DBS strategist Philip Wee argues that downside risk in EUR/JPY is less straightforward than in CHF/JPY.

Danske Research notes that a strong US labour market report increased expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve, pressuring global equities. The S&P 500 declined while the Stoxx 600 posted a small gain, with cyclicals outperforming and rate-sensitive sectors underperforming.

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky highlights a busy CEE data and policy calendar, with Hungary’s inflation seen edging up, the National Bank of Poland and Central Bank of Turkey expected on hold, and Romania’s inflation falling sharply on base effects.

Germany’s Industrial Production declined 1.1% Month-on-Month (MoM) in July, the latest data published by Destatis showed on Monday. This figure came in below the market consensus of a 0.3% growth and slower than the previous reading of 0% (revised from 0.2%). 

Asian stocks were mixed with a positive bias on Monday, driven by optimism that a new OpenAI model will spur demand for memory chips. This momentum followed Friday's rally among US semiconductor and memory stocks as broader sentiment toward the sector improved.

Japan Leading Economic Index came in at 117.9 below forecasts (118.1) in July

Japan Coincident Index increased to 120.6 in July from previous 118.5

Singapore Retail Sales (MoM): 0.9% (July) vs previous 1%

Singapore Retail Sales (YoY) dipped from previous 4% to 1.5% in July

USD/IDR extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around 17,700 during the Asian hours on Monday.

Australia ANZ Job Advertisements rose from previous 0.8% to 2.5% in August

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gains ground after registering losses in the previous trading day, hovering around $90.00 per barrel during Asian hours on Monday.

China's Finance Ministry will inject billions into its largest banks and insurers, as Beijing moves to shore up balance sheets and sustain growth in a slowing economy, Bloomberg reported on Sunday.

OCBC’s Christopher Wong notes that Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) kept the OPR at 2.75% and struck a slightly firmer tone, with growth expected to stay resilient into 2027. The economist still projects an OPR normalisation to 3.00% in January 2027.

Commerzbank highlights that Bank Negara Malaysia kept the OPR at 2.75% but shifted to a more hawkish bias, removing language that policy is "appropriate" and signalling vigilance on cost pressures.

OCBC’s Christopher Wong notes that USD/IDR has pulled back as a softer Dollar and lower UST yields support the Indonesian Rupiah. He highlights Bank Indonesia Governor Destry Damayanti’s emphasis on a stability-first approach, prioritizing Rupiah and macro stability while still supporting growth.

Commerzbank says China’s August Services PMI rebound highlights some resilience in private-sector activity, but weak retail sales, soft inflation and higher unemployment still point to fragile domestic demand.

Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions down to ¥-92.2K from previous ¥-63.3K

Eurozone CFTC EUR NC Net Positions increased to €-24.9K from previous €-36.4K

United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: $-75.9K vs previous $-68K

DBS Group Research economist Chua Han Teng notes that Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) held the Overnight Policy Rate at 2.75% while dropping language that the current level is appropriate. DBS expects rates to remain unchanged through 2026 but sees risks tilted towards a one-off policy normalisation.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack wrote that the current monetary policy stance in the Fed is not restrictive, emphasizing that inflation is too high, at an article on LinkedIn. She added that local contact views indicate that “now is the time for the Fed to hike to control inflation.”

ING’s Muhammet Mercan notes the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) has normalised liquidity via weekly repo auctions, bringing effective funding costs down to the 37% policy rate.

Commerzbank’s Commodity Research team, led by Barbara Lambrecht, notes that uncertainty over crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz and conflicting transit data are clouding the outlook for Brent.

Rabobank's Senior Macro Strategist Bas van Geffen expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to hike its deposit rate by 25bp to 2.50% next week and then hold at that level for an extended period.

ING’s Peter Virovacz expects Hungarian industrial production to rebound in July, helping avoid a third-quarter GDP decline despite August headwinds from heatwave-related energy issues.

Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economist Claire Fan notes Canada’s labour market lost 42,000 jobs in August, partly reversing earlier gains and leaving modest year-to-date job growth. She emphasizes structural factors like demographics and weaker immigration as key drags.

Commerzbank’s Dr. Christoph Balz notes that the U.S. labor market surprised to the upside in August, with Nonfarm Payrolls and private sector jobs both rising strongly while the unemployment rate held at 4.1%. Wage growth continued to slow.

Nomura’s Global Markets Research team, led by Andrzej Szczepaniak, George Buckley and Josie Anderson, expects the ECB to raise the depo rate by 25bp to 2.50% at the 10 September meeting and then pause.

In a post on Truth Social, United States (US) President Donald Trump welcomed the creation of 162K jobs in August, a figure he described as significantly above expectations.