gains on hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rhetoric look vulnerable. Markets now price nearly three hikes by year-end despite New Zealand’s negative output gap and below-trend growth.

Standard Chartered’s Bader Al Sarraf highlights that the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shut since late February, driving a sharp drop in Gulf crude exports and taking a large volume of production offline.

Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley observes that speculators have been rebuilding long Dollar positions as the US currency acts as the preferred safe haven during the Middle East conflict.

Societe Generale economists highlight that Euro area activity data in Q1 have been somewhat disappointing, especially German industry, but they see limited upside risk to their cautious 0.1% qoq German GDP forecast.

Deutsche Bank economists note the European Central Bank (ECB) kept rates unchanged in March but now expects two 25 bp hikes in June and September, already fully priced by markets. The deposit rate sits at 2.0%, seen as neutral.

ING economists Peter Virovacz and Frantisek Taborsky say Hungary’s new Tisza-led supermajority reduces short-term policy uncertainty and raises expectations for institutional repair, EU relations and fiscal credibility.

United States Existing Home Sales (MoM) below forecasts (4.06M) in March: Actual (3.98M)

United States Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) down to -3.6% in March from previous 1.7%

HSBC's report on G8 currencies argues that Middle East geopolitics and Oil remain the dominant drivers for the Dollar and major FX. The bank highlights a recently strengthened USD–Oil correlation driven by supply shock and safe-haven flows.

NZD/USD moves lower at the start of the week and trades around 0.5830 on Monday at the time of writing, down 0.15% on the day after the failure of negotiations between the United States (US) and Iran over the weekend.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad points to upcoming IMF publications as key for assessing global risks.

Ripple (XRP) is trading sideways around $1.32 at the time of writing on Monday, reflecting a dominant risk-off mood and a technical structure that continues to deteriorate. Retail interest in the remittance token has taken a back seat, with the derivatives market appearing significantly suppressed.

TD Securities strategists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir argue that US macro dynamics and Federal Reserve (Fed) policy expectations will be driven by developments in Iran, recent inflation data and incoming activity indicators.