Deutsche Bank Research, led by Sanjay Raja and Maui Brennan, highlights the United Kingdom (UK) economy’s surprising resilience to the Iran-related energy shock in 2026. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 0.6% q-o-q in Q1 and 0.4% in Q2, making the UK the fastest-growing G7 economy.

The Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that “It would be better to end the war today, when we have power and dignity, and with the whole world acknowledging our victory,” according to a Bloomberg article.

TD Securities’ Robert Both expects the Bank of Canada to remain cautious even if a tariff agreement is reached. The Bank wants more data on how lower tariffs affect exports and output, with key trade figures not available until November.

Rabobank's Bas van Geffen, analyses how forthcoming structural Longer-term Refinancing Operations (LTROs) could complement the European Central Bank's (ECB) standard refinancing operations as excess liquidity declines.

Nomura’s European Economics team highlights that UK composite output PMI rose to 52.5 in August, with services offsetting weaker manufacturing. GfK consumer confidence improved to its highest level in two years, supporting activity.

Royal Bank of Canada economists Nathan Janzen and Abbey Xu expect Canadian gross domestic product data for June and Q2 to confirm a strong rebound after winter stagnation.

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret point out that Japan’s July Consumer Price Index (CPI) and stronger August Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data support expectations for Bank of Japan (BoJ) tightening, with about 20 bps of hikes priced in swaps.

Commerzbank’s Barbara Lambrecht says tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and tight diesel inventories continue to support Brent. With prices near USD 94 and almost 20% above their early-August lows, Brent remains well below its April peak.

Standard Chartered’s Aldian Taloputra assesses Indonesia’s 2027 fiscal plans, noting a targeted deficit of 2.4% of GDP versus 2.9% in 2026. The bank maintains its own forecast of a 2.9%-of-GDP deficit, citing ambitious revenue assumptions and potential tax shortfalls.

Nomura strategists see greater fiscal vulnerabilities in the United Kingdom (UK) than in the Euro area. Strong foreign inflows into Euro area bonds and comparatively better debt dynamics support its view that Euro (EUR) should outperform British Pound (GBP), US Dollar (USD) and Japanese Yen (JPY).

Deutsche Bank strategists highlight a sharp improvement in sentiment towards Prime Minister Burnham and Labour.

S&P Global will release the preliminary figures of August’s United States Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs), a report collecting top private sector executives' opinions about business conditions, to provide an early indication of momentum in the world’s largest economy.

Rabobank's Senior US Strategist Philip Marey discusses United States (US) Treasuries, noting that the Treasury Department’s surprise move to boost buybacks of longer-term bonds has only briefly interrupted rising yields.

Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke reports that the Riksbank left its policy rate at 1.75% and maintained a restrictive stance, still seeing a hike later this year as likely.

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Mārtiņš Kazāks said during the European trading session on Friday that the central bank won’t hesitate to act if needed to bring Eurozone inflationary pressures down to the 2% target.

BNY’s David Tam stresses that while the Federal Reserve retains legal capacity to support corporate credit, the current Warsh Fed is unlikely to repeat Covid‑era interventions.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose highlights growing challenges for Polish policymakers, citing stretched fiscal plans and accelerating underlying inflation.

The United Kingdom (UK) S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) surprisingly expanded at a faster pace to 52.5 in August due to robust service sector activity.

EUR/CAD extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around 1.6100 during the European hours on Friday. The currency cross depreciates as the Euro (EUR) holds losses following the release of HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from Germany.

German flash HCOB Composite PMI rises at a moderate pace to 51.0 in August amid a slowdown in the services sector. The Composite PMI was expected to remain steady at 51.3.

Deutsche Bank strategists note that United States (US) equities fell sharply as earlier gains in fixed income reversed, with losses across the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Magnificent Seven. Weak Walmart earnings and slower US sales growth added to concerns about consumer resilience.

Asian share indices hold gains on Friday, though they remain on track for weekly losses as pressure on global bond yields eases. US Treasury yields resumed their upward trajectory following a brief reprieve triggered by Wednesday’s unexpected Treasury intervention.

Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, in the United Kingdom (UK) declined 0.5% month-over-month (MoM) in July after rising by 0.7% in June (revised from 1.0%), the latest data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Friday.

The Indian Rupee (INR) edges down against the US Dollar (USD) in the opening session on Friday. The USD/INR ticks up to near 95.72 as elevated oil prices and a sharp recovery in United States (US) Treasury Yields have weighed on the Indian currency.

The preliminary reading of India’s HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) declined to 52.9 in August versus 53.5 prior, the latest data published by S&P Global and HSBC Bank showed on Friday. 

USD/IDR extends its losses for the third successive day, trading around 17,760 during the Asian hours on Friday. The currency pair continues to depreciate as the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) maintains its strength, defying a sharp widening of Indonesia’s current account deficit.

Netherlands, The Consumer Confidence Adj: -34 (August) vs -35

The GBP/USD pair gathers strength near 1.3645 during the early Asian trading hours on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) softens against the British Pound (GBP) amid fading Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike expectations.

Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI meets expectations (55.1) in August

Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI increased to 52.3 in August from previous 51.2