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Fed Hammack calls for rate hikes, says policy not restrictive enough

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack crossed the wires on Monday and was hawkish, noting that the current rate is not “meaningfully restricting the economy” and that there is a need for some number of rate hikes.

출처  Fxstreet1786400714
US Treasury yields climb as Oil spike revives CPI jitters

US Treasury yields rose on Monday as traders braced for the release of US inflation figures this week, following a worse-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls report last Friday.

출처  Fxstreet1786400154
China: Cost-driven reflation and narrow profit gains – Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered analysts Carol Liao and Moriarty Lam argue that China’s reflation remains largely cost-driven, with industrial profit recovery concentrated in AI- and oil-related sectors. They highlight that domestic demand continues to lag supply, creating a persistent imbalance.

출처  Fxstreet1786389886
United States: Weak payrolls and softer retail sales – TD Securities

TD Securities notes July payrolls surprised sharply to the downside, with headline jobs dragged by government hiring, while private employment stayed near breakeven.

출처  Fxstreet1786387677
Breaking: Iran won't negotiate with the US until Trump's term is done

In a major setback to efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and cool Middle East tensions, Iran ruled out any future negotiations with United States (US) President Donald Trump. Iranian outlets and a X post by y an adviser to Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.

출처  Fxstreet1786385519
US President Trump says Iran should pay for regional damage

United States (US) President Donald Trump used a post on his Truth Social platform to push back on Iran's demands for war reparations, arguing that Tehran, not Washington, should carry the bill for the damage and lives lost across the region.

출처  Fxstreet1786385184
Emerging Markets: Selectivity key as Fed path clouds – HSBC

HSBC Asset Management notes that Emerging Market local-currency bonds have delivered strong returns over the past four years, supported by credible policies and attractive real yields, but year-to-date performance has softened as US Treasury yields rose and EM-US real rate differentials narrowed.

출처  Fxstreet1786378413
Denmark: Tax cuts keep inflation below the euro area – Nordea

Nordea economist Jan Størup Nielsen notes that Danish inflation eased slightly in July, with headline consumer prices up 1.7% year-over-year and core inflation steady at 2.3%.

출처  Fxstreet1786377240
Eurozone: Resilient data but growth risks weigh on Euro – Rabobank

Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley notes Eurozone Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data surprised to the upside, suggesting resilience despite higher energy prices and supply disruptions.

출처  Fxstreet1786373872
Federal Reserve: Sideways growth and sticky inflation – TD Securities

TD Securities’ US economists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir expect US output growth to move sideways in 2026 as the lingering Oil shock and Iran-related risks keep the Federal Reserve on hold through year-end.

출처  Fxstreet1786372706
Hungarian Forint: Recovery against Euro may resume – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose notes that the Hungarian Forint (HUF) has only partially retraced its post-election gains and is expected to recover if global risk conditions stabilise, with EUR/HUF seen returning towards 350–355 in coming months.

출처  Fxstreet1786369654
Norwegian Krone: Rate hike odds slashed after soft inflation – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that Norwegian Krone (NOK) is trading mixed as firmer Oil offsets the drag from reduced Norges Bank tightening expectations.

출처  Fxstreet1786363681
Federal Reserve: September hike odds reassessed – Rabobank

Rabobank’s Bas van Geffen comments that weaker United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and a drop in labour supply have reduced urgency for another Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike, though policy remains data‑dependent.

출처  Fxstreet1786362351
Copper: Tariff-driven arbitrage reshapes COMEX-LME spread – Societe Generale

Societe Generale analysts Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem argue that Copper has shifted into a policy-driven trade as Section 232 tariffs reshape the COMEX-LME arbitrage.

출처  Fxstreet1786361843
Norwegian Krone: Policy hold guidance in focus – Nomura

Nomura’s Josie Anderson, George Buckley and Andrzej Szczepaniak expect Norges Bank to keep its policy rate at 4.25% at the August meeting, citing softer underlying inflation and benign domestic data.

출처  Fxstreet1786356417
CEE FX: Data-heavy week under global pressure – ING

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky highlights a busy Central and Eastern Europe calendar with Czech inflation, Turkey’s inflation report and key Polish data, including GDP and core inflation.

