National Bank of Canada’s (NBC) Jocelyn Paquet reports Canada’s merchandise trade surplus in goods reached a four-year high of C$3.86 billion in June, beating expectations.

Anna Paulson, President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Philadelphia, said in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday that underlying inflation remains too high and that monetary policy needs to stay mildly restrictive, adding that the current environment likely meets that description.

Standard Chartered analysts Dan Pan and Steve Englander discuss the Federal Reserve’s Financial Conditions Impulse on Growth (FCI-G) index, noting it was highly accommodative in May 2026 and still supportive after the July FOMC.

The number of job openings stood at 7.359 million in June, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday. This print followed the 7.537 million openings reported in May and came in slightly below the market expectation of 7.4 million.

TD Securities’ Australia/NZ macro team sees New Zealand Employment growth at 0.1% q/q in Q2, insufficient to match population gains. They expect the Unemployment Rate to rise to 5.4%, returning to its recent cycle high and aligning with the RBNZ’s May forecast.

Lee Hardman at MUFG highlights that the US Dollar index has fallen back below 100.00 following last week’s FOMC meeting, as the Fed left rates on hold and Chair Kevin Warsh offered less hawkish guidance.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a CNBC interview on Tuesday that a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday. He added that he expects Energy prices to "settle back down".

TD Securities strategists expect US JOLTS job openings to fall to 7.0 million in June from 7.594 million in May, below the 7.504 million consensus forecast, as the recent increase appears difficult to sustain. They expect the data to move closer to softer private-sector hiring indicators.

TD Securities strategists expect Canada’s International Merchandise Trade surplus to narrow in June as weaker Oil prices weigh on energy exports. They forecast a surplus of $2.5bn versus the market’s $3.0bn and May’s $4.2bn.

DBS economist Radhika Rao expects the RBI MPC to keep the benchmark rate at 5.25% with a neutral stance and cautious guidance.

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur writes that despite South Africa’s reasonable recent performance under pressure from the Iran conflict, the central bank’s July decision to leave its key rate unchanged was surprising.

EUR/CAD remains stronger for the eighth consecutive day, trading around 1.6170 during the European hours on Tuesday. The currency cross is holding its ground as the Euro (EUR) gains support from an uptick in market risk sentiment.

Danske Research Team underscores strong United States (US) cyclical signals, with the ISM manufacturing index rising to 55.6 in July, beating expectations and June’s reading. New orders, employment and production all improved, while prices moderated.

ING strategist Frantisek Taborsky says Central and Eastern European markets opened positively, with rates markets outpricing hikes while FX stayed sidelined.

Rabobank’s Senior Market Strategist Benjamin Picton notes Brent futures fell over 7% and Singapore gasoil nearly 11%, despite ongoing geopolitical and logistical disruptions to Oil and refined products.

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, August 4:

Danske Research Team notes that global equities began August with fresh all-time highs in several MSCI indices. Gains were driven by sector rotation, with software rebounding 16% over the past week and lower Oil prices supporting sentiment.

Saudi Aramco CEO Amin H. Nasser said during the European trading session on Tuesday that the ongoing geopolitical crisis continues to aggravate the biggest supply shock in history.

The EUR/USD pair holds steady around 1.1505 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. Markets remain cautious ahead of the crucial US July jobs report, which is due later this week. 

USD/IDR halts its four-day losing streak, trading around 18,090 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency pair is gaining upward momentum as the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) faces persistent pressure.

Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama declined to comment on effectiveness of joint intervention with the US Department of the Treasury, Reuters reported on Tuesday.

Japan Economy Minister Minoru Kiuchi said during the European trading session on Tuesday that the overall impact of the increase in the cost of goods has not yet been passed.

Australia ANZ Job Advertisements rose from previous -0.2% to 0.8% in June

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh is reportedly weighing whether the US central bank should hold fewer policy meetings each year, according to the New York Times, citing four people familiar with the matter.

Iranian state television, advisor to the Supreme Leader, General Mohsen Rezaei said that the country will absolutely not allow the opening of a second corridor in the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported on Monday.

United States (US) President Donald Trump said on Monday that Washington is currently holding talks with Iran, adding that the discussions are taking place at Tehran's request and describing them as a final opportunity for the Islamic Republic.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang notes USD/SGD slipped to 1.2809 but closed near 1.2821, with intraday bias still pointing lower.

Geoff Yu at BNY sees Brazil and Mexico operating in a more comfortable policy environment after the Fed decision, with anchored United States (US) front-end yields supporting emerging-market duration.

DBS Group Research economist Ma Tieying notes Taiwan’s 2Q GDP growth slowed to 12.9% year-on-year from 14.5% in 1Q, but remained solid on a quarterly basis.

UOB’s Ho Woei Chen notes that Hong Kong’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth slowed to 4.3% year-on-year in 2Q26, with a 0.6% quarterly contraction after a strong start to 2026. Goods exports remain robust, but consumption and investment growth have moderated.