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AUD: Positive terms of trade offsets geopolitical risk – TD Securities

TD Securities strategists Prashant Newnaha and Alex Loo maintain a constructive stance on the Australian Dollar (AUD) despite the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) close 5-4 vote. A positive terms of trade shock and increased hedging by Australian pension funds underpin AUD outperformance in G10.

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Defying the doom and gloom: How Bitcoin keeps surviving every global crisis

Bitcoin is once again navigating another crisis by defying the broader risk-off sentiment. History shows a clear pattern: every major crisis – from exchange collapses like Mt.

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GBP/JPY holds steady as traders eye BoE and BoJ rate decisions

The British Pound (GBP) trades broadly flat against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Tuesday as a thin economic calendar keeps price action subdued, with attention firmly shifting to the Bank of England (BoE) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decisions due on Thursday.

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USD/CAD: Range holds as fair value diverges – Scotiabank

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is flat against the Dollar (USD) but supported by elevated Oil prices and narrow yield spreads.

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Gold: Debasement trade faces policy headwinds – TD Securities

TD Securities’ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali warns Gold is increasingly exposed as US 2-year yields break their downtrend and the macro backdrop shifts.

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United States Pending Home Sales (YoY) fell from previous -0.4% to -0.8% in February

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United States Pending Home Sales (MoM) above expectations (-0.5%) in February: Actual (1.8%)

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USD: War-driven support and Asia FX risks – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank’s Global Head of FX Research George Saravelos notes that the Iran war has made markets highly correlated to energy, with higher Oil prices and weaker global growth now supporting the Dollar. Asia FX is seen as central to broad Dollar direction and is being hit hardest.

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Euro area: German fiscal push reshapes growth outlook – Societe Generale

Societe Generale economists assess how the reformed German debt brake and approved 2025–2026 budgets will lift German fiscal spending and affect the Euro area.

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JPY: Two way economic risk for Japanese Yen – Rabobank

Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley discusses Japanese Yen (JPY) dynamics around upcoming G10 central bank meetings and potential Bank of Japan policy shifts. Foley notes Governor Ueda’s hawkish tone, ongoing BoJ tightening expectations despite higher energy costs.

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EUR/CHF rises as traders trim CHF longs ahead of ECB, SNB decisions

The Swiss Franc (CHF) weakens against the Euro (EUR), with EUR/CHF edging higher after reversing intraday losses, despite soft Eurozone Economic Sentiment data.

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Ripple Price Forecast: XRP seeks higher support amid retail demand resurgence

Ripple (XRP) is easing from its daily high of $1.61, trading above $1.50 at the time of writing on Tuesday. The remittance token had maintained modest gains for four consecutive days, reflecting a broad increase in crypto prices led by Bitcoin (BTC), which touched $76,000 earlier in the day.

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Emerging markets: Energy shock risks and buffers – BNP Paribas

BNP Paribas argues emerging economies face a renewed stagflationary energy shock, but are not generally more vulnerable than in 2022. The bank highlights limited exchange rate depreciation, existing price-mitigation schemes, and stronger reserves.

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ADP Employment Change 4-week average eases to 9K

Private-sector hiring in the US appears to have lost a bit of momentum toward the end of February. According to the NER Pulse, the weekly companion to the ADP National Employment Report, companies added an average of just 9K jobs per week in the four weeks through February 28.

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EUR/JPY climbs as Yen softens ahead of BoJ, Euro benefits from Oil retreat

EUR/JPY trades around 183.25 on Tuesday at the time of writing, up 0.14% on the day, extending its gains for a second consecutive session.

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Canada: Growth risks from energy shock – Rabobank

Rabobank Strategist Molly Schwartz and Christian Lawrence note that Canadian GDP contracted 0.6% quarter‑over‑quarter in Q4 2025 but still rose 0.7% year‑over‑year, with weakness driven by inventory drawdowns.

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United States Redbook Index (YoY): 6.4% (March 13) vs 6.2%

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US: Diesel prices have surged above $5 – BNY

BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage highlights U.S. diesel prices breaking above $5 per gallon for the first time since 2022, warning of pass‑through to transport and broader inflation and potential political risks into the U.S. midterms.

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Aluminium: Chinese output above cap on price incentives – Commerzbank

Commerzbank's FX & Commodity Analyst Volkmar Baur reports that Chinese Aluminium production has risen nearly 3% year-on-year and is running above the government’s annualized cap, supported by higher Aluminium prices and redirected Alumina flows as the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked.

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United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average fell from previous 15.5K to 9K in February 21

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Gold trades flat as central bank decisions and global inflation risks weigh

Gold (XAU/USD) trades in a tight range on Tuesday as traders remain cautious and avoid large directional bets ahead of a heavy week of monetary policy announcements from major central banks. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades virtually unchanged around $5,008, hovering near one-month lows.

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Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP pause recovery amid strengthening technical levels

The cryptocurrency market has remained relatively robust despite the ongoing war in the Middle East, which has driven Oil prices near $100.

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Gold: Fed caution and strong Dollar cap upside – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Commodity Analyst Carsten Fritsch notes that Gold has fallen about 5% since the Iran war began, struggling to act as a safe haven as a stronger Dollar and repriced Fed expectations weigh.

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Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD trades with caution around $80.50 ahead of Fed’s policy

Silver price (XAG/USD) trades cautiously around $80.50 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The white metal wobbles in a tight range as investors shift focus to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday.

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CAD: Flows strong into BoC decision – BNY

BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage highlights that the Canadian Dollar (CAD) has been among the best-performing G10 currencies over the past two weeks, helped by steady inflows during the Iran conflict.

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AUD/USD recovers as RBA's hawkish tone offsets concerns over split decision

AUD/USD trades around 0.7090 on Tuesday at the time of writing, up 0.25% on the day, rebounding after an initial pullback following the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy decision.

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USD: Peak fear debate on Strait risks – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that the Dollar is trading defensively even as Brent holds above $100 and European gas prices stay elevated.

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AUD: Bittersweet hike with stretched positioning – ING

ING’s Francesco Pesole notes the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivered a split 25 bp hike to 4.10%, initially read as dovish and triggering a sell-the-fact move in AUD/USD before a rebound on Governor Bullock’s comments.

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