BNY’s Geoff Yu argues Latin American FX and equities now represent a single crowded ‘total return’ trade, with all regional currencies still overheld while bond holdings begin to reverse unevenly.

Albert Musalem, President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of St. Louis, spoke at the Mississippi Bankers Association on Wednesday. He said that uncertainty around tariffs and war are headwind.

BNY highlights a broad Eurozone PMI downturn, with the composite back in contraction and services particularly weak, while producer prices and input costs re‑accelerate. The bank notes markets assume ECB policy cannot diverge much from peers, a view it challenges.

Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a came in at 57.7, above forecasts (49.9) in April

Citing an unnamed source, Iran's Tasnim News Agency reported that Iran has not yet responded to the United States' latest proposal, which contained some unacceptable provisions.

Commerzbank economists Bernd Weidensteiner and Christoph Balz assess how incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh could reshape U.S. monetary policy and its implications for the Dollar.

United States ADP Employment Change registered at 109K above expectations (99K) in April

"Assuming Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to, which is, perhaps, a big assumption, the already legendary Epic Fury will be at an end, and the highly effective blockade will allow the Hormuz Strait to be open to all, including Iran," United States (US) President Donald Trump said in a post p

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong expect a mixed performance across Asian FX as a fragile US‑Iran ceasefire cools Oil from recent highs but does not deliver a clean de-escalation.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose highlights a sharp rise in Leu volatility after Romania’s government lost a no-confidence vote, leaving Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan as caretaker. The pro‑EU coalition’s collapse clouds prospects for fiscal consolidation and EU funds.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to keep its policy rate at 3.75% for a second consecutive meeting, effectively signalling an end to its 200 bps easing cycle over the past year.

United States MBA Mortgage Applications: -4.4% (May 1) vs previous -1.6%

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest 25 bps hike to 4.35% and a more balanced guidance underpin a constructive Australian Dollar outlook.

According to Axios, the United States and Iran are moving towards a deal to end the conflict.

ING economists Rafal Benecki and Adam Antoniak expect the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to keep policy rates unchanged at 3.75% in coming months, despite higher April Consumer Price Index (CPI) and stronger March activity data.

United Kingdom S&P Global Services PMI above expectations (52) in April: Actual (52.7)

United Kingdom S&P Global Composite PMI registered at 52.6 above expectations (52) in April

Italy Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) above forecasts (-0.4%) in March: Actual (0.8%)

Italy Retail Sales n.s.a (YoY) up to 3.7% in March from previous 1.6%

DBS Group Research’s Philip Wee argues that the USD Index (DXY) is at an inflection point, consolidating in a 98–99 range after retracing its post-Operation Epic Fury rally.

Developments in the Middle East conflict are likely to remain at the forefront this week, but investors will also keep an eye on a string of US labour market figures.

Spain HCOB Services PMI came in at 47.9 below forecasts (52) in April

Societe Generale strategists observe that EUR/PLN has recently rebounded after defending an ascending trend line from February 2025 near 4.2100. The pair continues to oscillate around the 200-DMA, lacking clear direction.

Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke expects Norges Bank to keep rates at 4.0% but maintain a distinctly hawkish tone compared with the Riksbank. With Norwegian inflation above target, the bank projects one or two hikes by year-end and may act in June if Iran-related risks persist.

France Industrial Output (MoM) came in at 1%, above forecasts (0.5%) in March

-Danske Research Team highlights a strong rebound in global equities, led by US technology and semiconductor names, with Intel, Qualcomm and Micron up double digits. Asian markets, including Korea and Shenzhen, also rallied, while European equities lagged due to sector composition.

Russia S&P Global Services PMI increased to 49.7 in April from previous 49.5

India HSBC Services PMI rose from previous 57.9 to 58 in April

India HSBC Composite PMI down to 58.2 in April from previous 58.3

India HSBC Services PMI climbed from previous 57.9 to 58.8 in April