Russia Industrial Output above expectations (0.1%) in June: Actual (0.6%)

Standard Chartered economists Carol Liao and Shuang Ding argue that China’s July Politburo meeting will prioritise implementation of existing fiscal plans over new stimulus. They expect fiscal execution to accelerate in H2 after a marked slowdown following front-loaded Q1 spending.

ING analysts discuss changes to US Section 232 aluminium tariffs aimed at incentivizing domestic smelting investment. Qualifying projects can import at 25% instead of 50%, but ING stresses this is a long-term industrial policy with limited near-term impact.

Rabobank’s FX Strategy team reviews Bank of Japan policy, noting that the slow rate-hike pace reflects exceptional shocks such as tariffs, war and domestic political changes.

Nomura strategists analyse the latest United Kingdom (UK) June inflation data, noting headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 2.6% as the Bank of England expected, but core and services inflation stayed sticky.

ING strategist Frantisek Taborsky reports the National Bank of Hungary (MNB) cut rates to 5.75% and confirmed dovish guidance, signaling further easing in August and possibly beyond. Markets have accepted renewed rate-cut pricing, and ING expects more dovish repricing.

Societe Generale economist Sam Cartwright analyzes June United Kingdom (UK) inflation, noting headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 2.6% year-on-year, below Bank of England (BoE) projections, with core inflation steady at 2.6%.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad notes the British Pound (GBP) remains heavy versus the US Dollar (USD) and Euro (EUR) after a mixed United Kingdom (UK) June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, with headline inflation cooling but core and services measures still sticky.

South Africa Retail Sales (YoY) increased to 2.3% in May from previous 1.3%

United States MBA Mortgage Applications increased to 1.9% in July 17 from previous -2.7%

The World Bank warned that the global economy is only "a few months" away from a worst-case scenario in which global growth slows to 1.3% while inflation rises to 4.5%, according to comments by Chief Economist Indermit Gill reported by Reuters.

Following his meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Manila on Wednesday, United States (US) Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that “Iran is in a lot of trouble.”

The British Pound (GBP) is facing renewed downward pressure across major currency pairs, forfeiting its recent gains as market participants digest a combination of cooling domestic inflation and growing fiscal uncertainty surrounding Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s economic agenda. 

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose reports that Hungary’s central bank Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) cut its base rate to 5.75%, in line with expectations, and maintained its summer easing narrative.

United Kingdom DCLG House Price Index (YoY) declined to 2.7% in May from previous 3.8%

Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke highlights recent confusion in Norway after delayed core inflation data and an unexpected slowdown in both headline and core rates.

South Africa Consumer Price Index (MoM) remains at 0.7% in June

South Africa Consumer Price Index (YoY): 5% (June) vs 4.5%

Societe Generale strategists analyze the Hungarian Forint (HUF) after the central bank of Hungary, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) cut its policy rate to 5.75% and signalled more easing. They expect a 5.0% terminal rate by year-end, noting EUR/HUF already bottomed near 348.59.

USD/IDR has recovered its daily losses, trading around 17,950 during the European hours on Wednesday. The pair appreciates as the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) struggles after the Bank Indonesia (BI) decided to hold its benchmark rate steady at 5.75% in July.

According to a Bloomberg report, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is widely seen holding interest rates steady at the July meeting.

Indonesia Bank Indonesia Rate below forecasts (6%): Actual (5.75%)

Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen notes that recent optimism around United Kingdom (UK) Prime Minister Burnham faded quickly, with British Pound (GBP) gains versus Euro fully reversed.

Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid notes that despite higher United States (US) Treasury yields and renewed speculation about a July Fed rate hike, US equities advanced, led by a strong recovery in chip stocks.

United Kingdom Retail Price Index (MoM) climbed from previous 0.2% to 0.3% in June

United Kingdom Retail Price Index (YoY) in line with forecasts (3%) in June

United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) n.s.a below expectations (0.4%) in June: Actual (0%)

United Kingdom Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.6%, above forecasts (2.5%) in June

United Kingdom Consumer Price Index (MoM) in line with expectations (0.1%) in June

United Kingdom Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.6% below forecasts (2.7%) in June