MUFG’s Head of Research Derek Halpenny highlights that the Pound is currently the third best performing G10 currency since the conflict began, supported by a sharp 35 bps jump in UK 2-year yields and reduced BoE rate-cut pricing.

Nomura’s Senior European Economist Andrzej Szczepaniak notes that traders have increased pricing for European Central Bank rate hikes after hawkish comments from ECB members Kazimir, Kazaks.

UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan notes that US February CPI data predates recent market volatility but remains important for Federal Reserve policy. He expects underlying inflation pressures to be benign and argues central banks should only react to broad price increases.

MUFG’s Head of Research Derek Halpenny notes that the proposed IEA-coordinated Oil reserve release could temporarily offset supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, but markets are shifting focus to US inflation.

Antje Praefcke at Commerzbank notes that Norwegian inflation fell in February but remains too strong for an imminent policy shift.

Spain Retail Sales (YoY) climbed from previous 2.9% to 4% in January

Danske Research Team observes that EUR/USD is little changed below 1.1650, with 2‑year Bund and US Treasury yields slightly lower.

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and Germany's Bundesbank chief Joachim Nagel told Reuters on Wednesday that the central bank will be ready to act if surging energy costs due to the Iran war feed into durably higher Eurozone inflation.

Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke argues that US inflation data are unlikely to move the Dollar near term, as markets focus on Oil and the Iran war.

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Peter Kazimir comments on the central bank’s path forward on interest rates in light of the conflict in the Middle East.

DBS Group Research economist Eugene Leow highlights that consensus expects US CPI at 2.4% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month for February, with investors highly sensitive to upside surprises.

Danske Research Team notes that European equities rebounded strongly, with Stoxx 600 up 2% and OMX Nordic nearly 3%, while US indices ended slightly lower. Tech and growth stocks outperformed value despite a modest rise in US 10‑year yields.

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council (GC) member and Bank of France Governor, François Villeroy de Galhau, urged patience on the bank’s interest rate move amid the Middle East conflict.

RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Nathan Janzen argue higher Oil prices from current supply disruptions are unlikely to trigger a major Bank of Canada policy shift. Past rate cuts in 2015 reflected a structural Oil shock, unlike today’s geopolitical spike.

A Reuters poll showed on Wednesday that all 64 respondents said the Bank of Japan (BOJ) would keep rates unchanged at 0.75% next week.

USD/INR remains flat after paring daily losses on Wednesday as the Indian Rupee (INR) received support from lower oil prices after reports that the International Energy Agency (IEA) may release record oil reserves to stabilize markets.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on Wednesday escalated its operations against the United States (US) and Israel. IRGC announced the start of targeting the enemy's technological infrastructure in the region.

AUD/USD extends its winning streak for the fourth successive session, trading around 0.7130 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair advances as the Australian Dollar (AUD) gains support from growing expectations of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate hike next week.

Japan Producer Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (0.1%) in February: Actual (-0.1%)

Japan Producer Price Index (YoY) below expectations (2.1%) in February: Actual (2%)

The European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said late Tuesday that the degree of uncertainty and volatility is very surprising. Lagarde added that the central bank will take the necessary measures to control inflation.

The US Central Command said in a statement that US forces eliminated multiple Iranian naval vessels, including 16 minelayers operating near the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported on Wednesday. 

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lee Hardman highlights that strong Chinese trade data and a firmer PBoC daily fix are supporting the Chinese Yuan.

UOB economist Ho Woei Chen highlights that strong China exports and imports in early 2026 are supporting growth, with clear diversification away from the US toward ASEAN, EU and regional partners.

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Michael Wan argues Asian currencies have been buffeted by Iran-related headlines as Asia’s heavy reliance on Middle East energy and Strait of Hormuz flows magnifies risk.

Standard Chartered economists maintain their call for Bank Indonesia to cut its policy rate by 25 bps in Q2-2026, but note that higher Oil prices and inflation now tilt risks toward a prolonged hold.

United States 3-Year Note Auction up to 3.579% from previous 3.518%

ING economists Peter Virovacz and Zoltán Homolya note that Hungarian inflation fell to 1.4% year-on-year in February 2026, below consensus and their own optimistic forecast. Core inflation dropped to 2.1%, but rising energy costs, fuel prices and a weaker Forint threaten this benign picture.

Nordea’s Chief Analyst Torbjörn Isaksson highlights that Swedish GDP and production fell in January, driven by sharp declines in construction and manufacturing, while household consumption and services still grew.

Nomura’s Global Markets Research Team expects the ECB to keep rates on hold through 2026, assuming Brent and Dutch TTF futures fall back towards pre-conflict levels.