ING strategist Francesco Pesole reports that Sterling gained modestly, helped by Chancellor John Healey’s first major speech stressing fiscal discipline and keeping long-end gilt moves aligned with global bond selling.

Societe Generale analysts note EUR/HUF is trading within a base formation but continues to struggle with the 200-day moving average around 371, seen as crucial resistance.

USD/IDR depreciates after two days of gains, trading around 17,670 during European hours on Tuesday. The pair loses ground as the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) is drawing support from positive economic sentiment following reassuring remarks from Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa.

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky highlights that Hungarian inflation rebounded to 1.3% in August but stayed below expectations and the NBH’s forecast, with price growth seen remaining under target this year.

Danske Bank notes European equities were broadly flat on Monday, with the Stoxx 600 unchanged and OMX Nordic slightly higher, while Asian markets rallied in thin trading as US markets were closed for Labor Day.

Austria Trade Balance rose from previous €-635.5M to €-29.2M in June

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Hunter said on Tuesday that the housing market is an important transition mechanism for monetary policy. Hunter added that the central bank is looking to cool things off in both the housing market and the broader economy.

China's Trade Balance for August, in US Dollar (USD) terms, arrives at $119.09 billion, almost in line with $119.1 billion estimates, but higher than the July reading of $112.5 billion.

China Trade Balance USD came in at $119.09B, below expectations ($119.1B) in August

China Imports (YoY) came in at 28.2% below forecasts (30%) in August

China Exports (YoY) in line with forecasts (25%) in August

China Trade Balance CNY above forecasts (795B) in August: Actual (809.3B)

China Exports (YoY) CNY: 18.6% (August) vs 17.8%

Citi Mexico released its September “Expectations Survey,” in which most private economists expect the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to hold rates unchanged, while the exchange rate is forecast to end below the 18.00 threshold by the end of 2026.

OCBC’s Christopher Wong notes that recent Thai Baht (THB) strength may slow as external conditions turn less supportive. Governor Vitai’s comments suggest further rate cuts are unlikely without another shock, tempering easing expectations.

Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay highlights Hong Kong’s first five-year plan to strengthen its position as the leading offshore CNY and cross-border financial centre.

MUFG’s Lloyd Chan warns that upcoming US inflation data could test the recent Rupiah recovery, as firmer US inflation may reinforce elevated US yields and challenge USD/IDR’s break below 17,700.

Commerzbank’s Vietnam update highlights rising inflation and a narrowing trade deficit, with strong manufacturing-led imports and resilient exports. The bank notes elevated CPI and external deficits limit scope for aggressive easing, but robust activity persists.

BNY’s Geoff Yu highlights that a stronger US Dollar (USD), higher Oil prices and rising global yields are pressuring Asian currencies and assets.

HSBC’s Willem Sels highlights that accelerating AI adoption, resilient growth and broadening earnings are supporting global equities into Q4 2026. The bank has recently added exposure to global stocks, favouring the US and Asia, while keeping sector diversification.

ABN AMRO’s Chief Economist Germany, Alexander Krüger, notes that German economic output is rising and the bank has raised its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast for 2026 to 1.3% and for 2027 to 1.1%.

The US Dollar (USD) has started the week on the back foot, rapidly leaving behind Friday’s uptick and refocusing on the downside.

TD Securities expects US output growth to move sideways in 2026 as the prior Oil shock lingers and the Iran conflict poses stagflationary risks. GDP is forecast to end 2026 at 2.1% Q4/Q4, with unemployment around 4.2%. The bank assigns a 25% probability to a US recession over the next year.

Societe Generale’s UK team notes weakening housing demand as mortgage approvals fall to late-2023 lows, while business lending remains firm and wage expectations show limited second-round effects.

TD Securities economists Robert Both and Emma Lawrence highlight that the Bank of Canada adopted a more hawkish tone, emphasizing upside inflation risks even as core inflation stays subdued.

ABN AMRO economists Bill Diviney and Jan-Paul van de Kerke expect Eurozone growth to remain resilient despite a renewed energy shock, supported by German fiscal spending and solid underlying activity.

Deutsche Bank economists Sanjay Raja and Maui Brennan expect United Kingdom (UK) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to have slipped slightly in July after strong growth earlier in 2026. They forecast a modest monthly contraction led by services and production, with construction only marginally higher.

TD Securities projects August Core CPI at 0.19% m/m and 2.3% y/y, with services driving gains and core goods slightly negative. Headline CPI is seen at 0.37% m/m and 3.4% y/y on higher energy and food.

Societe Generale economists Anatoli Annenkov, Michel Martinez and colleagues expect Euro area inflation to stay above target beyond 2027, with headline inflation projected to peak near 3.7-3.8% and core around 2.7-2.8%.

OCBC’s Christopher Wong expects Asia ex-Japan (AxJ) currencies to start the week on a selectively cautious footing after renewed US–Iran tensions lifted Brent above US$96.