The Pound Sterling advances by some 0.20% on Friday as Oil prices tumble, weighing on the US Dollar, while the US-Iran conflict signals a further escalation, which market participants ignored. Despite registering daily gains, the GBP/USD is poised to finish the week with losses of nearly 0.70%.

USD/CHF trades flat on Friday as a pullback in Oil prices weighs modestly on the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields. However, the Middle East war and hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations keep an underlying floor under the Greenback.

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report the British Pound (GBP) is slightly higher versus the US Dollar (USD) but lagging most G10 peers.

USD/JPY edges lower on Friday, trading around 163.70, down 0.09% on the day at the time of writing, after hitting a fresh near 40-year high on Thursday.

TD Securities notes that the UK Composite PMI climbed back into expansion at 52.1 in July, led by Manufacturing strength and a Services PMI recovery to 51.8. Input cost inflation eased and business confidence hit its highest since February.

AUD/USD trades higher near the 0.6990 area on Friday, recovering from an earlier pullback as the US Dollar (USD) struggles to gain clear momentum following mixed United States (US) business-activity data.

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Japanese Yen (JPY) is slightly firmer versus the US Dollar (USD) but still underperforming most G10 currencies. USD/JPY trades near levels last seen in 1986, with limited resistance overhead.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad reports that EUR/USD has recovered part of its recent slump but remains below 1.1400. A stronger-than-expected Eurozone July PMI and a hawkish hold from the ECB support the Euro, though higher Oil prices keep growth risks skewed lower.

EUR/USD pares earlier gains on Friday as the widening Middle East war and hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations keep the US Dollar (USD) pinned near recent highs.

USD/CAD trades around 1.4095 on Friday at the time of writing, up a modest 0.06% as the US Dollar (USD) retains a slight advantage following the release of solid US economic data, while the Canadian Dollar (CAD) remains pressured by weak domestic indicators and softer Oil prices.

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed against the US Dollar (USD), with slightly better fundamentals as United States (US) yields ease and spreads narrow.

Societe Generale analysts report USD/ZAR has broken above a multi-month descending trend line and reclaimed its 200-day moving average, suggesting renewed upside momentum. The South African Reserve Bank surprised markets by holding rates at 7.0%.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that USD/JPY is consolidating just below a multi-decade high as Japan’s private sector growth strengthens and Consumer Price Index (CPI) tracks below Bank of Japan (BoJ) forecasts.

EUR/JPY consolidates modest losses on Friday as fresh data from Japan and the Eurozone fails to generate a strong market response. At the time of writing, the cross trades around 186.30 after reaching a 12-week high of 186.67 on Thursday.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights that GBP/USD is consolidating near 1.3300 as United Kingdom (UK) data signal a more favourable growth-inflation mix.

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong observe that while the European Central Bank (ECB) left rates unchanged in July and is expected to deliver at least one more 25 bp hike to 2.50% in September, rising energy prices still tilt terms-of-trade in favor of the US Dollar (USD) over the Euro (EUR).

Societe Generale strategists highlight that the Indian Rupee (INR) stayed defensive as Brent Oil rose to $100, countering support from recent policy steps to attract capital inflows.

Deutsche Bank strategists note that the European Central Bank (ECB) kept its deposit rate at 2.25%, while its communication continued to leave the door open to further tightening.

NZD/USD trades around 0.5790 on Friday at the time of writing, up 0.27% on the day as the pair recovers from a one-and-a-half-week low, although bullish momentum remains limited by the underlying strength of the US Dollar (USD).

According to Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose, the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) kept its one-week repo rate at 37.0% and maintained the corridor at 35.5%-40.0%. With the repo window still closed, effective funding remains near 40%, which Ghose views as Lira-supportive.

EUR/GBP trades around 0.8550 at the time of writing on Friday, remaining broadly stable despite a series of stronger-than-expected economic releases from the Eurozone and the United Kingdom (UK).

The USD/JPY pair edges lower on Friday as bulls turn cautious in anticipation of a potential government intervention to prop up the Japanese Yen (JPY).

MUFG’s Derek Halpenny says the ECB’s latest communication supports a likely September rate hike, now almost fully priced, but warns that Euro support may fade as energy costs rise.

The Euro (EUR) ticks up against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday but remains capped below 1.1400, and dangerously close to the year-to-date low, at 1.1324.

Preliminary HCOB Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), in the oldest continent, expands at a faster pace to 52.0 in July from June’s figure of 51.4. The manufacturing activity was anticipated to expand but at a moderate pace to 51.3.

Silver (XAG/USD) edges up on Friday's early European trading session, returning to levels above $58.00 as the US Dollar trims some gains.

Here is what you need to know on Friday, July 24:

The USD/CAD pair trades in negative territory near 1.4075 during the early European trading hours on Friday. Escalating conflicts in the Middle East boost crude oil prices, supporting the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) against the US Dollar (USD).  

The Euro (EUR) rallies further against the British Pound (GBP) as the latter weakens despite upbeat United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales data for June. The EUR/GBP pair jumps to near 0.8550 in the European trading session on Friday, the highest level seen in two weeks.

The British Pound (GBP) remains pinned near three-week lows against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, trading near 1.3300 and on track for a 1% weekly decline.