Commerzbank’s Rates Strategist Hauke Siemßen argues that recent Oil-driven moves in Euro rates have given way to ECB-driven repricing. Comments from Kazimir and Schnabel have led forwards to discount a first 25 bp ECB rate hike by July, even as Commerzbank still forecasts no hikes this year.

ING’s Global Head of Macro Carsten Brzeski argues that the European Central Bank will keep rates unchanged at its 19 March meeting but adopt a more hawkish tone as the war in the Middle East and higher Oil prices revive memories of the 2022 energy shock.

TD Securities’ Prashant Newnaha expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise rates by 25 bps in March and again in May, fully reversing last year’s cuts and taking the cash rate back to 4.35%.

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, March 12:

Danske Research Team reports that ECB officials are turning more hawkish as energy-driven inflation risks and potential fiscal easing in the Euro area build.

Turkey Current Account Balance rose from previous $-7.253B to $-6.807B in January

BNY Strategist Geoff Yu says the Swiss National Bank is prepared to intervene in FX markets as safe-haven flows lift the Swiss Franc, but stresses that real effective exchange rate dynamics give the SNB room to tolerate nominal strength.

Standard Chartered strategist Nicholas Chia now expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise the cash rate to 4.10% at the 17 March meeting, reversing a prior call for a hold. The bank still anticipates another hike in Q2, lifting its terminal rate forecast to 4.35%.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Thursday that the central bankn “will conduct appropriate monetary policy while assessing how forex affect the likelihood of our forecasts.”

Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations: 5.2% (March) vs 5%

United Kingdom RICS Housing Price Balance came in at -12% below forecasts (-9%) in February

Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions Index (QoQ) came in at 3.8, below expectations (5.5) in 1Q

Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks down to ¥385.5B in March 6 from previous ¥973.9B

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $92.65 during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday. The WTI price climbs over 6.5% on the day as fresh attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz worsen supply disruption fears. 

RaboResearch highlights that US rare earths inventories may cover only about two months after depletion from the Iran conflict, potentially giving China significant leverage.

New Zealand Manufacturing Sales declined to -0.5% in 4Q from previous 1.1%

Commerzbank’s Moses Lim notes that higher Oil prices and heavy reliance on Middle Eastern crude have kept KRW volatile, with USD/KRW trading between 1,420 and 1,500 and the won down year-to-date.

ABN AMRO analysts argue China is exposed to Iran-related Oil and LNG disruptions but cushioned by large reserves, diversified imports and rising renewables.

Tatha Ghose at Commerzbank highlights rising political uncertainty in Poland, including potential vetoes of defence-related EU funding legislation and a hard-right opposition candidate for 2027.

ABN AMRO economists see the Dutch economy broadly mirroring Eurozone dynamics under Iran conflict scenarios, with transmission mainly via higher inflation rather than deep growth damage.

United States 10-Year Note Auction increased to 4.217% from previous 4.177%

Standard Chartered’s Bader Al Sarraf now expects the Central Bank of Egypt to keep policy rates at 19% through FY26, postponing earlier plans for near-term easing. The bank still forecasts a 13% policy rate by end-2026, assuming conditions stabilise.

Isabel Schanbel, member of the executive board of the European Central Bank (ECB), said that they must monitor the persistence of the energy price shock in Europe and stay vigilant for upside inflation risks in a speech at the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management Centre for Central Banking in

French President Emannuel Macron said that they will engage with several countries to limit measures to restrict exports, adding that there's obviously a need for a definition of military and political objectives in the war in Iran at a G7 leaders' video conference on Wednesday.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose says Hungarian inflation has fallen back within target on core measures, validating the MNB’s earlier rate cut and dovish pivot.

ING strategists Michiel Tukker and Benjamin Schroeder say Euro rates remain highly sensitive to energy dynamics, with European Central Bank hikes still priced for 2026.

RBC Economics notes Canada’s Oil and gas sector is smaller than a decade ago but still important for GDP and exports. Higher Oil prices lift corporate profits and royalties but squeeze household purchasing power.

OCBC strategists Christopher Wong and Sim Moh Siong note the Australian Dollar outperformed as global risk sentiment improved and the Reserve Bank of Australia turned more hawkish. OIS pricing now assigns a higher probability to a March rate hike, though OCBC still expects the next move in May.

TD Securities’ Oscar Munoz and colleagues note that February US CPI matched expectations, with core inflation easing and supercore moderating after January’s tariff-driven spike.

United States (US) President Donald Trump said that the war with Iran will end soon because there is practically nothing left to target in a brief phone call with Axion on Wednesday.