OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note USD/SGD rebounded sharply after Iran reclosed the Strait of Hormuz, reversing Friday’s drop to 1.2667.

UOB economists Julia Goh and Loke Siew Ting notes that Malaysia’s export momentum softened in March but the trade surplus widened to a one-year high. Strong Electrical and Electronics (E&E) shipments and re-exports supported exports, while imports were driven by capital goods.

BNP Paribas reports China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth at 5.0% year-on-year in Q1 2026 and for 2025 overall, with a moderate slowdown expected in 2026. The bank highlights a K-shaped pattern, with strong exports but weak domestic demand and a persistent property crisis.

Argentina Trade Balance (MoM) below expectations ($1010M) in March: Actual ($2M)

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong argue that Asian FX will likely unwind Friday’s rally after Iran’s renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz. High‑beta KRW is seen leading the pullback, while TWD, INR, THB and PHP also soften on Oil sensitivity.

TD Securities analysts note that Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.9% m/m in March, lifting annual inflation to 2.4% y/y, driven mainly by higher gasoline and transportation costs.

Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley notes that Governor Ueda’s earlier hawkish signals have been tempered by more cautious comments at the IMF meetings, leading some forecasters to doubt an April Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike.

Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economist Abbey Xu notes that Canadian headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 2.4% year-over-year, mainly on higher energy prices linked to conflict in the Middle East and tax distortions.

BNP Paribas expects Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to edge up to 1.6% in 2026 from 1.5% in 2025, supported by German fiscal measures, higher military spending and AI-related investment.

Quoting a senior Iranian official, Reuters reported that Iran is positively reviewing its participation in the next round of peace talks with the United States but no final decision has been made.

ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Aluminium prices briefly dropped as Iran pledged to keep the Strait of Hormuz open during a ceasefire, but renewed closure has refocused markets on supply risk.

TD Securities strategists expect United Kingdom (UK) labour market data for February to show stabilisation, with a slight dip in unemployment and moderate job gains. Wage growth is forecast to slow across key measures, aligning with consensus.

Canada Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM): 0% (March) vs previous 0.2%

Canada Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.9%, below expectations (1.1%) in March

Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.4%, below expectations (2.5%) in March

Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) down to 0.2% in March from previous 0.4%

Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) up to 2.5% in March from previous 2.3%

Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) highlights that renewed Strait of Hormuz tensions have lifted Brent Oil nearly $10 from recent lows and weighed on global risk assets, with the US Dollar (USD) slightly firmer.

Societe Generale strategists highlight that Brent futures have swung sharply with conflict headlines, recently rebounding to $95/bbl.

TD Securities strategists expect Canada’s March Consumer Price Index (CPI) to accelerate as higher energy prices lift the headline rate, while food disinflation offsets some of the impact.

DBS Group Research’s Philip Wee highlights how the US Senate confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair could reshape the risk premium on the Dollar.

Rabobank’s Senior Market Strategist Benjamin Picton highlights how shifting perceptions around the Strait of Hormuz are driving sharp moves in Brent.

Canada’s economic docket opens on Monday with the key Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for March, which will be closely watched to gauge the inflationary impact of the war in Iran.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose assesses the latest inflation data for Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary following the recent energy price spike. He notes that while headline inflation accelerated as expected, core measures show only mild, statistically noisy upticks.

Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said during the European trading session on Monday that there is “no plan for a second round of negotiations with the United States (US) for now.

Here is what you need to know on Monday, April 20:

ING’s Chris Turner notes the US Dollar (USD) briefly weakened after news that the Strait of Hormuz was fully open, implying US Dollar Index (DXY) around 97.50/98.00 and EUR/USD just over 1.18 if the crisis were resolved.

HSBC Asset Management highlights that global stock indices have stayed resilient through the Oil shock, while valuations and risk premia have adjusted more meaningfully.

According to the Iranian Republic News Agency, Iran President Masoud Pezeshkian said during European trading hours on Monday that the "war is in no one's interest”, and “every rational and diplomatic path should be used to reduce tensions”.

UOB economists Quek Ser Leang Lee and Sue Ann note that GBP/USD spiked to 1.3599 before dropping sharply and then sliding again on Monday. They see a chance of a test of 1.3450, with 1.3400 unlikely to be threatened.