United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions up to 120.1K from previous 81.7K

United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions dipped from previous £-55.6K to £-64.8K

Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions dipped from previous $-37.7K to $-40K

United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions declined to $-17.2K from previous $-16.8K

Eurozone CFTC EUR NC Net Positions declined to €-72.4K from previous €-41.3K

United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions fell from previous $183.9K to $182.1K

Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions declined to ¥-163.4K from previous ¥-152.1K

United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: $-163.4K vs previous $183.9K

Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed) President Tom Barkin said on Friday that it remains uncertain whether the current level of interest rates is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation back to the Fed's 2% target, according to an interview with The Wall Street Journal.

TD Securities’ Robert Both and Emma Lawrence note that stronger-than-expected Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data support a brighter growth outlook but do not materially change their Bank of Canada (BoC) view.

Scotiabank’s FX team notes EUR/USD is drifting toward 1.15 after a Fed‑driven rally, with euro area CPI broadly in line with expectations and French data briefly lifting the Euro. Rate expectations are stabilizing, with about 42 bps of tightening priced by December.

Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economists Abbey Xu and Nathan Janzen note that Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose 0.3% in May, with an advance estimate of 0.2% for June, indicating a solid second-quarter rebound after winter stagnation.

TD Securities economists Eli Nir and Oscar Munoz highlight that Q2 United States (US) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth slowed to 1.5% q/q AR, but underlying private domestic final purchases accelerated to 3.9%.

Commerzbank’s Norman Liebke highlights that China’s July trade data will be key for base metals, especially Aluminium. Chinese Aluminium output in H1 exceeded the official cap, suggesting production may ease later this year.

ING economists Deepali Bhargava and Lynn Song expect the Reserve Bank of India to keep the repo rate at 5.25% this week. They note that while June headline inflation rose on higher fuel prices, core inflation remains below target.

UOB economist Ho Woei Chen highlights that China’s July CFLP PMIs slipped into contraction, with both manufacturing and non-manufacturing gauges signaling broad-based weakness in activity. The report notes particularly soft industrial output and services, while construction also declined.

TD Securities notes the Bank of Japan (BoJ) left its policy rate at 1% with an 8–1 vote, as Governor Ueda delivered notably hawkish remarks. Despite this, the Japanese Yen (JPY) reaction was muted, and the TD forecasts the next 25 bps hike only in December.

Canada’s economy cooled a tad in May. Indeed, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.3%, adding to the previous month's 0.6% expansion (revised from 0.5%), according to data released by Statistics Canada.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights that the Bank of England (BoE) left rates at 3.75% with a 6–3 vote, while Governor Andrew Bailey pushed back against expectations of an imminent hike.

TD Securities strategists highlight that Euro area Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation rose to 2.9% y/y in July, with core inflation at 2.5% and services inflation at 3.3%, indicating only limited evidence of meaningful second-round effects.

Commerzbank’s Norman Liebke and colleagues highlight that Brent remains volatile as Middle East tensions and shipping disruptions through key chokepoints constrain supply.

TD Securities strategists expect Canadian real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to rise by 0.2% m/m in May, exceeding the flash estimate and extending April’s 0.5% gain. They highlight balanced growth across goods and services, with manufacturing, existing home sales and retail trade all contributing.

Rabobank strategists highlight renewed weakness in China, with official PMI data showing both manufacturing and non-manufacturing back in contraction and domestic demand still soft. Policymakers are prioritizing faster implementation of existing measures over new stimulus.

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Martin Kocher said in European trade on Friday that recent weeks have demonstrated how quickly geopolitical developments can alter energy prices and, consequently, the inflation outlook.

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister notes that the Bank of England kept rates unchanged and avoided signalling future hikes, despite a closer-than-expected 6–3 vote and Governor Bailey’s insistence that the BoE is not edging toward tightening.

UOB strategists observe that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept the Fed Funds Target Rate at 3.50%–3.75% for a fifth meeting, with a 9–3 split as three presidents sought a 25 bps hike.

Nomura strategists highlight that Euro area Gross Domestic Product (GDP) excluding Ireland has been growing around potential despite the Iran war.

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur notes that EUR/USD has broken back above 1.15 for the first time since mid-June as Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) outpaced United States (US) growth in annualised terms.

UOB strategists highlight that the Bank of England (BoE) kept its policy rate at 3.75%, with Governor Bailey stressing no move toward a hike despite US-Iran conflict risks.

Deutsche Bank strategists note that strong Microsoft earnings triggered a global technology rebound, lifting the KOSPI, Nasdaq and semiconductor stocks.