NZD/USD trades with a mild positive bias on Monday as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) benefits from improved risk sentiment. However, a rebound in US Treasury yields following last week’s pullback supports the US Dollar (USD), capping the pair’s upside.

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note GBP/USD is little changed as markets await UK labour data, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and next week’s budget, where investors expect Chancellor Healey to maintain fiscal discipline. Technically, the British Pound (GBP) has staged a strong bullish weekly reversal from the lower end of its sideways range, with scope to retest 1.3650/75 and initial resistance at the 200-day moving average near 1.3435.

Canadian inflation came in under forecast, and USD/CAD rose off its lowest level since September 23 on the release, though it's still on track for a third straight loss. The low just above 1.4050 came in the bars before the numbers, and the price went back above 1.4100 in the release bar.

Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economist Abbey Xu notes Canadian inflation edged up to 3.1% year-over-year in September, slightly below consensus. Core measures such as Consumer Price Index (CPI) excluding food and energy and the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) CPI-trim and CPI-median remain near 2%.

AUD/USD extends its gains on Monday, trading around 0.6980, up 0.51% on the day at the time of writing. The Australian Dollar (AUD) benefits from hawkish comments by a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) official and stronger-than-expected economic growth in China, Australia's largest trading partner.

USD/CHF trades with a mild positive bias on Monday as the US Dollar (USD) steadies following last week’s pullback, which was driven by a sharp decline in US Treasury yields. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.8260, up 0.22% on the day.

The Pound Sterling holds steady against the US Dollar at the start of the week, yet the ongoing downtrend is poised to continue unless this week’s UK inflation data reflects elevated energy prices due to the US-Iran conflict. The GBP/USD holds above 1.3300, up 0.07%.

Societe Generale strategists report expectations that Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) will hold rates at 37% on Thursday versus consensus for a 100bp cut to 36%. They cite softer growth and liquidity strains versus sticky inflation expectations as reasons for caution. They flag Governor comments on allowing Lira weakness, limited inflation pass-through, and new MSCI-related equity market risks alongside a sharp Borsa Istanbul 100 decline.

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report the Euro (EUR) is underperforming as French protests weigh on local assets and widen spreads versus Germany.

The Euro (EUR) trades on the back foot on Monday as political concerns in France weigh on the currency, helping the US Dollar (USD) pause last week’s correction. At the time of writing, EUR/USD trades around 1.1215, down 0.21% on the day.

Brown Brothers Harriman's Ellias Haddad expects Japan’s September Consumer Price Index (CPI) to edge higher but remain below the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) 2026 projection, limiting pressure for rapid tightening.

USD/CAD pauses its decline on Monday after the Canadian Dollar (CAD) briefly strengthened to its highest level in a month at the weekly open.

Societe Generale strategists note USD/INR remains below 95 in Asia after a 1.9% rally last week, supported by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) measures for Oil importers and speculation curbs. They highlight reported US Dollar (USD) selling by state-run banks and warns RBI’s direct supply to Oil companies could be constrained. FX reserves have dropped sharply and Indian Rupee (INR) shorts in the Reuters poll are at multi‑month highs.

Silver (XAG/USD) kicks off the week on a bullish note but struggles to extend its gains as the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields pause their decline following last week’s correction from recent highs.

GBP/JPY edges higher on Monday, extending its advance for a third consecutive day as the British Pound (GBP) benefits from weakness in the Euro (EUR), while the Japanese Yen (JPY) struggles against most of its major peers despite hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extends its winning streak against the US Dollar (USD) for the third trading day on Monday. The Kiwi pair jumps to near 0.5670 as the New Zealand Dollar outperforms amid strong demand for antipodeans.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad highlights that the Australian Dollar is outperforming, with AUD/USD trading near the top of its recent 0.6900–0.7000 range.

Francesco Pesole at ING expects Canadian inflation to remain contained, keeping a December ‘insurance’ rate hike by the Bank of Canada on the table.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is down against its major currency peers at the start of the week. In the European trade, the US Dollar (USD) is up 0.17% at around 158.25 against the Asia-Pacific currency.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) appreciates further against a moderately offered US Dollar (USD) on Monday, with markets awaiting the release of Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for September.

United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann observe that USD/JPY held within 157.67–158.33 on Friday, closing almost unchanged at 157.99. Short-term momentum is tilting lower, with scope to test 157.50, though a decisive break below that level is not expected.

Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux notes that USD/CAD has reversed from overbought territory near 1.43 and broken below a recent consolidation floor at 1.4200.

The AUD/JPY cross attracts follow-through buying for the second straight day, recovering further from an eight-month low, around the 108.65 region, touched last Thursday.

ING’s Francesco Pesole says EUR/USD is modestly undervalued versus short-term fair value around 1.137–1.139, but ongoing French fiscal concerns and protests may limit gains. He sees risks as balanced, with downside from France and upside from further AI-related pressure on Fed expectations, and keeps a one-month EUR/USD target at 1.130.

The British Pound (GBP) trades marginally lower at around 1.3314 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Monday, but is wobbling inside Friday’s trading range.

The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on a modest intraday bounce from the 1.1185 area and retains a mildly negative bias through the early European session on Monday.

Here is what you need to know on Monday, October 19:

Canada’s September Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures will be the focus of attention on Monday.

Silver (XAG/USD) has entered the week with a moderately bullish tone, favoured by a soft US Dollar (USD), but the precious metal remains trading within previous ranges, with bulls, so far, capped below the 0.5800 area.  

The Australian Dollar (AUD) outperforms its currency peers at the start of the week, trading almost 0.5% higher at around 0.6980 against the US Dollar (USD) in the European trade.