MUFG’s Derek Halpenny argues that the ongoing United States (US) blockade in the Strait of Hormuz is building a significant inflation shock for the US and globally, with Oil and input costs surging.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) futures are trading broadly flat in the early afternoon GMT on Friday, holding above 49,100 after a choppy session that saw prices swing between 48,900 and 49,500.
EUR/USD rises on Friday, snapping a three-day losing streak as prospects of renewed US-Iran peace talks lift market sentiment and weigh on the US Dollar (USD). At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.1715, up 0.27% on the day, recovering from two-week lows.
Aave (AAVE) trades around $93.33 as of writing on Friday, as the liquidity crunch within decentralized finance (DeFi) continues to ripple in the sector following Sunday’s exploit on KelpDAO.
GBP/USD advances on Friday as improved risk appetite weighed on the US Dollar’s safety appeal amid growing speculation that a second round of talks between the US and Iran looms. A three-week extension of the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon added to traders’ optimism.
EUR/GBP trades in a tight range on Friday, fluctuating between minor gains and losses as markets show a muted reaction to the latest economic data, with traders remaining focused on geopolitical developments surrounding the US and Iran.
Nomura’s George Buckley and team expect the Bank of England (BoE) to leave Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% next week, with a likely 8-1 vote and Huw Pill as the sole hawk.
AUD/USD is pushing higher toward the 0.7140 area on Friday, as the US Dollar (USD) loses momentum despite ongoing Middle East noise, allowing risk-sensitive currencies to recover.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report that weaker German IFO data, weighed down by Gulf tensions and energy price concerns, has softened the outlook for German growth but had little immediate impact on the Euro.
USD/CAD trades around 1.3685 on Friday, down 0.12% on the day, as the pullback in the US Dollar (USD) dominates price action despite a still fragile geopolitical environment.
DBS Group Research’s Chang Wei Liang says Japan’s March Consumer Price Index (CPI) data show underlying price pressures, with headline and core-core inflation edging higher and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) reportedly set to raise its inflation forecast.
TD Securities strategists expect the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) to embed significantly higher Oil assumptions, with Brent at USD 90 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at USD 85, versus a prior USD 55 WTI baseline.
Commerzbank's Dr. Jörg Krämer and Bernd Weidensteiner expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to leave rates unchanged next week but still project a June hike if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked and inflation risks persist.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note that stronger-than-expected United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales, driven largely by fuel purchases, have supported the Pound (GBP), though broader UK data still point to a softer growth outlook.
According to reports by ABC News, the US Department of Justice (DoJ) is expected to drop its investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday, which could delay the confirmation of Trump’s appointee, Kevin Warsh, to become the next chief of the US central bank.
ING analysts Frantisek Taborsky and Zoltán Homolya expect central bank of the Hungary, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) to keep its base rate unchanged at 6.25% throughout 2026.
TD Securities economists, including Julie Ioffe and colleagues, expect the Bank of England to keep Bank Rate at 3.75% in a unanimous decision, maintaining a wait-and-see stance.
Zcash (ZEC) is grinding up above $355 at the time of writing on Friday, shrugging off emerging headwinds in the broader crypto market. The privacy-oriented token tested support at $300 on Sunday, allowing bulls to increase their risk exposure and build momentum for the current gains.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes USD/JPY is consolidating just below 160.00 after slightly hotter March Consumer Price Index (CPI) that leaves Bank of Japan (BoJ) expectations unchanged for now.
National Bank of Canada (NBC) analysts Ethan Currie and Taylor Schleich expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) to keep its overnight target at 2.25%, extending a fourth consecutive hold.
The latest Reuters surveys highlight a gradual shift toward tighter monetary policy expectations in the Eurozone, with a more pronounced tightening bias than previously anticipated.
Commerzbank's Dr. Jörg Krämer and Bernd Weidensteiner expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% at the upcoming meeting, resisting political pressure for cuts as inflation remains above target and oil-driven price shocks persist.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades flat on Friday, lacking clear direction as upside remains capped by Oil-driven inflation linked to ongoing US-Iran tensions, which have raised expectations of a prolonged higher interest rate environment.