TD Securities strategists expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) to hold its policy rate at 2.25% through 2026 before returning to a 2.75% neutral level in 2027 via 25 bp hikes in January and March.

United States Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) increased to 0.2% in April from previous -3.6%

United States Existing Home Sales (MoM) registered at 4.02M, below expectations (4.05M) in April

BNP Paribas economists expect United Kingdom (UK) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to slow to 0.7% in 2026 from 1.4% in 2025, with quarterly expansion dropping to about 0.1%. Inflation is projected to re-accelerate to 3.6% before easing only slightly.

TD Securities economists expect US inflation data to firm in April, with core Consumer Price Index (CPI) boosted by shelter and airfare components and headline CPI lifted by higher Oil and food prices.

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky says Central and Eastern European (CEE) FX is benefiting from positive global sentiment, with EUR/HUF breaking to new lows below 355. Markets expect Hungary’s new Prime Minister Peter Magyar to unlock EU funds and advance Euro adoption.

HSBC reports that the Norwegian Krone (NOK) has gained alongside other risk-on currencies versus the Dollar, supported by improved sentiment and domestic policy.

Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux notes Brent is up 4%, trading near $105.2, after carving out an interim low around $96 and repeatedly defending its 50-day moving average.

ING’s Chris Turner notes Sterling is softening after UK local elections, as Labour’s losses fuel talk of a leadership contest and a leftward policy shift. He highlights the risk of developments around Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham re-entering parliament.

Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said during the European trading session on Monday that the proposal to the United States (US) was not “excessive”, and Washington continues to have “unreasonable demands”.

Greece Industrial Production (YoY) rose from previous 1.8% to 8.3% in March

Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Megan Greene said during the European trading session on Monday that the central bank needs to wait to see how Middle East conflicts will flare before making any monetary policy adjustments.

EUR/CAD inches lower after three days of gains, trading around 1.6090 during the Asian hours on Monday. The currency cross struggles as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) gains ground amid higher oil prices, given Canada’s status as the largest crude exporter to the United States (US).

UOB’s Alvin Liew expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep policy on hold for an extended period in 2026, with only one 25-basis-point cut pencilled in for 4Q26. The shift from earlier expectations of two cuts reflects persistent inflation pressures and delayed labour weakness.

Commerzbank notes that India’s April PMIs (Purchasing Managers' Index) show resilient activity in both manufacturing and services despite global uncertainty and higher input costs. External demand remains firm for goods, while domestic demand drives services.

The USD/JPY pair gains ground to around 157.15 during the early European session on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) edges higher against the Euro (EUR) as ongoing concerns over the Middle East conflict boost safe-haven flows. 

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) launched a multi-pronged strategy on Monday to stabilize domestic markets and elevate the Chinese Yuan's global standing. 

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Martin Kocher said that there’s no need to delay the interest rate hikes if energy prices don’t improve swiftly.

The AUD/JPY cross posts modest gains near 113.60 during the early European trading hours on Monday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges higher against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on a hawkish tone from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

The European Central Bank (ECB) outgoing Vice President Luis de Guindos said that the central bank needs to be prudent when deciding on an expected interest rate hike next month as growth was set to weaken, the Financial Times reported on Monday.

Indonesia Consumer Confidence up to 123 in April from previous 122.9

China Consumer Price Index (MoM) above expectations (-0.1%) in April: Actual (0.3%)

China Consumer Price Index (YoY) above expectations (0.8%) in April: Actual (1.2%)

China Producer Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.8%, above expectations (1.5%) in April

Gold price (XAU/USD) falls to around $4,690 during the early Asian session on Monday. The precious metal attracts some sellers after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest peace offer to end the 10-week conflict choking the Strait of Hormuz, fanning inflation fears. 

The National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) will publish its data for April at 01.30 GMT. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show an increase of 0.8% YoY in April, compared to 1.0% in March.

China Exports (YoY) CNY climbed from previous -0.7% to 9.8% in April

China Trade Balance USD registered at $84.82B above expectations ($83.3B) in April

China Exports (YoY) came in at 14.1%, above expectations (7.9%) in April

China Imports (YoY) above expectations (15.2%) in April: Actual (25.3%)