Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi warns of serious consequences, in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, that the United States (US) and Israel would face serious consequences if there any military action across all fronts, including Lebanon.

MUFG’s Halpenny argues that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is likely to hike 25 bps on 16 June, with markets pricing around an 80% chance.

India Industrial Output came in at 4.9%, above forecasts (3.9%) in April

India Manufacturing Output climbed from previous 4.3% to 6.2% in April

TD Securities analysts report that Canada’s Q1 GDP and March output surprised sharply to the downside, confirming a technical recession and dampening expectations for 2026 rate hikes.

Societe Generale analysts note recent relief for the Indian Rupee after aggressive RBI intervention to keep it below 95.00. Focus is on Friday’s policy decision, with a 25 bp hike seen as possible given regional tightening.

Deutsche Bank analysts highlight that Brent Oil has seen sharp moves as markets react to prospects for a US-Iran deal. Brent crude fell 19.3% in May, its biggest drop since March 2020, and declined 11.1% last week as ceasefire hopes grew.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose highlights that a downside surprise in Poland’s May flash Consumer Price Index (CPI) contrasts with earlier Czech inflation acceleration that had pointed to Czech National Bank (CNB) tightening on 18 June.

Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has stated through a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, that the United States (US) naval blockade on Iranian sea ports and Israeli attacks on Lebanon could have severe consequences.

BNP Paribas expects UK economic growth to slow to 0.7% in 2026 from 1.4% in 2025, with quarterly momentum dropping to about 0.1%. Inflation is projected to rise to 3.4% before easing only gradually, keeping it above the BoE target.

EUR/CAD extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around 1.6110 during the European hours on Monday. The currency cross remains stronger following the release of German Retail Sales data, which fell 0.3% month-on-month (MoM), while it was expected to have declined 0.4%.

The latest survey by the European Central Bank (ECB) of consumer inflation expectations shows that one-year forward inflation projections remain steady at 4%.

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said in the European session on Monday that ‘aggressive action' by the United States (US) is a ceasefire violation, and it led Iranian armed forces to target positions from which US attacks originated.

United Kingdom S&P Global Manufacturing PMI up to 53.9 in May from previous 53.7

Eurozone Private Loans (YoY) meets forecasts (3%) in April

Rabobank's Senior US Strategist Philip Marey updates his United States (US) and Federal Reserve (Fed) outlook, highlighting a shift by the FOMC away from an easing bias ahead of Warsh’s first meeting. Marey notes that developments in the Middle East are likely to keep energy prices elevated.

Austria Unemployment: 301.7K (May) vs previous 320.3K

Austria Unemployment Rate declined to 7.1% in May from previous 7.5%

Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (53.7) in May: Actual (51.2)

Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at 0.7%, above forecasts (0.5%) in 1Q

Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (YoY) fell from previous 0.7% to 0.5% in 1Q

Australia RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) up to 16.8% in May from previous 15.7%

Sweden Manufacturing PMI increased to 57.3 in May from previous 57.2

Switzerland Real Retail Sales (YoY) above forecasts (0.2%) in April: Actual (1.6%)

The EUR/GBP cross trades in negative territory near 0.8655 during the early European trading hours on Monday. The Euro (EUR) remains weak against the British Pound (GBP) following the upbeat German Retail Sales data.

Danske Research Team notes that EUR/USD ended last week around 1.1650 after a sharp drop in Oil prices, with US and Euro area yields both moving lower. They highlight upcoming United States (US) ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), labor data and the Euro area HICP as key drivers.

German Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, declined again in April. The consumer spending measure dropped 0.3% month-on-month (MoM), according to official data released by Destatis, while it was expected to have declined 0.4%. In March, Retail Sales fell by 0.3% (revised from 2.0%)

United Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices s.a (MoM) registered at -0.6%, below expectations (-0.2%) in May

United Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY): 1.7% (May) vs previous 3%

Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose from previous 48.1 to 48.8 in May