The AUD/USD pair gains momentum near 0.7155 during the early Asian session on Thursday. US President Donald Trump’s extension of a ceasefire with Iran revives risk appetites, supporting the Australian Dollar (AUD) against the US Dollar (USD).
MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lloyd Chan argues that while geopolitical risks stay elevated, valuation metrics such as REER now show meaningful Rupiah undervaluation versus the US Dollar.
GBP/USD was little changed on Wednesday, settling close to 1.3510 after a choppy session that reached 1.3540 in London hours before fading toward 1.3490. Price has been pinned inside a 65-pip band through midweek, with long upper and lower wicks pointing to two-way uncertainty.
USD/JPY was little changed on Wednesday, hovering close to 159.50 in a narrow session after Tuesday's push to 159.64. Price has been confined between 159.10 and 159.60 through the midweek stretch, with overlapping small-bodied candles pointing to indecision.
The NZD/USD pair is trading with a cautious tone around the 0.5910 region on Thursday, as the US Dollar (USD) maintains a firm footing despite a modest pullback in US Treasury yields.
AUD/USD is stuck within a range as Middle East geopolitical tensions remain high, with US President Trump extending the ceasefire while Iran seized two container ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
GBP/JPY trades sideways, clinging to three days of consecutive gains, as market mood remains neutral, though slightly tilted toward optimism, amid high tensions in the Middle East.
NZD/USD holds firm on Wednesday, with the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) outperforming its major peers on the back of a hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) outlook.
The Euro (EUR) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, as ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz offset the impact of the US-Iran ceasefire extension, keeping the Greenback supported.
AUD/USD trades in positive territory on Wednesday, around 0.7160 at the time of writing, up 0.12% on the day.
The USD/JPY climbed near the 159.30 price region on Wednesday, consolidating around recent highs as markets digest fresh developments in the Middle East and shift monetary policy expectations.
GBP/USD holds steady on Wednesday as geopolitical tensions remain high amid the lack of progress toward resuming negotiations between the US and Iran. An absent economic schedule in the US, keeps traders leaning on the latest UK inflation figures, which showed the effects of the energy shock.
EUR/GBP trades on the back foot on Wednesday as UK inflation data lifts the British Pound (GBP), pressuring the Euro (EUR), with the cross extending losses for the second consecutive day. At the time of writing, EUR/GBP is trading around 0.8680, its lowest level since March 31.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret highlight that the Japanese Yen (JPY) is flat against the US Dollar (USD), underperforming G10 peers in subdued trading. USD/JPY price action suggests consolidation in a 157.50–160.50 band, with a flat RSI signaling limited momentum.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed versus the US Dollar (USD), trading around the midpoint of Tuesday’s range. April’s broader USD decline has largely closed CAD’s valuation gap to fair value near 1.3563.
The US Dollar (USD) is trading practically flat, right above 159.00 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Wednesday, consolidating Tuesday’s gains amid cautious markets. Most US Dollar crosses remain moving within previous ranges as the situation in the Middle East deteriorates.
Societe Generale’s Kit Juckes argues EUR/USD is likely to stay range-bound as geopolitical risks and US policy uncertainty offset economic fundamentals. He notes two-year rate differentials point to EUR/USD near 1.14–1.17, while consensus GDP suggests 1.14 is appropriate.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann observe that USD/JPY climbed to 159.37 as the Dollar strengthened. They see scope for a retest of 159.65, with limited follow-through above that level, and expect a broader 157.55–160.50 range.
The EUR/USD pair trades flat at around 1.1745 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The major currency pair consolidates while the US Dollar (USD) edges lower amid hopes of a prolonged standoff between the United States (US) and Iran.
BNY’s Bob Savage notes that Australia’s Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index has slipped below trend, signaling weaker growth ahead as higher rates and the Middle East energy shock weigh on activity.
GBP/USD trades around 1.3515 on Wednesday, gaining a modest 0.06% at the time of writing, as investors digest the latest inflation figures from the United Kingdom (UK) and assess the outlook for monetary policy on both sides of the Atlantic.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that United Kingdom (UK) inflation remains persistently above target, limiting the Bank of England’s (BoE) ability to ignore the energy shock. However, he argues current BoE rate hike expectations are excessive given estimated economic slack.
Rabobank’s Global Strategist Michael Every highlights mounting European energy and geopolitical pressures, including disrupted Oil flows via Druzhba and potential EU financing for Ukraine.
Silver (XAG/USD) nudges higher on Wednesday, but remains at the lower range of Tuesday’s trading, consolidating below $78.00 and with the previous support area of $78.50 capping upside attempts, for now.
The US Dollar (USD) posts minor losses against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) on Wednesday, and is testing session lows below 1.3650 at the time of writing, following rejection at the 1.3675 area on Tuesday.
ING strategist Francesco Pesole argues that EUR/GBP has limited further downside after slipping below 0.8700, as United Kingdom (UK) political risks and stretched Bank of England (BoE) tightening expectations offset risk-on pressures.
EUR/JPY trades around 187.25 on Wednesday at the time of writing, up a modest 0.05% on the day. The cross remains supported by relative stability in the Euro (EUR) as investors assess the impact of geopolitical tensions and diverging monetary policy expectations between Europe and Japan.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that AUD/USD eased to 0.7152 after recent gains, with price action offering few fresh clues. They expect intraday trading between 0.7125 and 0.7175 and see the pair locked in a 0.7060–0.7210 range over the coming weeks.