The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) stated that it reached a revenue-sharing agreement with Oman on the Strait of Hormuz, as Tehran and Washington’s standoff over control of the crucial waterway continues, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday.

Gold price (XAU/USD) falls to near $4,610 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The precious metal retreats from a three-month high as US inflation data came largely in line with expectations, increasing expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest-rate hike next month. 

Chris Turner at ING notes USD/CNH is consolidating after last week’s sharp decline, as investors hesitate to buy Renminbi with the PBoC slowing lower USD/CNY fixings and US–Iran sanctions risks in focus.

On Wednesday, the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) releases its Quarterly Report for Q2 2026, in which the institution revises its forecasts for economic growth and inflation.

Geoff Yu at BNY highlights that EM EMEA equities have outperformed, with strong buying in Poland, South Africa and Turkey since before the July Fed meeting, despite weaker regional currencies and bonds.

Commerzbank’s Dr. Henry Hao and Charlie Lay highlight that Taiwan’s booming AI-driven exports and strong external surplus create a fundamentally supportive backdrop for the Taiwan Dollar (TWD).

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report USD/CNH slipped to 6.7166 and closed slightly lower, with short-term downside momentum gradually building.

Prashant Newnaha at TD Securities notes that the RBA’s August minutes were overall less hawkish than June, but still emphasized upside inflation risks and the possibility of preemptive tightening.

ABN AMRO’s Georgette Boele highlights that EUR/PLN has risen as interest rate expectations diverge between the Eurozone and Poland.

Commerzbank’s Dr. Henry Hao and Charlie Lay underscore that Taiwan’s industrial production and exports are surging on AI and high-performance computing demand. July manufacturing output and export orders point to Q3 GDP growth around 12–12.5% year-on-year, after 12.9% in Q2.

TD Securities’ Robert Both analyzes the impact of new Section 338 US tariffs and Canada’s retaliation on the Canadian economy. The report estimates the combined measures will trim about 0.3 percentage points from GDP by 2027, with growth effects concentrated in late 2026.

Deutsche Bank expects Germany’s stronger-than-expected H1 2026 GDP performance to lift annual growth closer to 1% from the previous 0.5% forecast. Near-term transport headwinds should remain contained as Rhine water levels recover, although Q3 growth could temporarily stall.

TradingKey - 7월 미국 근원 인플레이션은 시장 예상치에 부합했으나, 헤드라인 PCE 상승률은 전망치를 소폭 상회했다. 이는 정체된 실질 소비 지출과 맞물려 연방준비제도의 향후 정책 선택에 더 큰 불확실성을 부여한다.8월 26일 미국 경제분석국(BEA)이 발표한 데이터에 따르면, 7월 근원 개인소비지출(PCE) 가격지수는 전월 대비 0.2% 상승해

Kevin Warsh is preparing to deliver his first Jackson Hole speech as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair on Friday, and expectations extend well beyond whether interest rates will be raised or left unchanged in September.

Commerzbank FX analyst Michael Pfister argues that the Swiss Franc (CHF) will stay under pressure through 2026 as markets gradually price out expectations of a Swiss National Bank (SNB) rate hike.

ING’s Chris Turner notes that lower Oil prices and the recent intervention by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have pushed long-end US yields 10–15bp lower, reducing FX and equities volatility.

TD Securities’ Prashant Newnaha highlights that Australia’s July Consumer Price Index (CPI delivered a strong inflation impulse, with headline and trimmed mean measures beating consensus and remaining uncomfortably high.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note AUD/USD extended its consolidation slightly higher, closing at 0.7165 as short-term momentum improves.

ING’s Chris Turner reports that the National Bank of Hungary cut its policy rate by 25bp to 5.50%, with Chief Economist Peter Virovacz seeing a 4.75% terminal rate.

EUR/CAD extends its gains for the third successive day, trading around 1.6180 during the European hours on Wednesday. The currency cross gains ground as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) faces headwinds due to falling crude oil prices.

Chris Turner at ING highlights that Eurozone data continue to surprise positively and ECB’s Isabel Schnabel now sees growth risks possibly to the upside.

The United States (US) Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is expected to publish the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for July on Wednesday, at 12:30 GMT. 

Deutsche Bank’s Early Morning Reid team, including Peter Sidorov and Jim Reid, note that Brent Oil has reversed more than half of its recent 13% rally as Middle East de-escalation headlines weigh on energy markets.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose reports that Hungary’s central bank, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB), cut its base rate to 5.50% but avoided pre-committing to further easing, stressing that September’s Inflation Report will guide policy. The bank will monitor global rate hikes, could limit the scope.

According to sources, the European Central Bank (ECB) is all set to hike its key policy rates at the September policy meeting, RTE reported. Sources also said that the central bank has no appetite to raise interest rates again after a hike next month.

Deutsche Bank notes that Nvidia’s earnings have become a major macro catalyst, although the impact of positive surprises has faded in recent quarters.

Volkmar Baur at Commerzbank notes that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is in wait-and-see mode after three rate hikes, assessing how inflation and the labor market evolve. July Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased to 3.5% but missed expectations, with trimmed-mean inflation stuck at 3.6%.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report EUR/USD broke out of its recent tight range, closing slightly higher near 1.1675 as tentative upside momentum emerges.

European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said that inflation is unlikely to return to target over the medium term, and therefore further tightening will be necessary, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday. 

Asian stock markets reflect broader strength on Wednesday, as oil prices have fallen further on renewed hopes of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for almost 20% of global energy supply, reopening.