Scotiabank’s FX team notes EUR/USD is drifting toward 1.15 after a Fed‑driven rally, with euro area CPI broadly in line with expectations and French data briefly lifting the Euro. Rate expectations are stabilizing, with about 42 bps of tightening priced by December.

Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economists Abbey Xu and Nathan Janzen note that Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose 0.3% in May, with an advance estimate of 0.2% for June, indicating a solid second-quarter rebound after winter stagnation.

TD Securities economists Eli Nir and Oscar Munoz highlight that Q2 United States (US) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth slowed to 1.5% q/q AR, but underlying private domestic final purchases accelerated to 3.9%.

Commerzbank’s Norman Liebke highlights that China’s July trade data will be key for base metals, especially Aluminium. Chinese Aluminium output in H1 exceeded the official cap, suggesting production may ease later this year.

ING economists Deepali Bhargava and Lynn Song expect the Reserve Bank of India to keep the repo rate at 5.25% this week. They note that while June headline inflation rose on higher fuel prices, core inflation remains below target.

UOB economist Ho Woei Chen highlights that China’s July CFLP PMIs slipped into contraction, with both manufacturing and non-manufacturing gauges signaling broad-based weakness in activity. The report notes particularly soft industrial output and services, while construction also declined.

TD Securities notes the Bank of Japan (BoJ) left its policy rate at 1% with an 8–1 vote, as Governor Ueda delivered notably hawkish remarks. Despite this, the Japanese Yen (JPY) reaction was muted, and the TD forecasts the next 25 bps hike only in December.

Canada’s economy cooled a tad in May. Indeed, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.3%, adding to the previous month's 0.6% expansion (revised from 0.5%), according to data released by Statistics Canada.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights that the Bank of England (BoE) left rates at 3.75% with a 6–3 vote, while Governor Andrew Bailey pushed back against expectations of an imminent hike.

TD Securities strategists highlight that Euro area Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation rose to 2.9% y/y in July, with core inflation at 2.5% and services inflation at 3.3%, indicating only limited evidence of meaningful second-round effects.

Commerzbank’s Norman Liebke and colleagues highlight that Brent remains volatile as Middle East tensions and shipping disruptions through key chokepoints constrain supply.

TD Securities strategists expect Canadian real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to rise by 0.2% m/m in May, exceeding the flash estimate and extending April’s 0.5% gain. They highlight balanced growth across goods and services, with manufacturing, existing home sales and retail trade all contributing.

Rabobank strategists highlight renewed weakness in China, with official PMI data showing both manufacturing and non-manufacturing back in contraction and domestic demand still soft. Policymakers are prioritizing faster implementation of existing measures over new stimulus.

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Martin Kocher said in European trade on Friday that recent weeks have demonstrated how quickly geopolitical developments can alter energy prices and, consequently, the inflation outlook.

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister notes that the Bank of England kept rates unchanged and avoided signalling future hikes, despite a closer-than-expected 6–3 vote and Governor Bailey’s insistence that the BoE is not edging toward tightening.

UOB strategists observe that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept the Fed Funds Target Rate at 3.50%–3.75% for a fifth meeting, with a 9–3 split as three presidents sought a 25 bps hike.

Nomura strategists highlight that Euro area Gross Domestic Product (GDP) excluding Ireland has been growing around potential despite the Iran war.

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur notes that EUR/USD has broken back above 1.15 for the first time since mid-June as Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) outpaced United States (US) growth in annualised terms.

UOB strategists highlight that the Bank of England (BoE) kept its policy rate at 3.75%, with Governor Bailey stressing no move toward a hike despite US-Iran conflict risks.

Deutsche Bank strategists note that strong Microsoft earnings triggered a global technology rebound, lifting the KOSPI, Nasdaq and semiconductor stocks.

Asian stock markets move higher on Friday, tracking overnight gains on Wall Street as a global rally in semiconductor stocks and renewed AI optimism lifted sentiment. Strong earnings from Microsoft and Amazon reinforced expectations for continued hyperscaler investment and resilient AI demand.

Japanese and South Korean officials stepped in to buy their currencies in the open market in what sources described as a rare and an unprecedented coordinated market intervention, possibly alongside the United States (US), Reuters reported on Friday.

Gold prices fell in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

USD/IDR gains ground after two days of losses, trading around 18,120 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair appreciates as the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) struggles following the release of disappointing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data from China, Indonesia’s largest trading partner.

China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49.2 in July, compared to 50.3 in the previous reading, China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported on Friday. The reading came in below the market consensus of 50.0 in the reported month. 

Australia Private Sector Credit (YoY): 8.5% (June) vs 8.2%

China NBS Manufacturing PMI registered at 49.2, below expectations (50) in July

China NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 49 below forecasts (50) in July

Australia Private Sector Credit (MoM) above expectations (0.6%) in June: Actual (0.8%)

Australia Producer Price Index (YoY) up to 3.6% in 2Q from previous 3%