TD Securities economists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir expect US output growth to move sideways in 2025 as the lingering Oil shock and Iran conflict create stagflationary risks, keeping the Fed on hold.

Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley highlights that the Norwegian Krone (NOK) is the strongest G10 currency across multiple horizons, supported by Oil prices, above-target inflation and a hawkish Norges Bank.

BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that India’s bonds sold off after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) unexpectedly advanced closure of its special Dollar deposit window to end-August.

Societe Generale economists Reo Sakida and Jin Kenzaki say Japan’s 2Q GDP data were weaker than expected, with consumption and capex both disappointing.

A large majority of economists expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates unchanged in September and for the rest of this year, according to a Reuters poll conducted between August 12 and 17.

Philip Wee of DBS Group Research notes that markets still focus on Japan’s struggle to support the Japanese Yen, while underplaying broader USD implications.

Commerzbank’s Dr. Henry Hao highlights that China’s July activity data undershot expectations across industrial output, retail sales and fixed-asset investment, reflecting weather disruptions and a deepening property slump.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects the Riksbank to keep its policy rate at 1.75% for a seventh consecutive meeting while leaving the door open to a later hike as inflation runs above projections.

TD Securities’ James Rossiter argues that the Federal Reserve is leading a structural shift away from detailed forward guidance and explicit reaction functions, forcing markets to infer policy from incoming data.

Chris Turner at ING notes that a busier United Kingdom (UK) data calendar, including jobs, wages and July Consumer Price Index (CPI), could challenge the 55bp of Bank of England (BoE) tightening still priced in.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects Canada’s July Consumer Price Index (CPI) to keep core inflation below 2%, reinforcing an extended Bank of Canada (BoC) pause.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose reports that Polish headline and core inflation have re-accelerated, with seasonally adjusted monthly rates now clearly above target. This makes earlier signals from National Bank of Poland (NBP) Governor Adam Glapinski about possible rate cuts obsolete.

AUD/JPY extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around 113.20 during the European hours on Monday.

ING analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note that ICE Brent is trading just below $90/bbl, supported by Middle East tensions and attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

Turkey Budget Balance down to -378.1B in July from previous 114.2B

Canada’s July Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures will be the focus of attention when published on Monday.

TD Securities’ Robert Both and Emma Lawrence highlight that markets are watching Canadian CPI and potential US Section 338 tariffs on CAD exports. They expect headline CPI at 2.9% year-on-year in July with core at 1.85%, and see retail sales flat in June.

China’s Retail Sales rose 0.6% year-over-year (YoY) in July vs. A rise of 1.5% expected and a 1.0% growth in June, the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed Monday.

Deutsche Bank strategists highlight a mixed global equity picture, with the Nikkei, CSI 300, Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng all advancing, while US equity futures, led by NASDAQ, also point higher.

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur says solid nominal growth and higher-than-expected inflation should keep pressure on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise rates again as early as September or October.

The GBP/USD pair gains traction to near 1.3555 during the early European trading hours on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the British Pound (GBP) as bets for a US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike come down.

USD/IDR extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around 17,820 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair may face thin trading conditions as trading volumes remain subdued amid Indonesia’s Independence Day holiday.

USD/JPY loses ground for the second successive day, trading around 159.10 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair depreciates as the Japanese Yen JPY) remains stronger following the release of Japan’s preliminary Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data.

The Japanese economy expanded 0.3% over the quarter in the second quarter (Q2) of 2026, the preliminary report published by the Cabinet Office showed on Monday. This reading followed a 0.5% growth recorded in Q1 and missed market expectations of a 0.5% expansion.

United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) declined to -1% in August from previous -0.4%

United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) increased to 1% in August from previous -0.4%

New Zealand Business NZ PSI remains unchanged at 50.6 in July

Israel has resumed airstrikes against Lebanon in the past few days after scaling back its attacks in the enclave earlier this month, Reuters reported on Sunday.

US Treasury yields advanced on Friday during the North American session after reversing their course following the release of US Retail Sales data, which disappointed investors. Meanwhile, the lack of news from the Middle East kept Oill prices higher, amid fears of a resumption of hostilities.

Societe Generale analysts highlight CNY’s firm trend, with the currency advancing to 6.7424, its strongest level since February 2023, on Dollar weakness and lower US yields.