Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Chief Economist Paul Conway said on Tuesday that the central bank is not discussing a shift to a tightened policy stance, adding that inflation is to return to 2% over the medium term. 

Commerzbank’s Dr. Henry Hao argues China’s housing downturn, now in its fifth year, is settling into an L-shaped stagnation with a pronounced K-shaped regional divergence.

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that Barisan Nasional’s strong win in Johor reinforces UMNO’s political momentum but leaves federal policy continuity intact, limiting immediate implications for the Malaysian Ringgit (MYR).

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that Barisan Nasional’s strong win in Johor reinforces UMNO’s political momentum but leaves federal policy continuity intact, limiting immediate implications for the Malaysian Ringgit (MYR).

New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence (QoQ): 8% (2Q) vs -4%

UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/CNH fell more than expected to 6.7766 before rebounding, with the sharp decline seen stabilising and intraday consolidation likely between 6.7780 and 6.7920. For the next 1–3 weeks, they expect range trading between 6.7700 and 6.8100.

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong observe that USD/SGD has turned slightly softer, tracking Renminbi (RMB) gains as the Dollar consolidates. They see risks skewed to the downside, with support at 1.29 and 1.2840 and resistance at 1.2980.

DBS Group Research, led by Ma Tieying, assesses Taiwan’s AI-driven expansion and its implications for the 2H26 outlook. The bank notes that AI remains central for Taiwan’s technology-oriented economy and that the AI supercycle is nearing a peak.

Commerzbank’s Dr. Henry Hao and Moses Lim note that Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) kept the OPR at 2.75% for a sixth straight meeting, maintaining a cautious tone on global risks. Growth is still expected within a 4–5% range, with inflation contained.

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that USD/CNH dipped after a stronger USD/CNY fix below 6.80, the first such level since February 2023. They read this as policymakers being comfortable with further RMB appreciation while managing the pace.

UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/SGD opened stronger after a quiet prior session, with upward momentum tentatively building but still facing resistance around 1.2945–1.2955. For the next 1–3 weeks, they keep its view that USD/SGD will trade between 1.2890 and 1.2990.

United States Monthly Budget Statement came in at $-120B, above forecasts ($-132.8B) in June

TradingKey — 크리스토퍼 월러 연방준비제도(Fed·연준) 이사의 최근 발언은 근원 인플레이션이 높은 수준을 유지할 경우 연준이 단기적으로 통화 긴축을 단행할 가능성을 배제하지 않는다고 밝히며 명확한 매파적 신호를 보냈다. 이는 금리 인하로의 정책 전환을 기대하던 시장의 기존 완화 기대감을 직접적으로 무너뜨렸다.월러 이사는 향후 경제 지표가 인플레이

BNY’s Geoff Yu highlights that Emerging Markets (EM) equity positioning is heavily skewed toward South Korea and Taiwan, with the rest of EM seeing historically low allocations. China’s weakness and poor EM data have already driven valuations to price in disinflation and weak growth.

United States (US) President Donald Trump announced that the Strait of Hormuz is open and will remain accessible to international shipping “with or without Iran,” while outlining a new US-led security arrangement for the strategic waterway.

Danske Research Team reports that overall consumer spending excluding energy in June was broadly unchanged on the month, with real spending up 4.3% year-on-year. Real retail spending on goods rose, particularly in larger consumer categories, while service spending generally declined.

Rabobank's Senior Macro Strategist Bas van Geffen highlights a US‑centric data and policy calendar, with June CPI expected to ease to 3.8% year‑on‑year and core inflation to 2.8%.

TD Securities economists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir highlight that the June FOMC minutes were hawkish, with most participants ready to hike if supply-driven inflation persists.

Commerzbank’s Dr. Jörg Krämer describes Switzerland’s strong federalism and extensive use of financial referenda as key to its superior economic outcomes. Cantons and municipalities compete for taxpayers by setting their own tax rates and controlling spending.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) trades in a tight range against the Euro (EUR) as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) actively works to neutralize safe-haven capital inflows stemming from increased geopolitical woes. 

Iran’s top joint military command issued a series of warnings on Monday over the Strait of Hormuz, saying any unauthorized United States (US) transit would be confronted and cautioning neighboring countries against supporting Washington.

Russia Foreign Trade up to $14.154B in May from previous $11.431B

In an interview with Fox News on Monday, United States (US) President Donald Trump said that they will probably take over the Strait of Hormuz and argued that they should be reimbursed for controlling it.

BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that the Bank of Canada (BoC) is widely expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 2.25%, with markets not pricing cuts until at least Q4.

Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley discusses EUR/CHF performance since the Iran war, noting that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has intervened to counter safe haven inflows while the European Central Bank’s (ECB) hawkish stance has supported the Euro (EUR).

ING strategist Frantisek Taborsky says Central and Eastern European FX will be driven by secondary data and policy expectations. A dovish National Bank of Poland stance and market pricing of future rate cuts are seen weighing on the Zloty, with ING’s models pointing EUR/PLN closer to 4.340.

India’s retail Consumer Price Index (CPI) rises at an annualized pace of 4.38% in June, stronger than 4.3% estimates and the previous reading of 3.93%.

Societe Generale strategists note that India’s June Consumer Price Index (CPI) release will be important for bond markets, with the 10-year IGB yield holding near its 200-day moving average around 6.71%.

ING analysts Chris Turner, Frantisek Taborsky and Francesco Pesole note that higher energy prices and tensions in the Gulf are supporting the Dollar against low-yielding currencies. They highlight that US energy independence and live Fed tightening prospects underpin Dollar strength.

A spokesperson from the Iranian Foreign Ministry has confirmed in the European trade on Monday that efforts from Qatar, Oman, and Pakistan to mediate tensions with the United States (US) continue.