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GBP: BoE holds as energy shock clouds outlook – Nomura

Nomura’s George Buckley and team expect the Bank of England (BoE) to leave Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% next week, with a likely 8-1 vote and Huw Pill as the sole hawk.

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WTI: Higher path feeding BoC inflation forecasts – TD Securities

TD Securities strategists expect the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) to embed significantly higher Oil assumptions, with Brent at USD 90 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at USD 85, versus a prior USD 55 WTI baseline.

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ECB: Expected to hike in June as inflation risks build – Commerzbank

Commerzbank's Dr. Jörg Krämer and Bernd Weidensteiner expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to leave rates unchanged next week but still project a June hike if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked and inflation risks persist.

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Powell probe may be dropped by the US DoJ – ABC News

According to reports by ABC News, the US Department of Justice (DoJ) is expected to drop its investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday, which could delay the confirmation of Trump’s appointee, Kevin Warsh, to become the next chief of the US central bank.

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EUR/HUF: MNB holds rates as geopolitical risks persist – ING

ING analysts Frantisek Taborsky and Zoltán Homolya expect central bank of the Hungary, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) to keep its base rate unchanged at 6.25% throughout 2026.

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BoE: Hold stance and resilient UK data – TD Securities

TD Securities economists, including Julie Ioffe and colleagues, expect the Bank of England to keep Bank Rate at 3.75% in a unanimous decision, maintaining a wait-and-see stance.

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United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations came in at 4.7%, below expectations (4.8%) in April

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United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index above expectations (46.1) in April: Actual (48.1)

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United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation registered at 3.5% above expectations (3.4%) in April

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United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index registered at 49.8 above expectations (47.6) in April

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BoC: Policy hold as inflation assessed – NBC

National Bank of Canada (NBC) analysts Ethan Currie and Taylor Schleich expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) to keep its overnight target at 2.25%, extending a fourth consecutive hold.

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Reuters poll: Economists see ECB on hold in April, June hike odds rise

The latest Reuters surveys highlight a gradual shift toward tighter monetary policy expectations in the Eurozone, with a more pronounced tightening bias than previously anticipated.

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Fed: Patience before gradual cuts as inflation elevated – Commerzbank

Commerzbank's Dr. Jörg Krämer and Bernd Weidensteiner expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% at the upcoming meeting, resisting political pressure for cuts as inflation remains above target and oil-driven price shocks persist.

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NOK: Re‑rating seen largely complete after strong run – BNY

BNY’s Bob Savage highlights that earlier supportive flows into the Norwegian Krone from energy prices and hawkish Norges Bank policy are now fading. Commodity FX momentum is softening, with NOK seeing outflows as hedge demand unwinds and policy expectations peak.

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US Defense Secretary Hegseth: Attempts to lay more mines is violation of ceasefire

United States Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Friday that any attempts to lay more mines by Iran would be considered a violation of the ceasefire, per Reuters.

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Canada Retail Sales (MoM) below expectations (0.9%) in February: Actual (0.7%)

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Canada Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) below expectations (0.8%) in February: Actual (0.5%)

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ECB: Rate hike call pushed to June – Rabobank

Rabobank’s Senior Macro Strategist Bas van Geffen argues that muted market reactions have reduced urgency for central banks to act, even as Middle East conflict risks persist.

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Mexico Jobless Rate s.a climbed from previous 2.7% to 2.8% in March

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Mexico Jobless Rate came in at 2.4%, below expectations (2.5%) in March

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Iran’s Araghchi to reach Pakistan on Friday

According to Reuters, Iran's foreign minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi will reach Islamabad on Friday.

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Fed: Outlook steady as war risks build – Rabobank

Rabobank Senior US Strategist Philip Marey Global Economics & Markets discusses the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to keep policy unchanged and Chair Powell may face questions about the economic impact of the war with Iran.

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DXY: Range holds as energy shock eases – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that the US-Iran standoff in the Strait of Hormuz is keeping Brent elevated and supporting a firm Dollar, but sees the worst of the energy shock as past.

CAD: Retail data eyed for consumption rebound – TD Securities

TD Securities analysts expect Canadian Retail Sales to rise 0.7% month-on-month in February versus the market’s 0.9% consensus. They see stronger auto sales and higher gasoline prices underpinning the headline and ex-autos measures.

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ECB’s Kazimir: A slight ECB rate increase might be necessary

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and Governor of the National Bank of Slovakia (NBS) Peter Kazimir highlights the need for a slight interest rate increase during European trading hours on Friday. Kazimir warned that the Iran war could still significantly slow global growth.

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ECB: Hawkish hold and June options – Nordea

Nordea’s Chief Analyst Jan von Gerich expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to leave policy rates unchanged at the April meeting while keeping all options open for June. He anticipates a hawkish communication tone that underpins market expectations for a June hike.

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China FDI - Foreign Direct Investment (YTD) (YoY) declined to -7.3% in March from previous -5.7%

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Iran warns US an eye for an eye over oil strikes

Iran’s deputy president Esmaeil Saqab Esfahani has warned the United States (US) of “an eye for an eye” over oil strikes, according to the Mehr news agency, The Guardian reported. Esfahani threatened to attack the oil facilities of the countries from whose soil Iranian oil wells will be targeted.

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AUD/USD: Range trading persists near 0.7130 – UOB

United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann expect AUD/USD to remain in a consolidation phase after a brief dip to 0.7111 and close around 0.7130.

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SNB’s Schlegel: Central bank is open to adjust monetary policy and made interventions

Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Martin Schlegel said at the SNB's General Meeting during the European trading hours on Friday that the central bank has unrestricted room to maneuver on policy rate and made forex interventions.

출처  Fxstreet1777019721
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