ING’s Francesco Pesole argues that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s November 2025 projections underestimated inflation, with recent CPI data overshooting forecasts.

Canada Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM) remains unchanged at 0.2% in January

Canada Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0%, below expectations (0.1%) in January

Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.3%, below expectations (2.4%) in January

Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) up to 0.2% in January from previous -0.4%

Canada Foreign Portfolio Investment in Canadian Securities came in at $-5.57B, below expectations ($14.27B) in December

Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) below expectations (2.1%) in December: Actual (2%)

Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) down to 2.6% in January from previous 2.8%

Canada Canadian Portfolio Investment in Foreign Securities: $13.06B (December) vs previous $16.49B

United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index above forecasts (6) in February: Actual (7.1)

United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average climbed from previous 6.5K to 10.3K in January 24

TD Securities expects UK January CPI to slow to 3.1% year-on-year, mainly on food and energy base effects, with core inflation seen unchanged at 3.2%. UK labour market data surprised negatively, with weaker job gains, higher unemployment and slowing wage growth.

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky expects the National Bank of Romania to keep rates at 6.50%, with inflation still high but projected to ease mid-year.

BNP Paribas analysts expect the Dollar to weaken, with the US economy still growing above potential in 2026 and inflation overshooting target due to tariffs. Analysts project the Fed Funds target range to remain at 3.5%-3.75% through 2026.

South Africa Unemployment Total dipped from previous 8.007M to 7.836M in 4Q

South Africa Unemployment Rate (%) fell from previous 31.9% to 31.4% in 4Q

Italy Trade Balance EU down to €-2.447B in December from previous €-1.959B

Italy Global Trade Balance registered at €6.037B above expectations (€4.5B) in December

The publication of Canada’s January Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures on Tuesday will be the focus of attention.

Deutsche Bank’s Chief UK Economist Sanjay Raja highlights further signs of weakness in the UK labour market, with falling HMRC payrolled employees, elevated redundancies and a higher unemployment rate. He argues that slack is likely to increase further, pushing the jobless rate higher.

BNP Paribas analysts project Eurozone growth at 1.6% in 2026, with quarterly expansion around 0.5% and inflation below 2%. Stronger activity and fiscal measures in Germany and higher military spending underpin the outlook.

Danske Research Team has shifted its Federal Reserve call, now expecting two 25 bp rate cuts in June and September instead of March and June. They then see the policy rate held at 3.00–3.25% through 2026–2027.

The Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) will release its German Economic Sentiment Index and the Current Situation Index for February at 10:00 GMT later on Tuesday.

United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate remains unchanged at 4.4% in January

United Kingdom Employment Change (3M) down to 52K in December from previous 82K

United Kingdom Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) in line with expectations (4.2%) in December

United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) came in at 5.2%, above expectations (5.1%) in December

United Kingdom Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) registered at 4.2%, below expectations (4.6%) in December

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights that the Pound underperformed after weak UK Q4 GDP reinforced expectations for further Bank of England rate cuts. Markets price a high probability of a March cut and around 50 bps of easing over twelve months.

Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen highlights that recent UK data have become crucial after the Bank of England’s narrow decision to keep rates unchanged. She argues that labour market and inflation releases could significantly move Pound exchange rates.