DBS Group economist Philip Wee highlights that EUR/USD fell 4% to 1.1415 in early March as Iran-related tensions boosted safe-haven Dollar demand. Markets price two ECB hikes in June and September, and unless the ECB pushes back, EUR/USD is expected to find support near 1.1390.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades firmly against its major currency pairs, except the antipodeans, during the European trading session on Monday. The USD/JPY pair is down 0.26% to near 159.30 at the start of the busy central banks’ week.

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur highlights that the South African Rand has been one of the clear losers from the Iran conflict, hurt by weaker precious metals exports and higher imported energy costs.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to deliver a second consecutive 25 bps hike to 4.10%, though it is described as a close call. Futures imply slightly better than even odds of a move.

Societe Generale economists note that EUR/GBP has slipped below its 200‑DMA and is testing the February low near 0.8610, which may offer interim support.

DBS Group economist Philip Wee warns that USD/JPY is nearing the 160 level, raising intervention risks as Japan and South Korea step up verbal defence of their currencies. Tokyo is in closer contact with US authorities, and a surprise BOJ rate hike on March 19 cannot be ruled out.

ING’s Chris Turner notes that EUR/USD has found support near 1.1390/1.1400 after a sharp 3% decline, but elevated Oil prices and heavy net Euro longs still pose downside risks.

The EUR/USD pair surrenders a majority of its early gains and trades marginally higher at around 1.1430 during European trading hours on Monday. The major currency pair falls back as the US Dollar (USD) recovers half of its early losses.

NZD/USD holds gains after four days of losses, trading around 0.5810 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair remains firm as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) gains support following the release of key economic data from China.

Here is what you need to know on Monday, March 16:

DBS Group economist Philip Wee notes that the Australian Dollar is supported by hawkish domestic fundamentals but constrained by global risk aversion linked to the Iran War. Markets expect a back-to-back RBA hike to 4.10% on March 17, framed as an insurance move.

The AUD/USD pair trades 0.5% higher to near 0.7015 during the early European trading session on Monday.

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur notes that despite higher energy prices, the Japanese Yen has only modestly weakened versus the Dollar and even gained slightly against the Euro.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) underperforms its major currency peers and trades flat against the US Dollar (USD) at around 1.3720 in the early European trade on Monday. The CAD faces selling pressure as the labor market data for February showed that employers fired workers again.

The AUD/JPY cross trades in positive territory around 111.70 during the early European session on Monday. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding the United States (US)-Israel war with Iran, a scenario that typically boosts the demand for safe-haven assets.

USD/CHF lost ground after four days of gains, trading around 0.7890 during the Asian hours on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against peers as risk aversion eases on reports that the United States (US) may announce a coalition to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

The GBP/USD pair gains momentum around 1.3255 during the early European session on Monday, bolstered by a weaker US Dollar (USD). The major pair currently trades near its lowest since December 2025.

The Indian Rupee (INR) snaps four-day winning streak against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday. The USD/INR pair opens lower to near 92.80 as the US Dollar’s rally hits a pause amid speculation that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen soon.

EUR/JPY gains ground after two days of losses, trading around 182.60 during the Asian hours on Monday.

The EUR/USD pair recovers some lost ground to near 1.1450 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. Nonetheless, the potential upside for the major pair might be limited, as escalating conflict in the Middle East could boost safe-haven currencies such as the US Dollar (USD) against the Euro (EUR). 

South Korea Trade Balance fell from previous $15.5B to $15.3B in February

South Korea Trade Balance down to $15.376B in February from previous $15.5B

USD/JPY edges lower after four days of losses, trading around 159.60 during the Asian hours on Monday. On the daily chart, technical analysis indicates a persistent bullish bias as the pair remains within the ascending channel pattern.

AUD/USD edges higher after two days of losses, trading around 0.7010 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair holds ground following the release of key economic data from China.

The NZD/USD pair gains traction to near 0.5805 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) after the release of the Chinese February Retail Sales and Industrial Production reports.

China’s Retail Sales rose 2.8% year-over-year (YoY) in January-February vs. 2.5% expected and 0.9% in December, the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed Monday.

On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.9057 compared to last Friday's fix of 6.9007 and 6.9061 Reuters estimate.

GBP/USD inches higher after four days of losses, trading around 1.3260 during the Asian hours on Monday.

The USD/CAD pair trades in negative territory around 1.3710 during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. Traders will closely monitor the situation in the Middle East.

The EUR/USD pair remains on the defensive around 1.1430 during the early Asian session on Monday. However, the potential upside for the major pair might be limited as escalating Middle East tensions could boost safe-haven flows.