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AUD/NZD gains ground above 1.1750 as RBNZ holds rates, Australian employment report awaited

The AUD/NZD cross rises to near 1.1760 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) edges lower against the Australian Dollar (AUD) after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate decision.

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Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence (QoQ) increased to 3 in 4Q from previous 2

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Australia Westpac Leading Index (MoM) fell from previous 0.08% to -0.1% in January

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Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence (QoQ) down to -0.1 in 4Q from previous 2

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New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision in line with expectations (2.25%)

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Japan Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance climbed from previous ¥-0.21B to ¥0.46B in January

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Australia Wage Price Index (QoQ) meets expectations (0.8%) in 4Q

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Australia Wage Price Index (YoY) remains unchanged at 3.4% in 4Q

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Japan Merchandise Trade Balance Total registered at ¥-1B above expectations (¥-2142.1B) in January

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Japan Exports (YoY) registered at 16.8% above expectations (12%) in January

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Japan Imports (YoY) registered at -2.5%, below expectations (3%) in January

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PHP: BSP seen delivering final cut – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Global Head of Markets Strategy Elias Haddad anticipates the Philippine central bank will cut rates by 25 bps to 4.25%, likely marking the end of its easing cycle after 200 bps of reductions since mid‑2024.

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China: Growth slowdown and export risks – BNP Paribas

BNP Paribas analysts see Chinese GDP growth at 5.0% in 2025, easing moderately in 2026 as domestic demand weakens and property sector stress persists. Authorities are expected to maintain supportive but cautious fiscal and monetary policies, prioritizing private consumption.

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Australia: Housing policy, RBA shift and IMF warning – Rabobank

Rabobank’s Michael Every discusses a material shift in Australia’s macro backdrop. RBA minutes explain a 25 bps rate hike against stronger forecasts, while the IMF warns that the 5% deposit scheme for first-time buyers will fuel housing inflation and should be scrapped.

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New Zealand Producer Price Index - Output (QoQ) came in at 0.1%, below expectations (0.7%) in 4Q

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New Zealand Producer Price Index - Input (QoQ) came in at -0.5%, below expectations (0.5%) in 4Q

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US: Growth cooling back to potential – TD Securities

TD Securities expects US GDP growth to slow to 2.3% q/q annualized in Q4 2025, down from earlier strong quarters, as consumer spending moderates, federal outlays contract and net exports drag.

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Japan: Political shift and fiscal debate shape Yen – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur links Japan’s political landscape to Japanese Yen dynamics. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s landslide victory and two-thirds majority enable expansive but ‘responsible and proactive’ fiscal policy, including a temporary VAT cut on food.

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RBNZ set to hold interest rate as new Governor Breman takes center stage

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) remains on track to maintain the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 2.25% after concluding its first monetary policy meeting of this year on Wednesday.

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New Zealand: Solid jobs and growth backdrop – ING

ING’s Francesco Pesole notes that New Zealand’s labour market and growth backdrop look broadly consistent with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s projections.

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Nigeria: Slower trajectory supports cautious easing – Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered’s Razia Khan notes that Nigeria’s January CPI surprised to the downside, with headline inflation at 15.1% year-on-year after a 2.88% monthly fall. Incorporating rebased data, the bank now forecasts average CPI of 12.0% in 2026, rising to 13.8% in 2027 and 13.3% in 2028.

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Fed: Three cuts still expected by year end – BNY

BNY's Americas Macro Strategist John Velis maintains a call for three Federal Reserve rate cuts by year end, almost one more than current market pricing.

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Fed’s Barr: We should be prepared for "short-term disruptions" in the labor market from AI

Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Michael Barr said that he believes that recent United States (US) data indicates a stabilizing job market.

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United States 52-Week Bill Auction: 3.345% vs previous 3.39%

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CAD: Softer CPI boosts BoC easing flexibility – RBC

Royal Bank of Canada’s (RBC) Nathan Janzen notes that Canadian CPI slowed in January, with headline inflation at 2.3% and ex‑tax measures at 2.1%.

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New Zealand GDT Price Index dipped from previous 6.7% to 3.6%

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NOK: Inflation shock reshapes rate path – Rabobank

Rabobank’s Jane Foley notes that stronger-than-expected Norwegian CPI data has upended the Norges Bank’s easing narrative, pushing markets to price an extended pause instead of further cuts.

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United States NAHB Housing Market Index registered at 36, below expectations (38) in February

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Fed’s Goolsbee: There are potentially several more rate cuts

Federal Reserve (Fed) President of the Bank of Chicago, Austan Goolsbee, said that services inflation is “not tame” and added that there are potentially several more rate cuts in 2026, in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday

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SEK: Strong labour data reduces cut risk – Danske Bank

Danske Research Team highlights a sharp downside surprise in Swedish unemployment, with the seasonally adjusted rate dropping to 8.0% versus 8.8% consensus. December and January figures imply sizeable positive revisions to labour metrics.

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