Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack crossed the wires on Monday and was hawkish, noting that the current rate is not “meaningfully restricting the economy” and that there is a need for some number of rate hikes.

US Treasury yields rose on Monday as traders braced for the release of US inflation figures this week, following a worse-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls report last Friday.

Standard Chartered analysts Carol Liao and Moriarty Lam argue that China’s reflation remains largely cost-driven, with industrial profit recovery concentrated in AI- and oil-related sectors. They highlight that domestic demand continues to lag supply, creating a persistent imbalance.

TD Securities notes July payrolls surprised sharply to the downside, with headline jobs dragged by government hiring, while private employment stayed near breakeven.

In a major setback to efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and cool Middle East tensions, Iran ruled out any future negotiations with United States (US) President Donald Trump. Iranian outlets and a X post by y an adviser to Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.

United States (US) President Donald Trump used a post on his Truth Social platform to push back on Iran's demands for war reparations, arguing that Tehran, not Washington, should carry the bill for the damage and lives lost across the region.

HSBC Asset Management notes that Emerging Market local-currency bonds have delivered strong returns over the past four years, supported by credible policies and attractive real yields, but year-to-date performance has softened as US Treasury yields rose and EM-US real rate differentials narrowed.

Nordea economist Jan Størup Nielsen notes that Danish inflation eased slightly in July, with headline consumer prices up 1.7% year-over-year and core inflation steady at 2.3%.

Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley notes Eurozone Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data surprised to the upside, suggesting resilience despite higher energy prices and supply disruptions.

TD Securities’ US economists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir expect US output growth to move sideways in 2026 as the lingering Oil shock and Iran-related risks keep the Federal Reserve on hold through year-end.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose notes that the Hungarian Forint (HUF) has only partially retraced its post-election gains and is expected to recover if global risk conditions stabilise, with EUR/HUF seen returning towards 350–355 in coming months.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that Norwegian Krone (NOK) is trading mixed as firmer Oil offsets the drag from reduced Norges Bank tightening expectations.

Rabobank’s Bas van Geffen comments that weaker United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and a drop in labour supply have reduced urgency for another Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike, though policy remains data‑dependent.

Societe Generale analysts Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem argue that Copper has shifted into a policy-driven trade as Section 232 tariffs reshape the COMEX-LME arbitrage.

Nomura’s Josie Anderson, George Buckley and Andrzej Szczepaniak expect Norges Bank to keep its policy rate at 4.25% at the August meeting, citing softer underlying inflation and benign domestic data.

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky highlights a busy Central and Eastern Europe calendar with Czech inflation, Turkey’s inflation report and key Polish data, including GDP and core inflation.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad notes that the Australian Dollar (AUD) remains one of the most attractive G10 currencies thanks to favorable carry and a hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

TradingKey - 미국 노동통계국은 미 동부시간 기준 8월 12일 오전 8시 30분에 7월 소비자물가지수(CPI)를 발표할 예정이다. 7월 비농업 부문 고용이 예상외로 2만 3,000명 감소하고 9월 연방준비제도(Fed·연준)의 금리 인상에 대한 시장의 기대감이 크게 축소된 데 따라, 이번 CPI 발표는 연준의 향후 정책 방향을 결정하는 핵심 지표가

Deutsche Bank strategists highlight that negotiations between Iran and Oman over a new shipping framework through the Strait of Hormuz remain finely balanced, with Tehran linking any lasting arrangement to broader demands on the US.

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky says Romania’s unchanged Baa3 rating at Moody’s and prior Fitch decision should ease pressure after recent ROMGBs underperformance.

EUR/CAD inches higher after three days of losses, trading around 1.6120 during the European hours on Monday. The currency cross is holding its ground, driven primarily by a resilient Euro (EUR) following positive Eurozone economic sentiment.

HSBC Asset Management reviews recent coordinated intervention by Japanese and US authorities to support the Japanese Yen, recalling the sharp carry-trade unwind during the previous episode two years ago.

Deutsche Bank strategists report that falling energy prices helped push the S&P 500 and other major equity indices to record highs last week. The rally was reinforced by a renewed AI (Artificial intelligence) trade, with semiconductor stocks posting particularly strong gains.

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister analyses NOK/SEK through oil-price sensitivity and rate expectations. He finds the Norwegian Krone reacts more strongly to oil than the Swedish Krona, while Riksbank expectations adjust more to oil shocks than Norges Bank.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad argues that the British Pound (GBP) requires a stronger-than-expected United Kingdom (UK) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) print to gain upside traction.

Deutsche Bank strategists report that falling energy prices and softer Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations helped push the S&P 500 and other major equity indices to new record highs last week.

The Indian Rupee (INR) opens on a negative note against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the week. The USD/INR pair rebounds to near 95.22 as oil prices extend their recovery move and the US Dollar regains ground after a weak Friday.

USD/IDR holds gains after registering over 0.5% losses in the previous trading day, hovering around 17,860 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair continues to trade with an upward bias as the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) faces pressure following the release of domestic Consumer Confidence data.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is gaining ground after registering modest losses in the previous day and trading around 99.70 during the Asian hours on Monday.

Indonesia Consumer Confidence fell from previous 117.8 to 116.8 in July