Societe Generale economists describe China’s June trade surplus of $125.62bn, driven by 27% yoy export growth and 36% import growth, with AI-related high-tech shipments up over 50%.

Bart Melek at TD Securities argues that money managers are heavily short crude based on what he views as misread market conditions, including pessimism on China demand and expectations of an oil glut.

Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economist Claire Fan expects Canada’s economy to rebound in Q2 2026, supported by resilient household spending, recovering business investment and expanding net trade.

Societe Generale notes Bank Indonesia’s (BI) reaction function is driven by the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) and exchange rate stability. The report says the Rupiah faces pressure from a stronger US Dollar (USD) and hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) pricing, with stress around USD/IDR 18,000.

ING economists Peter Virovacz and Frantisek Taborsky turn more optimistic on Hungary’s growth outlook, noting positive surprises in high-frequency data and stronger consumption. They still project 1.5% GDP growth in 2026 but now see clear upside risks.

United States Redbook Index (YoY) declined to 8.2% in July 10 from previous 11.5%

According to the prepared remarks that Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Kevin Warsh will deliver during his testimony on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the US House Financial Services Committee, he will note that the Fed has no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation.

United States Consumer Price Index Core s.a declined to 336.07 in June from previous 336.121

United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) registered at 0%, below expectations (0.2%) in June

United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) below expectations (2.8%) in June: Actual (2.6%)

United States Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) registered at 333.95, below expectations (334.7) in June

United States Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at -0.4% below forecasts (-0.1%) in June

United States Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 3.5%, below expectations (3.8%) in June

United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average fell from previous 21K to 19.75K in June 20

The US Dollar (USD) holds its early corrective move in Tuesday’s European session ahead of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.

Rabobank strategists Joe DeLaura and Florence Schmit keep their Brent Oil forecasts broadly unchanged, projecting $80/bbl in Q3 2026 and $78/bbl in Q4 2026.

Commerzbank’s Christoph Rieger argues that US CPI and Fed Chair Warsh’s testimony will shape Fed expectations over summer, with markets currently pricing roughly a 50/50 chance of a July hike and more than 25bp by September.

United States NFIB Business Optimism Index came in at 97.4, above forecasts (95.8) in June

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note the US Dollar (USD) has strengthened broadly on higher Oil prices, hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) rhetoric and softer risk sentiment.

BNY Markets strategists John Velis and David Tam discuss new Federal Reserve (Fed) task forces and focus on the Communications group led by Mervyn King, Arminio Fraga and Peter Fisher.

Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey said on Tuesday that the “resumption of hostilities in the Gulf underlines instability going forward.”

ING strategists Francesco Pesole, Frantisek Taborsky and Chris Turner note that higher Crude and Gulf tensions are not yet fully priced, leaving short-term upside risks for the US Dollar (USD).

EUR/CAD extends its losing streak for the third consecutive day, trading around 1.6070 during the European hours on Tuesday. The currency cross depreciates as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) gains ground on higher oil prices.

Spain 9-Month Letras Auction rose from previous 2.518% to 2.623%

Spain 3-Month Letras Auction rose from previous 2.239% to 2.366%

Societe Generale technical analysts note that EUR/CHF has moved above its 200-DMA and is challenging resistance defined by the March and April highs.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price continues to gain ground, trading around $80.20 per barrel during the European hours on Tuesday. Crude oil prices rise due to rising supply concerns, which could be attributed to the escalating United States (US)-Iran tensions.

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, July 14:

DBS Group Research economist Chang Wei Liang analyses long-term Japanese Yen valuation using DBS’s DEER framework, highlighting that JPY remains significantly undervalued near historically weak levels.

India WPI Inflation increased to 9.87% in June from previous 9.68%