Brazil IPCA Inflation above forecasts (0.65%) in February: Actual (0.7%)

EUR/GBP rebounds on Thursday, with the Euro (EUR) gaining 0.08% against the Pound Sterling (GBP), hovering around 0.8632 at the time of writing.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose expects the Central Bank of Turkey to keep rates on hold, seeing this as a tactical pause rather than a shift in strategy.

ING analysts see markets as overly aggressive on Bank of England expectations, with easing priced out after the Iran conflict. They note EUR/GBP’s negative correlation with Oil and warn that no rate changes are now expected by year-end.

Philip Wee at DBS Group Research highlights that the Australian Dollar has outperformed in G10 despite the Iran conflict. He attributes AUD strength to Reserve Bank of Australia policy divergence and a firmly hawkish stance.

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lee Hardman notes the Japanese Yen has underperformed since the Middle East conflict, with USD/JPY back near year-to-date highs.

ING’s FX team argues that while Europe is better positioned on gas than in 2022, the Euro remains vulnerable against the Dollar.

Societe Generale expects the CBRT to keep the one-week repo rate at 37.0% and maintain a hawkish stance, with effective funding already pushed to 40% via the overnight lending window. The bank notes heavy FX reserve use and liquidity draining to support the Lira and tight conditions.

EUR/USD continues to lose ground for the third consecutive day, trading around 1.1550 during the European hours on Thursday. Daily chart technical analysis indicates a persistent bearish bias as the pair moves downwards within a descending channel pattern.

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Michael Wan warns the Indian Rupee is vulnerable under a prolonged Iran–Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure, with USD/INR potentially rising above 95.

DBS Group Research’s Philip Wee warns that caution is warranted on USD/JPY as the pair trades near the 159–160 resistance zone after Operation Epic Fury. He expects the Bank of Japan to deliver a hawkish hold on March 19, distinguishing temporary supply-led inflation from demand-pull pressures.

GBP/USD extends its losses for the third successive session, trading around 1.3380 during the early European hours on Wednesday.

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong argue that higher nominal ECB rate expectations are failing to support the Euro as Oil-driven stagflation erodes the euro area’s real return and worsens its external balance.

The USD/CAD pair trades in negative territory around 1.3600 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. A rise in crude oil prices provides some support to the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD). The US weekly Initial Jobless Claims report will be released later on Thursday. 

UOB strategists Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia highlight a strong USD/JPY rally to just under 159.00, driven by higher US yields. Intraday, they see scope for a test of 159.45 while warning that deeply overbought conditions make further gains difficult.

The EUR/JPY cross loses ground to near 183.55 during the early European session on Thursday, pressured by safe-haven flows.

The USD/CHF pair gathers strength to around 0.7820 during the early European session on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) strengthens against the Swiss Franc (CHF) as soaring oil prices threaten to spur inflation and force the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to adopt more hawkish policy stances.

The AUD/USD pair attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Thursday, and for now, seems to have snapped a four-day winning streak to its highest level since June 2022, around the 0.7185 region, touched the previous day.

NZD/USD remains weaker for the third consecutive day, trading around 0.5900 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair declines as the US Dollar (USD) remains stronger, as surging energy prices heightened inflationary risks and reduced the likelihood of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts.

USD/INR continues its winning streak for the third successive session on Thursday.

EUR/USD extends its losses for the third successive session, trading around 1.1540 during the Asian hours on Thursday.

The GBP/USD pair attracts sellers for the third straight day and touches a fresh weekly low, around the 1.3370 region, during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices, however, recover a few pips in the last hour and currently trade around the 1.3400 mark, down less than 0.15% for the day.

USD/CAD loses its recent gains registered in the previous session, trading around 1.3580 during the Asian hours on Thursday.

The USD/JPY pair trades with mild losses near 158.85 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) amid escalating war in the Middle East. The US weekly Initial Jobless Claims report is due later on Thursday. 

The AUD/USD pair attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Thursday, and for now, seems to have snapped a four-day winning streak to its highest level since June 2022, around the 0.7185 region, touched the previous day.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Thursday at 6.8959 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.8917 and 6.8853 Reuters estimate.

The EUR/USD tumbles for the second straight day after clashing with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1672 on Tuesday, due to overall US Dollar strength.

The AUD/NZD cross is trading near the 1.2100 price region on Wednesday, touching its highest level in 13 years amid market chaos due to the Middle East war between Israel, the US and Iran.

The Australian Dollar extends its gains on Wednesday amid growing speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will raise rates at next week’s meeting. At the time of writing, the AUD/USD trades at 0.7152, up 0.47%.

The Euro (EUR) edges lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday as the Greenback remains well supported amid cautious market sentiment driven by the ongoing US-Iran war.