TD Securities strategists expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to leave the deposit rate at 2.00%, reiterating a meeting-by-meeting approach without pre-committing on future moves. However, recent inflation expectations data raise the risk of a more hawkish press conference.

United Kingdom BoE MPC Vote Rate Unchanged in line with forecasts (8)

United Kingdom BoE MPC Vote Rate Hike meets expectations (1)

United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (3.75%)

Deutsche Bank economists expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to keep the deposit rate at 2% while markets fully price a June hike due to Europe’s energy exposure.

South Africa Producer Price Index (YoY) up to 2.3% in March from previous 1.8%

South Africa Producer Price Index (MoM): 1.1% (March) vs 0%

Societe Generale strategists expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to keep rates unchanged today despite a hawkish bias after past late tightening. It warns that unresolved Gulf tensions in six weeks could make a future rate hike more contentious as growth risks rise.

Danske Research Team highlights that Brent has surged to around USD 124–126 per barrel as Iran-related tensions and a US naval blockade drive supply fears. They note Polymarket-implied odds of only a modest chance of normalised Hormuz traffic by end-May.

Greece Retail Sales (YoY) rose from previous 4.5% to 4.6% in February

Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) below forecasts (0.9%) in 1Q: Actual (0.8%)

Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) below forecasts (0.2%) in 1Q: Actual (0.1%)

Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) above forecasts (0.5%) in April: Actual (1.2%)

Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) registered at 1.7% above expectations (1.3%) in April

Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.8%, above expectations (2.6%) in April

Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) came in at 2.9%, above expectations (2.5%) in April

Deutsche Bank economists expect the Bank of England (BoE) to keep rates at 3.75%, stressing two-sided risks as growth forecasts are cut and inflation projections raised.

Portugal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) declined to 0% in 1Q from previous 0.9%

Portugal Gross Domestic Product (YoY) climbed from previous 1.9% to 2.3% in 1Q

Italy Unemployment came in at 5.2% below forecasts (5.3%) in March

Rabobank’s Senior Macro Strategist Bas van Geffen notes the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75%, with internal dissent over easing bias. He still projects two rate cuts under an incoming Chair Warsh but stresses risks are skewed toward fewer cuts.

Spain Current Account Balance increased to €4.04B in February from previous €2.73B

Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Thursday that they are moving closer to taking a decisive action in the foreign exchange markets, as reported by Reuters.

German preliminary Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rises at a steady pace of 0.3%, beats the estimates of 0.2%, according to the Federal Statistics Office of Germany. On an annualized basis,

Italy Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 0.7%, above forecasts (0.6%) in 1Q

Italy Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) above expectations (0.1%) in 1Q: Actual (0.2%)

Italy Gross Domestic Product (YoY) above expectations (0.6%) in 1Q: Actual (0.8%)

Italy Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) registered at 0.3% above expectations (0.1%) in 1Q

Germany Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at 0.3%, above expectations (0.2%) in 1Q

Germany Gross Domestic Product (YoY) in line with forecasts (0.3%) in 1Q