UOB’s Alvin Liew expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep policy on hold for an extended period in 2026, with only one 25-basis-point cut pencilled in for 4Q26. The shift from earlier expectations of two cuts reflects persistent inflation pressures and delayed labour weakness.

Commerzbank notes that India’s April PMIs (Purchasing Managers' Index) show resilient activity in both manufacturing and services despite global uncertainty and higher input costs. External demand remains firm for goods, while domestic demand drives services.

The USD/JPY pair gains ground to around 157.15 during the early European session on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) edges higher against the Euro (EUR) as ongoing concerns over the Middle East conflict boost safe-haven flows. 

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) launched a multi-pronged strategy on Monday to stabilize domestic markets and elevate the Chinese Yuan's global standing. 

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Martin Kocher said that there’s no need to delay the interest rate hikes if energy prices don’t improve swiftly.

The AUD/JPY cross posts modest gains near 113.60 during the early European trading hours on Monday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges higher against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on a hawkish tone from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

The European Central Bank (ECB) outgoing Vice President Luis de Guindos said that the central bank needs to be prudent when deciding on an expected interest rate hike next month as growth was set to weaken, the Financial Times reported on Monday.

Indonesia Consumer Confidence up to 123 in April from previous 122.9

China Consumer Price Index (MoM) above expectations (-0.1%) in April: Actual (0.3%)

China Consumer Price Index (YoY) above expectations (0.8%) in April: Actual (1.2%)

China Producer Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.8%, above expectations (1.5%) in April

Gold price (XAU/USD) falls to around $4,690 during the early Asian session on Monday. The precious metal attracts some sellers after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest peace offer to end the 10-week conflict choking the Strait of Hormuz, fanning inflation fears. 

The National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) will publish its data for April at 01.30 GMT. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show an increase of 0.8% YoY in April, compared to 1.0% in March.

China Exports (YoY) CNY climbed from previous -0.7% to 9.8% in April

China Trade Balance USD registered at $84.82B above expectations ($83.3B) in April

China Exports (YoY) came in at 14.1%, above expectations (7.9%) in April

China Imports (YoY) above expectations (15.2%) in April: Actual (25.3%)

China Trade Balance CNY increased to 585.69B in April from previous 354.75B

Iran has sent its response to the United States (US) proposal via Pakistan on Sunday, according to the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA).

Colombia Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.78%, above expectations (0.73%) in April

Colombia Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 5.68%, above expectations (5.63%) in April

Rabobank strategists assess how the US and Israel’s war against Iran could affect China. They note higher Oil and gas prices and global cost-push inflation, but argues China’s inflation is unlikely to force PBOC tightening.

ING’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Lynn Song, notes that Taiwan’s April trade data showed slower export and import growth versus expectations, with the trade surplus easing to USD14.35bn.

Standard Chartered’s Aldian Taloputra notes Indonesia’s GDP growth accelerated to 5.6% year-on-year in Q1 2026, driven by front-loaded fiscal stimulus, seasonal festival spending and limited pass-through from higher Oil prices.

MUFG economists Lin Li, Michael Wan, Lloyd Chan and Khang Sek Lee outline a base case where the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by end‑May eases pressures on Asian currencies.

United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions down to £-63.9K from previous £-60.6K

United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions climbed from previous $159.6K to $163.3K

United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions fell from previous $-101.4K to $-103.9K

United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions dipped from previous 191.9K to 178.8K

Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions: $78.7K vs $71.9K