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RBA’s Hauser: Focused on preventing rise in inflation expectations

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser, speaking in a fireside chat earlier this Tuesday, warned that Australia is facing a difficult macroeconomic backdrop.

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Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence down to -12.5% in April from previous 1.2%

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Singapore Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at -0.3%, above expectations (-0.5%) in 1Q

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Singapore Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 4.6% below forecasts (5.4%) in 1Q

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USD/SGD: MAS tightening and key levels – OCBC

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to tighten policy on 14 April 2026 by increasing the Singapore Dollar (SGD) Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (S$NEER) slope to counter imported inflation.

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China: Innovation-led sectors stay in focus – HSBC

HSBC Asset Management underlines that China’s technology sector remains a key equity theme despite shifting attention to Middle East tensions. The firm points to strong performance of the Shenzhen Chinext index, supported by advanced manufacturing, green energy and semiconductors.

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Asia FX: Softer start on Oil and risk – OCBC

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong expect Asian FX, especially high-beta Oil importers like KRW, THB, PHP and INR, to open weaker as renewed geopolitical uncertainty supports crude and the Dollar. However, resumed Hormuz transit tempers tail risks.

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SGD: MAS seen normalizing NEER policy band – DBS

DBS Group Research economist Philip Wee expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to reverse its earlier easing by normalizing the SGD Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) policy band.

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Renminbi: Limited Petroyuan prospects in energy trade – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen examines Iran’s proposal to charge Strait of Hormuz tolls in Renminbi and finds it unlikely to trigger a major Petroyuan shift.

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Colombia: Runoff risks and market caution – Societe Generale

Societe Generale’s Dev Ashish reviews Colombian presidential election dynamics ahead of the May 31, 2026 vote, noting that polls suggest a runoff where a unified right has an advantage over the Historic Pact candidate.

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Denmark: Spending resilience with higher energy costs – Danske Bank

Danske Bank’s Louise Aggerstrøm Hansen and Asger Wilhelm Dalsjö report that Danish private consumption strengthened in March, with real spending excluding energy up 1.2% month-on-month and 3.8% year-on-year.

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Trump says Iran wants deal as Hormuz blockade officially begins

The US President Donald Trump spoke on a press conference at the Oval Office and praised the Vice-President JD Vance work on Iran as he said that he “has done a very good job on Iran.”

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Germany: Recovery delayed by energy shock – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank economists say Germany’s recovery is being pushed back by higher energy costs and uncertainty linked to the Middle East conflict. They cut their 2026 growth forecast to 1.0% while keeping 2027 at 1.5%. Inflation is projected to average 2.7% this year.

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Euro area: Activity soft but risks stabilizing – Societe Generale

Societe Generale economists highlight that Euro area activity data in Q1 have been somewhat disappointing, especially German industry, but they see limited upside risk to their cautious 0.1% qoq German GDP forecast.

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ECB: Higher inflation and more rate hikes – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank economists note the European Central Bank (ECB) kept rates unchanged in March but now expects two 25 bp hikes in June and September, already fully priced by markets. The deposit rate sits at 2.0%, seen as neutral.

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Hungary: Policy reset and euro path – ING

ING economists Peter Virovacz and Frantisek Taborsky say Hungary’s new Tisza-led supermajority reduces short-term policy uncertainty and raises expectations for institutional repair, EU relations and fiscal credibility.

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United States Existing Home Sales (MoM) below forecasts (4.06M) in March: Actual (3.98M)

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United States Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) down to -3.6% in March from previous 1.7%

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USD: Oil-linked scenarios shape Dollar outlook – HSBC

HSBC's report on G8 currencies argues that Middle East geopolitics and Oil remain the dominant drivers for the Dollar and major FX. The bank highlights a recently strengthened USD–Oil correlation driven by supply shock and safe-haven flows.

Global outlook: IMF set to cut growth forecasts – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad points to upcoming IMF publications as key for assessing global risks.

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HUF: Political shift boosts forint and EU ties – MUFG

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lee Hardman reports that Hungary’s election ended Viktor Orban’s 16-year rule, with Peter Magyar’s Tisza party on course for a supermajority. Planned institutional and constitutional changes could restore EU norms and unlock over EUR20 billion in frozen EU funds.

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Russia Foreign Trade fell from previous $6.597B to $5.353B in February

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BoE: Seen on hold as data soften – Societe Generale

Societe Generale analysts note a quiet week for the UK, with the March RICS housing survey pointing to weaker demand as higher energy costs and mortgage rates weigh on confidence.

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Canada Building Permits (MoM) registered at -8.4%, below expectations (-0.5%) in February

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EUR/USD: Safe haven Dollar holds gains – Rabobank

Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley notes that the US Dollar (USD) has benefited from renewed safe haven demand and reduced Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut expectations, with EUR/USD currently testing below 1.17.

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Fed: On hold as energy shock lifts inflation – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank economists report the Federal Reserve (Fed) left rates at 3.50%-3.75% in March and still expects a 25 bp cut in September. Markets price only modest easing. They warn a prolonged Strait of Hormuz blockade could push Brent toward USD 120.

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Canada: Carney majority prospects and fiscal outlook – TD Securities

TD Securities strategists discuss Canadian by-elections in three federal ridings and notes that Prime Minister Carney’s Liberals are close to securing a majority in Parliament.

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NOK: Rate path stays uncertain – Danske Bank

Danske Research notes that Norway’s March core inflation remained at 3.0% year-on-year, slightly below consensus and in line with Norges Bank’s projection, while headline inflation printed at 3.6% year-on-year.

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EUR/USD: Hungarian politics offer near-term support – ING

ING’s Chris Turner writes that EUR/USD was pressured in Asia by higher Oil after failed peace talks, but notes the pair is holding above 1.1600.

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ECB: Earlier hikes as core risks rise – Societe Generale

Societe Generale economists Anatoli Annenkov, Michel Martinez, Fabien Bossy and Sam Cartwright argue that upside risks to Euro area core inflation justify bringing forward European Central Bank rate hikes.

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