ING’s Francesco Pesole expects the Bank of England (BoE) to leave rates unchanged this week, with a 7–2 vote remaining the base case, although Catherine Mann could join Huw Pill and Megan Greene in supporting a rate hike.

Japan Prime Minister (PM) Sanae Takaichi said during the European trading session on Monday that the economy needs to exit from fiscal tightness.

ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Brent has retreated sharply, briefly dropping below US$90/bbl as the US and Iran paused further strikes.

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that markets have repriced the risk of a July Fed hike higher after Oil-driven inflation worries, but still expect no move.

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said during the European trading session on Monday that mediation efforts by Gulf countries towards the United States (US)-Iran diplomatic solution remain active, but Tehran is not having direct talks with Washington.

ING’s Francesco Pesole notes that EUR/USD has rebounded above 1.140 on lower Oil prices but argues the move looks optimistic without a clear de-escalation in geopolitical tensions.

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and Governor of the National Bank of Slovakia (NBS), Peter Kazimir, seems to be leaning towards a hawkish monetary policy outlook.

The German IFO Institute Business Climate Index improves to 86.6 in July, higher than 86.1 estimates and the June’s reading of 85.7, revised higher from 85.6.

Here is what you need to know on Monday, July 27:

The remarks from European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and Governor of Croatia's central bank, Ante Žigman, in an interview with Jutarnji List, released during the European trading session on Monday, signal that the central bank will remain vigilant about the intensity and duration of

Deutsche Bank’s strategists note that global equities delivered a mixed performance, with the S&P 500 posting a second consecutive weekly decline even as semiconductor shares recovered. European and some Asian markets fared better, while US futures moved higher at the start of the week.

Gold prices rose in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

USD/IDR has recovered its losses from the previous trading day, hovering around 18,050 during the Asian hours on Monday.

Japan Corporate Service Price Index (YoY): 3.2% (June) vs previous 3.3%

USD/JPY remains subdued for the second successive day, trading around 163.60 during the Asian hours on Monday.

Here’s a brief recap of the key developments in the Middle East war that occurred over the weekend, which are expected to have a significant impact on markets in the upcoming week.

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to leave the Singapore Dollar (SGD) Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (S$NEER) policy unchanged at Monday’s meeting despite a modest rebound in core Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 1.6% year-on-year in June.

DBS Group Research economist Chua Han Teng argues that Malaysia’s financial markets reflect confidence in the country’s solid domestic fundamentals despite lingering Middle East geopolitical risks.

Commerzbank reports that South Korea’s advance Q2 GDP rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and 3.7% year-on-year, beating expectations. Robust AI-related semiconductor demand and resilient domestic spending underpin growth. The strong data support prospects of a further 25bp Bank of Korea hike in August.

The upcoming week will be dominated by monetary policy decisions from the Federal Reserve (Fed), Bank of England (BoE) and Bank of Japan (BoJ).

TradingKey - 중국의 AI 거대언어모델들이 다시 한번 글로벌 시장의 주목을 받고 있다.최근 중국 AI 개발사 문샷 AI(Moonshot AI)는 차세대 거대 모델 '키미 K3(Kimi K3)'를 공식 출시했다. 오픈웨이트(가중치 개방형) 아키텍처와 글로벌 선도 모델에 육박하는 성능, 한층 경쟁력 있는 추론 비용을 갖춘 키미 K3는 해외 기술 업계와

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that the Thai Baht (THB) is trading near its weakest level in more than a year against the US Dollar (USD), as volatile oil prices, a firmer USD and higher US yields weigh on the currency.

UOB Global Economics & Markets Research notes that Bank Indonesia kept its policy rate at 5.75%, opting to let earlier tightening filter through.

MUFG’s Lloyd Chan expects MAS to keep policy unchanged at the July meeting while maintaining a tightening bias, distinguishing between energy-driven and domestically generated inflation. Strong Singapore growth and a positive output gap justify tight settings.

Commerzbank’s Marco Stoeckle argues that the AI trade is at a crossroads, with ‘Mag 7’ euphoria fading and hyperscalers facing cash flow and leverage concerns. In contrast, semiconductor and memory stocks, tracked by SOX and KOSPI, saw hyperbolic gains before sharp drawdowns.

Pakistan and Iran are exploring a possible path toward renewed negotiations with the United States (US) as part of a new diplomatic initiative supported by China, Reuters reported, citing several sources familiar with the discussions.

Lloyd Chan at MUFG highlights that Singapore’s June inflation data stayed benign, with modest upticks in headline and core CPI. MAS is expected to keep policy unchanged in July but retain a tightening bias.

Rabobank’s Stefan Koopman expects the Bank of England (BoE) to keep Bank Rate at 3.75% on 30 July and unchanged through 2026, even as markets still price some chance of further tightening.

TD Securities reports that Canadian Retail Sales rose 1.0% month-on-month in May, matching consensus but slightly below its forecast. Gains were broad-based, led by gasoline stations, autos, general merchandise and sporting goods.

Commerzbank analysts highlight that ECB President Lagarde has opened the door to a September rate hike, with sources suggesting euro area inflation must improve markedly to avoid tightening.