TD Securities strategists expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to leave the deposit rate at 2.00%, reiterating a meeting-by-meeting approach without pre-committing on future moves. However, recent inflation expectations data raise the risk of a more hawkish press conference.
Deutsche Bank economists expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to keep the deposit rate at 2% while markets fully price a June hike due to Europe’s energy exposure.
Societe Generale strategists expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to keep rates unchanged today despite a hawkish bias after past late tightening. It warns that unresolved Gulf tensions in six weeks could make a future rate hike more contentious as growth risks rise.
Danske Research Team highlights that Brent has surged to around USD 124–126 per barrel as Iran-related tensions and a US naval blockade drive supply fears. They note Polymarket-implied odds of only a modest chance of normalised Hormuz traffic by end-May.
Deutsche Bank economists expect the Bank of England (BoE) to keep rates at 3.75%, stressing two-sided risks as growth forecasts are cut and inflation projections raised.
Rabobank’s Senior Macro Strategist Bas van Geffen notes the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75%, with internal dissent over easing bias. He still projects two rate cuts under an incoming Chair Warsh but stresses risks are skewed toward fewer cuts.
Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Thursday that they are moving closer to taking a decisive action in the foreign exchange markets, as reported by Reuters.