Commerzbank economists Dr. Henry Hao and Moses Lim note USD/PHP rose to 60.10 after President Marcos declared a national state of emergency to tackle surging energy prices.

Alan Taylor, an external member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England (BoE), said that he currently sees a high bar to hiking the rates at a conference in New York hosted by Exante Data. He also added that the current energy shock looks more like the 2011 situation than the 2022.

Standard Chartered Bank analysts Bader Al Sarraf and Razia Khan assess how the Middle East escalation and potential Strait of Hormuz disruptions could affect Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies.

United States 7-Year Note Auction increased to 4.255% from previous 3.79%

ING’s Francesco Pesole notes that Norges Bank delivered a hawkish shift, signalling upcoming rate hikes as inflation concerns extend beyond the energy shock. The bank now fully prices at least one hike in its projections, while ING expects only one move given its bearish Oil and gas baseline.

United States 4-Week Bill Auction climbed from previous 3.615% to 3.62%

United States Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity: 11 (March) vs 10

United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change below forecasts (-49B) in March 20: Actual (-54B)

ING strategists Michiel Tukker and Benjamin Schroeder note that markets continue to price two to three European Central Bank (ECB) rate hikes in 2026, with April odds still elevated. They stress that the ECB must balance data dependence with managing expectations along the curve.

South Africa SARB Interest Rate Decision meets expectations (6.75%)

Russia Central Bank Reserves $ dipped from previous $803.2B to $776.8B

Nordea's Chief economist Kjetil Olsen and Senior Macro and FX Strategist Sara Midtgaard note that the central bank of Norway, Norges Bank now signals a policy rate hike to 4.25% at an upcoming meeting, with the new path pointing to 4.25–4.50% by year-end.

According to a report from the US Department of Labour (DOL) released on Thursday, the number of US citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance increased to 210K for the week ending March 21.

United States Continuing Jobless Claims below forecasts (1.86M) in March 13: Actual (1.819M)

United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 210.5K (March 20) vs previous 210.75K

United States Initial Jobless Claims in line with forecasts (210K) in March 20

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that the Pound (GBP) has been resilient since the Iran conflict, supported by a sharp hawkish shift in UK rate expectations.

Societe Generale analysts comment on the latest Reuters European Central Bank (ECB) poll showing more economists now expect at least one rate increase this year, though a majority still see no move.

55 of 82 economists polled by Reuters think that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep the policy rate unchanged at the 3.5%-3.75% range at least until September.

TD Securities reports that Norges Bank left its policy rate unchanged at 4.00%, in line with expectations, but shifted guidance toward a base case of at least one rate hike in 2026.

In a post published on Truth Social on Thursday, United States (US) President Donald Trump called Iranian negotiators "very different and strange."

Bank of England (BoE) Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden stated at a panel discussion during European trading hours on Thursday that the monetary policy should remain steady until the United Kingdom (UK) central bank has sufficient information.

Danske Research Team notes that Riksbank Minutes show a divided board on handling supply shocks, with Seim and Thedéen favouring frontloaded rate hikes, while Jansson, Bunge and Hjelm prefer a gradual, wait-and-see stance.

South Africa Producer Price Index (MoM) climbed from previous -0.2% to 0% in February

South Africa Producer Price Index (YoY): 1.8% (February) vs previous 2.2%

Commerzbank analyst Volkmar Baur expects the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) to keep rates unchanged, despite inflation having fallen to its new 3% target and real rates remaining restrictive.

Italy Business Confidence rose from previous 88.5 to 88.8 in March

Italy Consumer Confidence down to 92.6 in March from previous 97.4

Eurozone Private Loans (YoY) came in at 3%, below expectations (3.1%) in February

ABN AMRO’s Senior US Economist Rogier Quaedvlieg argues that US growth has slowed sharply outside AI-related activity, with near-zero job creation and downgraded GDP.