ING’s James Knightley argues Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech has shifted the Federal Reserve’s reaction function toward a September rate hike, even though ING’s macro projections suggest the Fed could wait.

According to the latest Reuters poll, the 65 economists surveyed have favored that the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise the deposit rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.50%.

Societe Generale strategists note Swiss August Consumer Price Index (CPI) and second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) surprised to the upside, triggering profit-taking in EUR/CHF and USD/CHF but leaving Swiss National Bank (SNB) policy expectations unchanged.

Japan’s top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura reiterates on Thursday that authorities remain ready to act in the foreign exchange market, as Tokyo continues to closely monitor currency moves.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose notes that NBP Governor Adam Glapinski used G20 remarks to shift towards a more neutral, flexible stance, avoiding earlier dovish hints of imminent rate cuts. With August CPI surprising hawkishly and the Zloty underperforming CE3 peers, the bank is seen on the back foot.

On Thursday, we’ll get the latest read on the US service sector when the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) publishes its August gauge. Consensus points to a marginal improvement to 54.3 from July’s 54.1.

Chris Turner at ING notes that a near 1% drop in USD/JPY within minutes, followed by another slide, sparked talk of renewed Japanese intervention after the Bank of Japan’s earlier $96 billion sales.

Commerzbank analysts note that Brent extended its rally and closed above USD95, although gains moderated after President Trump suggested the renewed US bombing campaign against Iran could be short-lived.

GBP/USD gains after two days of losses, trading around 1.3500 during the European hours on Thursday. The currency pair experiences an upward push as a sharp rally in the Japanese Yen (JPY) weighed heavily on the US Dollar (USD).

According to a report from Bloomberg, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is leaning toward raising its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point in the two-day meeting ending on September 18 in response to upward price risks.

ING strategists Francesco Pesole, Frantisek Taborsky and Chris Turner note that a sharp USD/JPY move briefly weighed on the Dollar, but only Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar held gains.

Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid notes that US equities stabilised after three consecutive declines, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.46% as strength in the Magnificent Seven, particularly Nvidia and Meta, supported the market.

TradingKey - 미국 노동통계국이 미 동부시간 기준 9월 4일 오전 8시 30분에 8월 비농업 부문 고용보고서를 발표한다. 잭슨홀 미팅에서 전달된 연준 의장 워시의 매파적 신호와 국제유가 상승에 따른 인플레이션 우려 재점화 여파로, 이번 고용보고서는 9월 FOMC 회의를 앞두고 가장 중요한 거시경제 지표 중 하나가 될 전망이다.8월 비농업 부문 고용

Stock markets in the Asian region demonstrate a mixed performance as investors shift their focus to the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for August, which will be released on Friday.

USD/IDR loses ground for the second successive day, trading around 17,730 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The currency pair experiences downward pressure as a sharp rally in the Japanese Yen (JPY) weighed heavily on the US Dollar (USD).

AUD/JPY extends its losses for the fourth consecutive day, trading around 113.50 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains subdued following a wave of mixed economic data from Australia and China, putting downward pressure on the currency cross.

The NZD/USD pair recovers some lost ground to near 0.5860, snapping the four-day losing streak during the early Asian session on Thursday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) following the upbeat Chinese economic data.

China's Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) climbed to 51.4 in August from 50.4 in July, the latest data published by RatingDog showed on Thursday. This figure came in stronger than the market expectations of 50.6. 

Australia's Trade Balance narrowed to A$1,923M MoM in July, followed a surplus of 1,929M in the previous reading, according to the latest foreign trade data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday. The market consensus was for a surplus of A$1,390M. 

The EUR/USD pair holds steady near 1.1590 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The potential upside for the major pair might be limited amid hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations and escalating conflict in the Middle East.

New Zealand Terms of Trade Index came in at -9% below forecasts (-2.2%) in 2Q

Commerzbank highlights that South Korea’s export boom and a large trade surplus, combined with a hawkish Bank of Korea, are supportive for the Korean Won. They argue that changing FX flow dynamics should allow more of the surplus to translate into KRW strength.

The Federal Reserve released its Beige Book, in which the US central bank revealed that economic activity increased modestly since early July, while overall employment rose slightly. Regarding inflation, prices rose in eight districts.

MUFG’s Lloyd Chan remains cautious on the Indonesian Rupiah as domestic inflation accelerates and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth stays above 5%. The trade balance has improved slightly but remains weaker than 2025 averages due to higher Oil and gas imports.

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that USD/SGD is rebounding alongside a stronger US Dollar (USD), supported by higher US Treasury yields and firmer Fed hike expectations.

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret describe GBP/USD as soft but mid-pack within the G10, with domestic data and Bank of England (BoE) events limited ahead of Governor Bailey’s speech.

Russia Unemployment Rate rose from previous 2.2% to 2.3% in July

TradingKey - 미국 노동통계국은 동부시간 기준 9월 4일 8월 비농업 부문 고용 보고서를 발표할 예정이다. 연방준비제도(Fed·연준)의 9월 정책회의를 앞두고 나오는 마지막 종합 고용 지표인 이번 보고서는 정책 결정자들이 노동 시장이 추가 금리 인상을 견딜 수 있는지, 그리고 인건비가 인플레이션의 새로운 동인이 되고 있는지를 평가하는 데 도움이 될

ING’s Carsten Brzeski expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise rates by 25bp next week, characterizing it as an ‘insurance’ or dovish hike. He notes Eurozone resilience, but stresses that inflation is mainly driven by energy, limiting the case for further tightening.

TD Securities’ Prashant Newnaha now expects the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to raise the cash rate by 25bps to 4.60% at the late-September meeting. The change follows stronger-than-expected Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and firm discretionary consumption.