TD Securities strategists Robert Both and Emma Lawrence highlight that Canadian rates are opening weaker, with yields tracking US moves and geopolitical tensions. They expect CAD employment to show only a modest rebound and see imported volatility dominating.

United States ISM Services New Orders Index rose from previous 58.6 to 60.6 in March

United States ISM Services PMI below forecasts (55) in March: Actual (54)

United States ISM Services Prices Paid: 70.7 (March) vs 63

United States ISM Services Employment Index: 45.2 (March) vs previous 51.8

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong argue that market hopes for de-escalation in the US–Iran conflict look premature for Brent.

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lloyd Chan highlights that Asia is highly exposed to potential energy flow disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. An extended energy shock would raise inflation, worsen current accounts and hurt growth, leaving KRW, PHP and THB vulnerable.

TD Securities analysts expect US ISM Services to soften in March as geopolitical uncertainty from Iran weighs on sentiment. They forecast the index to fall to 54.2, reversing February’s gain, with most components slowing and employment slipping back into contraction.

Commerzbank’s Dr. Henry Hao and Moses Lim note that Indonesia March CPI slowed to 3.5% year-on-year, back within Bank Indonesia’s (BI) target range, but warns that Middle East conflict and higher freight costs pose upside inflation risks.

The United States (US) Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for March is scheduled to be published today at 14:00 GMT.

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that higher Oil prices and safe-haven flows have re-anchored the Dollar, reversing expectations for a steady USD decline.

Iran has confirmed that it has received the proposal of a ceasefire by the United States (US) through Pakistan and has stated that it is being reviewed, according to a Senior Iranian official, Reuters reports.

Societe Generale economists see the Euro area entering the latest energy shock with improved resilience and reduced Oil and gas intensity.

According to a Reuters report, a source aware of ceasefire proposals between the United States (US) and Iran has stated that both nations are discussing a two-tier deal that involves plans to end hostilities by Monday, followed by the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran dropping its nuclear a

Here is what you need to know on Monday, April 6:

EUR/CAD moves little for the second consecutive trading day, trading around 1.6070 during the early European hours on Monday.

Spain Unemployment Change below expectations (10.3K) in March: Actual (-22.9K)

Philip Wee at DBS Group Research argues that USD/JPY looks overextended as it tests Japan’s 160 pain threshold. The pair is supported by the US-Japan rate differential, but markets now price a roughly two-thirds chance of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike on April 28.

BNY’s Bob Savage flags unpleasant preliminary March inflation in Europe, driven by energy and refined products, with diesel prices above 2022 levels. Governments are capping fuel costs via tax and margin measures, raising fiscal credibility questions.

Singapore Retail Sales (MoM) increased to 57.5% in February from previous 6.1%

Singapore Retail Sales (MoM): -4.1% (February) vs previous 6.1%

India HSBC Services PMI above expectations (57.4) in March: Actual (57.5)

India HSBC Composite PMI came in at 57, above expectations (56.5) in March

Singapore Retail Sales (YoY) increased to 8.3% in February from previous -0.4%

Singapore Retail Sales (MoM) dipped from previous 6.1% to -4.1% in February

The United States (US), Iran and regional mediators are discussing terms for a possible 45-day ceasefire that could lead to an end of fighting, Bloomberg reported on Monday, citing Axios. The people, who were not named, said chances of reaching a deal over the next 48 hours are low.

Asian equity markets opened mixed at the start of a new week as traders remain on edge amid the risk of a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East.

United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions down to $163.2K from previous $168.3K

United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions up to £-52.7K from previous £-58.4K

United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions fell from previous 233.6K to 213.5K