OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong expect USD/SGD to remain largely driven by broader US Dollar (USD) direction and risk sentiment, after recent rangebound trading around the low‑1.29s.

US President Donald Trump is imposing a new tariff of 50% on most Canadian products in response to what it called Canada's "discriminatory treatment" of US cars, alcohol, and dairy, according to the White House.

Gold price (XAU/USD) declines to near $4,000 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal extends its downside as escalating tensions between the United States (US) and Iran pushed oil prices up, intensifying inflation concerns. 

OCBC notes USD/MYR has risen on renewed US–Iran tensions and broader risk‑off sentiment, despite stronger Malaysian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and better foreign equity flows.

New Zealand’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 4.1% YoY in the second quarter (Q2) of 2026, compared with the 3.1% increase seen in the first quarter, according to the latest data published by Statistics New Zealand on Tuesday. The market consensus was for a growth of 4.0% in the reported period. 

New Zealand Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 4.1%, above expectations (4%) in 2Q

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong see USD/CNH staying broadly rangebound as the People's Bank of China (PBoC) fixing continues to anchor moves. Softer US inflation has recently weighed on the Dollar while firmer fixings allowed some gradual Renminbi (CNH) strength.

Commerzbank’s Dr. Henry Hao and Moses Lim report that Malaysia’s stronger-than-expected Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and subdued inflation support an unchanged policy rate of 2.75%. USD/MYR has remained within a 4.05–4.10 range, recently edging higher alongside crude oil prices.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang notes USD/SGD is stuck in a tight range after recent sideways trading, with intraday action expected between 1.2900 and 1.2930. On a 1–3 week horizon, the bank still sees downside risks if 1.2860 breaks, while 1.2930 remains strong resistance.

MUFG’s Lloyd Chan highlights that higher Oil prices and persistent inflation risks are weighing on Asian currencies, with the Indian Rupee (INR) and Thai Baht (THB) underperforming against the US Dollar.

Societe Generale’s Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem highlight that Brent has surged as US-Iran tensions, Trump’s rhetoric and Houthi blockade threats lift risk premia. Crack spreads in Asia and US have outperformed as refined products stay tighter than crude.

Deutsche Bank strategists analyses China’s AI (Artificial intelligence) ecosystem, noting that Chinese models are rapidly catching up in capability while being priced near mid-tier US systems.

Argentina Trade Balance (MoM) below forecasts ($2060M) in June: Actual ($2M)

Donald Trump opened the week on Truth Social with a promise that every American soldier killed by Iran will be repaid many times over, a directive he says has been passed to Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Daniel Caine, and every leader in the military.

The United Kingdom entered a new period of political uncertainty after Rachel Reeves stepped down as Chancellor of the Exchequer as part of the first cabinet reshuffle led by newly appointed Prime Minister Andy Burnham.

Societe Generale’s Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem highlight that Brent has surged as US-Iran tensions, Trump’s rhetoric and Houthi blockade threats lift risk premia. Crack spreads in Asia and US have outperformed as refined products stay tighter than crude.

BNY’s Geoff Yu sees Latin American currencies underpinned by strong balance-of-payments positions and attractive carry, even as global equity nerves rise.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects the ECB to leave rates at 2.25% this week after June’s 25 bps hike, maintaining a data-dependent stance without new projections.

Royal Bank of Canada’s (RBC) Abbey Xu notes that Canadian inflation eased in June, with Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowing to 2.8% year-over-year and energy prices reversing part of their earlier surge.

TD Securities expects the Federal Reserve to keep the Fed funds rate unchanged through 2026, as inflation stays above target and the labor market stabilizes.

James Smith at ING highlights that UK markets have reacted calmly to Andy Burnham becoming prime minister, with risk premia contained as investors expect no major policy shocks this year.

Canada’s inflation has cooled a tad in June, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 2.8% from a year earlier, coming in below market expectations and down from the 3.2% increase recorded in May. On a monthly basis, prices declined by 0.4%.

Canada Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM) unchanged at 0.2% in June

Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.8%, below expectations (2.9%) in June

Canada Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at -0.4%, below expectations (-0.2%) in June

Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY): 2.1% (June) vs previous 2.2%

Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) fell from previous 0.6% to 0.1% in June

Rabobank’s Jane Foley notes that softer Norwegian inflation has tempered expectations for further Norges Bank tightening, even after May’s 25 bps hike to 4.25%.

Commerzbank’s rates team expects higher oil prices and weak growth signals to shape Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting. A July rate hike is effectively ruled out, while markets have fully priced in another 25bp move in September.

TD Securities’ Julie Ioffe expects United Kingdom (UK) headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) to slow to 2.7% year-on-year in June, in line with consensus but below Bank of England (BoE) projections, as lower fuel prices offset sticky Services. Core CPI is seen at 2.6% and Services at 3.6%.