출처  Fxstreet1786355646
Australian Dollar: Hawkish RBA hold supports carry – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad notes that the Australian Dollar (AUD) remains one of the most attractive G10 currencies thanks to favorable carry and a hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

출처  Fxstreet1786354551
미국 7월 CPI 전망: 인플레이션 추가 둔화 가능성에 증시, 달러, 금 주요 변동성 대비

TradingKey - 미국 노동통계국은 미 동부시간 기준 8월 12일 오전 8시 30분에 7월 소비자물가지수(CPI)를 발표할 예정이다. 7월 비농업 부문 고용이 예상외로 2만 3,000명 감소하고 9월 연방준비제도(Fed·연준)의 금리 인상에 대한 시장의 기대감이 크게 축소된 데 따라, 이번 CPI 발표는 연준의 향후 정책 방향을 결정하는 핵심 지표가

출처  Tradingkey1786354481
Brent: Iran talks keep risk premium in focus – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank strategists highlight that negotiations between Iran and Oman over a new shipping framework through the Strait of Hormuz remain finely balanced, with Tehran linking any lasting arrangement to broader demands on the US.

출처  Fxstreet1786353216
Romanian Leu: Rating relief but NBR stays cautious – ING

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky says Romania’s unchanged Baa3 rating at Moody’s and prior Fitch decision should ease pressure after recent ROMGBs underperformance.

출처  Fxstreet1786352682
Euro advances against Canadian Dollar as Eurozone Investor Confidence rises in August

EUR/CAD inches higher after three days of losses, trading around 1.6120 during the European hours on Monday. The currency cross is holding its ground, driven primarily by a resilient Euro (EUR) following positive Eurozone economic sentiment.

출처  Fxstreet1786352480
Japanese Yen: Intervention faces persistent rate gap – HSBC

HSBC Asset Management reviews recent coordinated intervention by Japanese and US authorities to support the Japanese Yen, recalling the sharp carry-trade unwind during the previous episode two years ago.

출처  Fxstreet1786351773
Equities gain on Oil and Fed repricing – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank strategists report that falling energy prices helped push the S&P 500 and other major equity indices to record highs last week. The rally was reinforced by a renewed AI (Artificial intelligence) trade, with semiconductor stocks posting particularly strong gains.

출처  Fxstreet1786349046
Swedish Krona: Hormuz reopening could lift SEK against NOK - Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister analyses NOK/SEK through oil-price sensitivity and rate expectations. He finds the Norwegian Krone reacts more strongly to oil than the Swedish Krona, while Riksbank expectations adjust more to oil shocks than Norges Bank.

출처  Fxstreet1786348453
British Pound: Soft GDP could trigger dovish BoE repricing – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad argues that the British Pound (GBP) requires a stronger-than-expected United Kingdom (UK) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) print to gain upside traction.

출처  Fxstreet1786346732
Equities: Falling oil and AI rebound drive record highs - Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank strategists report that falling energy prices and softer Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations helped push the S&P 500 and other major equity indices to new record highs last week.

출처  Fxstreet1786346073
Indian Rupee drops as oil prices extend recovery, downside seems limited

The Indian Rupee (INR) opens on a negative note against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the week. The USD/INR pair rebounds to near 95.22 as oil prices extend their recovery move and the US Dollar regains ground after a weak Friday.

출처  Fxstreet1786339473
Indonesian Rupiah struggles as Consumer Confidence drops to weakest level since September 2025

USD/IDR holds gains after registering over 0.5% losses in the previous trading day, hovering around 17,860 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair continues to trade with an upward bias as the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) faces pressure following the release of domestic Consumer Confidence data.

출처  Fxstreet1786338184
United States Dollar Index advances above 99.50 due to Middle East risks

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is gaining ground after registering modest losses in the previous day and trading around 99.70 during the Asian hours on Monday.

출처  Fxstreet1786333658

Indonesia Consumer Confidence fell from previous 117.8 to 116.8 in July

출처  Fxstreet1786331029
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