Commerzbank reports that South Korea’s advance Q2 GDP rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and 3.7% year-on-year, beating expectations. Robust AI-related semiconductor demand and resilient domestic spending underpin growth. The strong data support prospects of a further 25bp Bank of Korea hike in August.

The upcoming week will be dominated by monetary policy decisions from the Federal Reserve (Fed), Bank of England (BoE) and Bank of Japan (BoJ).

TradingKey - 중국의 AI 거대언어모델들이 다시 한번 글로벌 시장의 주목을 받고 있다.최근 중국 AI 개발사 문샷 AI(Moonshot AI)는 차세대 거대 모델 '키미 K3(Kimi K3)'를 공식 출시했다. 오픈웨이트(가중치 개방형) 아키텍처와 글로벌 선도 모델에 육박하는 성능, 한층 경쟁력 있는 추론 비용을 갖춘 키미 K3는 해외 기술 업계와

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that the Thai Baht (THB) is trading near its weakest level in more than a year against the US Dollar (USD), as volatile oil prices, a firmer USD and higher US yields weigh on the currency.

UOB Global Economics & Markets Research notes that Bank Indonesia kept its policy rate at 5.75%, opting to let earlier tightening filter through.

MUFG’s Lloyd Chan expects MAS to keep policy unchanged at the July meeting while maintaining a tightening bias, distinguishing between energy-driven and domestically generated inflation. Strong Singapore growth and a positive output gap justify tight settings.

Commerzbank’s Marco Stoeckle argues that the AI trade is at a crossroads, with ‘Mag 7’ euphoria fading and hyperscalers facing cash flow and leverage concerns. In contrast, semiconductor and memory stocks, tracked by SOX and KOSPI, saw hyperbolic gains before sharp drawdowns.

Pakistan and Iran are exploring a possible path toward renewed negotiations with the United States (US) as part of a new diplomatic initiative supported by China, Reuters reported, citing several sources familiar with the discussions.

Lloyd Chan at MUFG highlights that Singapore’s June inflation data stayed benign, with modest upticks in headline and core CPI. MAS is expected to keep policy unchanged in July but retain a tightening bias.

Rabobank’s Stefan Koopman expects the Bank of England (BoE) to keep Bank Rate at 3.75% on 30 July and unchanged through 2026, even as markets still price some chance of further tightening.

TD Securities reports that Canadian Retail Sales rose 1.0% month-on-month in May, matching consensus but slightly below its forecast. Gains were broad-based, led by gasoline stations, autos, general merchandise and sporting goods.

Commerzbank analysts highlight that ECB President Lagarde has opened the door to a September rate hike, with sources suggesting euro area inflation must improve markedly to avoid tightening.

Rabobank's Senior Macro Strategist Stefan Koopman notes UK headline CPI fell to 2.6% in June, below the MPC’s forecast, with broad-based downside surprises and easing domestic pressures.

The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to keep its interest rate unchanged at 3.75% at its July 30 monetary policy meeting, according to a Reuters poll of 70 economists. None of the respondents expects a change in interest rates at next week's meeting.

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky reports that surging Oil and gas prices triggered a sharp hawkish repricing of policy paths in Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary, taking implied tightening back to stressed March–April peaks.

The Euro (EUR) trades slightly higher to near 1.1385 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday. The major currency pair edges up as the US Dollar corrects marginally after a strong upside move the previous day.

Commerzbank’s Bernd Weidensteiner expects the Federal Reserve to leave the policy rate at 3.50%–3.75% at the upcoming meeting, while debating potential hikes if inflation fails to ease.

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and head of Lithuania's central bank, Gediminas Simkus, said during European trading hours on Friday that the chances of an interest rate hike in the near term are higher than maintaining the status quo.

S&P Global will release the July flash Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs) for the United States (US) on Friday. These surveys of top private-sector executives are seen as an early indicator of the country’s economic health.

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According to preliminary data, the United Kingdom (UK) S&P Global Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) arrives above 50.0 in July, a figure that separates expansion from contraction, after declining in June. The Services PMI lands at 51.8.

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur says the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) decision to keep its policy rate unchanged at 7% came as a negative surprise, particularly after June inflation rose and Brent crude moved above USD 100 per barrel.

UOB Global Economics & Markets Research highlights that escalating US-Iran tensions and Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping have driven Brent crude above US$100 for the first time since May, with Asia trading near US$101.

German flash HCOB Composite PMI returns to the expansion trajectory in July after declining in June. Preliminary figures show that the overall business activity expanded to 51.2. The Composite PMI was seen arriving at 49.8 from 49.5 in June.

Deutsche Bank strategists highlight that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell sharply as surging Oil prices and stagflation fears weighed on risk assets. Weak post‑earnings reactions in Tesla and Alphabet dragged the Mag 7 index to its biggest daily loss since 2025.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose expects Russia’s central bank to keep its key rate at 14.25%, despite political and economic pressure for a cut. Surging inflation expectations, higher Oil and commodity prices, and accelerating Consumer Price Index (CPI) argue against easing.

GBP/JPY remains calm after six days of losses, trading around 218.20 during the early European hours on Friday. The currency cross holds its ground as the British Pound (GBP) receives support from the release of stronger-than-expected UK Retail Sales data.

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Martin Kocher said on Friday that he doesn’t see any hard evidence of second-round effects, but the central bank will act if the inflation outlook deteriorates. 

USD/IDR depreciates after registering over 0.5% gains in the previous day, trading around 18,020 during the Asian hours on Friday. However, the pair may see upward momentum following Bank Indonesia's (BI) unexpected decision to hold its benchmark interest rate steady at 5.75% in July.

ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Brent has broken above $100/bbl as Middle East tensions escalate and supply risks mount. They highlight threats to flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, as well as disruptions to Kazakh exports.