Portugal Global Trade Balance: €-8.705B (May) vs previous €-8.563B

ING’s Francesco Pesole notes the US Dollar (USD) has been broadly unchanged despite renewed Middle East tensions, as Oil has retraced and risk sentiment improved.

According to sources, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may revise up the fiscal 2026 economic growth forecast in the quarterly report due in July. The BoJ is expected to report that it will keep focus on the risk of inflation overshooting the central bank’s target, Reuters reports.

Greece Industrial Production (YoY) increased to 3.9% in May from previous 2.1%

Commerzbank’s Dr. Christoph Balz and Bernd Weidensteiner interpret recent data and Fed communications as pointing to stable policy rates in coming months.

BNY strategist David Tam warns that a renewed rise in rates volatility, as measured by the MOVE Index, could pressure U.S. equities, particularly technology and growth segments. He says investors may need to reduce equity exposure, shorten portfolio equity duration and favor defensive sectors.

Italy Industrial Output w.d.a (YoY) below forecasts (1.3%) in May: Actual (1.1%)

Italy Industrial Output s.a. (MoM) below forecasts (-0.2%) in May: Actual (-0.3%)

Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said during the European trading session on Friday that the specifics of monetary policy to be left to the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur says AI-related capital-goods imports are structurally widening the US trade deficit. Strong foreign demand currently helps finance the gap, but weaker confidence in the United States (US) AI (Artificial intelligence) investment story could create risks for the Dollar.

Austria Industrial Production (YoY) climbed from previous 0.6% to 0.7% in May

Deutsche Bank strategists say a strong semiconductor rally and lower oil prices helped lift global equities. The S&P 500 rebounded as investors rotated from defensive sectors into growth and cyclical stocks, while gains in Micron and SK Hynix reinforced confidence in the AI investment cycle.

France Inflation ex-tobacco (MoM) dipped from previous 0.1% to -0.3% in June

DBS economist Radhika Rao expects India’s June CPI inflation to edge up to 4.1% YoY from 3.9%, driven by food normalisation and fuel-cost pass-through.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose reports that the National Bank of Poland kept rates at 3.75% and a neutral stance, but Governor Adam Glapinski’s press conference was markedly dovish.

The Indian Rupee (INR) extends Thursday’s recovery against the US Dollar (USD) in the opening session on Friday. The USD/INR pair falls further to near 95.22 as the US Dollar weakens as the restart of the war in the Middle East between the United States (US) and Iran won’t be prolonged.

Gold prices fell in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

Netherlands, The Manufacturing Output (MoM) dipped from previous 1.4% to 0.1% in May

The AUD/USD pair attracts some buyers to near 0.6950 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) on hawkish rhetoric from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Friday that the government will closely tracking economic indicator and market conditions.

Japan's Economy Minister Minoru Kiuchi said on Friday that the government consistently signals policy commitment to fiscal sustainability. Kiuchi added that there’s no shift in government stance, and monetary policy tools remain the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) decision. 

Japan Producer Price Index (YoY) came in at 7.1%, above expectations (6.8%) in June

Japan Producer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.4% above expectations (0.3%) in June

A US official signaled that it is still committed to the memorandum of understanding with Iran, even though US President Donald Trump’s declared earlier this week that the framework deal to end the Iran war was “over” after Tehran carried out strikes against vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and again

OCBC’s Christopher Wong observes that Renminbi (RMB) appreciation guidance is waning, with CNH-CNY fixing gaps narrowing and daily adjustments moderating. Policymakers appear to be shifting toward RMB stability rather than further appreciation.

The US Federal Reserve revealed in a statement that the members of the task forces mentioned by the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, at the first monetary policy meeting, who also reiterated the “Fed’s commitment to price stability, and maximum employment mandate in 'unwavering' and will be pursued “with

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang notes that USD/SGD’s mild downward pressure has eased, with the pair expected to stay range-bound. Intraday, the Dollar is seen trading between 1.2920 and 1.2960, while over the next 1–3 weeks UOB projects a broader 1.2890–1.2990 band.

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report the British Pound (GBP) is fractionally higher versus the US Dollar (USD), with sentiment improving after PM Starmer’s resignation announcement.

United States 30-Year Bond Auction climbed from previous 5.02% to 5.058%

Societe Generale strategists note the Korean Won (KRW) has become Asia’s best performer in early H2, rallying nearly 2.8% as USD/KRW drops from around 1,550 to near 1,500.