United States Redbook Index (YoY): 9% (May 22) vs 8.1%

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky reports that the National Bank of Hungary held its base rate at 6.25% but signalled a dovish shift, with June cuts fully priced and markets now seeing a terminal rate near 5.25%.

Iran's State TV reported that it has a draft of the initial unofficial framework of the Memorandum of Understanding with the United States (US).

Private-sector hiring in the US has cooled in early May. According to the NER Pulse, the weekly companion to the ADP National Employment Report, companies added an average of 35.75K jobs per week in the four weeks ending May 9.

United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 35.75K (May 2) vs previous 42.25K

Societe Generale’s commodity team notes Brent has lost its 50-day moving average and is testing support around $96.

BNY’s Bob Savage highlights that global equities extend gains on AI optimism and Iran peace talks.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes AUD/USD slid toward 0.7136 and is expected to settle closer to 0.7000, consistent with Australia–US 2‑year yield spreads.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose reports that Hungary’s MNB kept rates at 6.25%, citing Iran-related inflation risks but acknowledging room to cut after a strong Forint rally.

TD Securities reports that the RBNZ kept the OCR at 2.25% in a split decision, with Governor Breman’s casting vote preserving the hold.

United States MBA Mortgage Applications fell from previous -2.3% to -8.5% in May 22

Danske Research Team notes that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its policy rate at 2.25%, matching expectations, but signalled a need for faster tightening. They now project at least two more hikes by year-end, which lifted the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and front-end yields.

RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets updates its Brent crude outlook as it assumes the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for several more months, potentially reopening in September.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price depreciates nearly 4% after registering over 3% gains in the previous day, trading around $88.90 per barrel during the European hours on Wednesday. Crude oil prices decline as traders weigh potential progress toward a US-Iran peace agreement.

Commerzbank analyst Norman Liebke notes that Gold and Silver have dropped as renewed US strikes in the Gulf reinforced the inverse link with Oil. Higher energy prices raise inflation and rate fears, weighing on non-yielding metals.

Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux and colleagues note that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) held rates at 2.25% but turned more hawkish, while Australia’s softer Consumer Price Index (CPI) and underwhelming jobs data have markets trimming Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hike expectations.

Italy Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM) increased to 2% in March from previous 0.6%

Italy Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY) climbed from previous 0.5% to 4.4% in March

Austria UniCredit Bank Manufacturing PMI increased to 51.7 in May from previous 51.2

Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, May 27:

Danske Research Team highlights that Brent Oil has eased from a recent high near USD 100.5 per barrel to around USD 98. The move is described as limited, but sufficient to take some pressure off US Treasury yields.

Asian equity markets reflect a mixed performance on Wednesday, while uncertainty surrounding a breakthrough in the United States (US)-Iran negotiations has escalated, following Washington’s attacks on southern Iran.

Minneapolis Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank President Neel Kashkari said in the European trading session on Wednesday that the major concern for the central bank now is higher United States (US) inflation than deteriorating labor market conditions; however, the central bank needs to pay attention to both

Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley highlights that despite resilient Swiss growth and firm PMI readings, very low inflation leaves little need for imminent SNB tightening.

France Consumer Confidence registered at 82, below expectations (85) in May

Danske Research Team notes that US equities advanced, with the S&P 500 up 0.6% and the Russell 2000 outperforming with a 1.8% gain. The analysts stress that small caps are unusually strong given a perceived narrow tech-led rally and shifting rate expectations.

Volkmar Baur at Commerzbank notes the RBNZ held rates at 2.25% with a hawkish split vote, pushing market odds of a July hike above 70%.

A Bank of Japan (BoJ) official told Parliament during the Asian session on Wednesday that financial conditions in Japan remain easy, backing strong economic activity, a scenario that leaves room for tightening monetary conditions further.

New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (2.25%)

Australia Construction Work Done above expectations (0.9%) in 1Q: Actual (3.4%)