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India: New GDP series challenges growth narrative – Societe Generale

Societe Generale’s Kunal Kundu argues that India’s new GDP series points to weaker historical growth and softer domestic demand than previously reported.

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Euro area: Resilient NPL ratios face 2026 energy shock – BNP Paribas

BNP Paribas argues that European Union (EU) manufacturing firms enter the 2026 energy shock from Iran with historically low non-performing loan (NPL) ratios, suggesting stronger financial health than in 2022.

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Australia: Energy costs keep CPI elevated – UOB

UOB economist Lee Sue Ann highlights that Australian inflation remains elevated, with housing and electricity key drivers, even as trimmed mean CPI tracks slightly below earlier RBA projections.

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United States 5-Year Note Auction increased to 3.98% from previous 3.615%

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Russia Industrial Output registered at -0.9%, below expectations (1.1%) in February

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Denmark: Government formation faces prolonged negotiations – Nordea

Nordea’s Group Chief Economist Helge J. Pedersen notes that the Danish parliamentary election has produced a highly fragmented Folketing, with 12 parties entering parliament and no majority for either the red or blue bloc. The Moderates, led by Lars Løkke Rasmussen, now hold the balance of power.

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GBP: BoE hawkish shift supports Pound – UOB

UOB economist Lee Sue Ann highlights a hawkish pivot by the Bank of England (BoE), with the Bank Rate held at 3.75% and a unanimous 9–0 vote. The report removes prior expectations for three 2026 cuts, now forecasting the GBP Repo Rate steady at 3.75% through 4Q26 as inflation risks dominate.

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ECB: Inflation risks point to further hikes – ABN AMRO

ABN AMRO economists Bill Diviney and Jan-Paul van de Kerke note that the ECB is likely to respond to the renewed energy shock with additional tightening focused on preventing second-round effects.

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Germany: Rebound risks grow on Ifo slump – ING

ING’s Carsten Brzeski warns that Germany’s long-awaited cyclical rebound has been dented after the Ifo index fell sharply in March, with expectations suffering their worst hit since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

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NOK: Norges Bank seen on hold at 4.00% – TD Securities

TD Securities expects Norges Bank to keep its policy rate unchanged at 4.00%, noting stubbornly sticky inflation and risks of re-acceleration after the Middle East crisis and energy price shock.

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ECB: Hawkish shift with energy-driven inflation – ABN AMRO

ABN AMRO economists revise their Eurozone outlook after the Iran-related energy shock, expecting weaker growth but notably higher inflation. They now see the European Central Bank (ECB) hiking twice in Q2, front‑loading tightening to prevent second‑round effects.

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UK: Energy scenarios shape BoE outlook – ING

ING’s James Smith outlines scenarios for UK inflation, with current energy prices implying a brief 4% peak in autumn and ING’s base case of easing disruption pointing to a 3.5% peak in September.

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Germany: War risks darken Ifo outlook – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Chief Economist Dr. Jörg Krämer warns that the sharp March drop in the German Ifo Business Climate Index reflects rising war-related risks rather than current damage.

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BoE's Greene: There is a risk inflation expectations will rise

Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene said on Wednesday that if their inflation forecasts are right, there is a risk inflation expectations will rise, per Reuters.

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Canada Employment Insurance Beneficiaries Change (MoM) declined to -1.9% in January from previous 0.4%

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United States Import Price Index (YoY) increased to 1.3% in February from previous -0.1%

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United States Export Price Index (YoY): 3.5% (February) vs 2.6%

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United States Current Account above expectations ($-211B) in 4Q: Actual ($-190.7B)

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United States Export Price Index (MoM) registered at 1.5% above expectations (0.5%) in February

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United States Import Price Index (MoM) above expectations (0.5%) in February: Actual (1.3%)

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BoC: Dovish stance versus market pricing – TD Securities

TD Securities strategist Andrew Kelvin notes that the Bank of Canada (BoC) is stressing downside risks to growth and appears willing to look through an energy-driven inflation shock.

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ECB: Divergent energy shock response scenarios – Nomura

Nomura analysts note that markets currently price around three rate hikes for the European Central Bank (ECB) by December 2026, implying a similar response to the Iran war energy shock as the Bank of England (BoE).

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Germany: Recovery prospects delayed – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank economist Marc Schattenberg notes that the ifo Business Climate Index deteriorated in March as German businesses turned more pessimistic on expectations, while their assessment of current conditions was unchanged.

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India M3 Money Supply dipped from previous 11.5% to 10.7% in March 2

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United States MBA Mortgage Applications climbed from previous -10.9% to -10.5% in March 20

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Pakistan delivered US proposal to Tehran – Reuters

Citing a source, who asked not to be named, Reuters reported on Wednesday that Pakistan has delivered the United States' proposal to Iran.

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ECB: Wait-and-see for second-round effects from energy shock – TD Securities

TD Securities notes that President Lagarde used the ECB and Its Watchers conference to outline how the Governing Council is assessing the Middle East conflict shock. The bank says the ECB is effectively playing for time, watching selling price expectations and wage trackers.

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BoE: War-driven inflation outlook reshapes rate path – Nomura

Nomura’s Global Markets Research team notes UK CPI inflation held at 3.0% year-on-year in February, matching Bank of England (BoE) forecasts. Services inflation stayed sticky, but core measures eased slightly.

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Euro Area: PMIs soften as inflation pressures rise – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank analysts report that Euro Area activity is slowing, with the composite PMI dropping to a 10‑month low while still just above the 50 expansion threshold. They emphasize that survey details point to rising input prices, suggesting renewed inflation pressures.

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ECB’s Lane: Inflation readings could be higher in March and April

European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Philip Lane warned of higher inflationary pressures in the Eurozone in the next two months during European trading hours at the ECB and its Watchers conference at Goethe University in Frankfurt on Wednesday.

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