GBP/USD gained almost 0.75% on Monday, bouncing from Friday's low close to 1.3220 to settle on the high side of 1.3300.
USD/JPY backslid around 0.4% on Monday, snapping a four-session winning streak and pulling back to the 159.00 region in otherwise unremarkable market action.
AUD/USD gained around 1.25% on Monday, bouncing from last week's lows to settle around 0.7070. The pair has been in a choppy range since peaking near 0.7190 in early February, with price pulling back repeatedly toward the 0.7000 area before recovering.
The NZD/USD pair is trading near the 0.5860 level, recovering after four days of straight losses. The rebound was supported by the release of solid economic data from China, New Zealand’s trading partner.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) gains traction against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday as the Greenback edges lower, allowing USD/CHF to pause a four-day winning streak. At the time of writing, USD/CHF trades around 0.7869, easing slightly after touching its highest level since January 23 on Friday.
NZD/USD rises on Monday and trades around 0.5850 at the time of writing, up 1.42% on the day. The pair rebounds after several days of decline, supported by improving risk sentiment and macroeconomic factors favorable to the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).
The Euro (EUR) rebounds against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday as the Greenback eases following its recent rally, allowing EUR/USD to rebound from the seven-month lows touched on Friday.
USD/JPY declines on Monday, trading around 159.20 at the time of writing, down 0.33% on the day as the Japanese Yen (JPY) gains modest ground ahead of a crucial week for global central banks, with policy decisions from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) scheduled for Wednesday and
The GBP/USD pair is trading near the 1.3310 price region, trimming almost all its losses from Friday and breaking its four-day losing streak, as investors seem to have digested the United States/Israeli escalation in the war against Iran over the weekend.
The Euro (EUR) edges lower against the British Pound (GBP) on Monday, with EUR/GBP trimming earlier gains as traders refrain from making aggressive directional bets ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) interest-rate decisions due later this week.
AUD/USD rises on Monday, trading around 0.7060 at the time of writing, up 1.16% on the day. The pair rebounds strongly after two days of losses, supported by renewed optimism around the Australian Dollar (AUD) and expectations of further monetary tightening in Australia.
Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley argues that while the Swiss Franc meets many safe-haven criteria, its strength remains problematic for the SNB given very low inflation and a zero policy rate.
USD/CAD trades on the back foot on Monday as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) draws support from a softer US Dollar (USD), while traders show a muted reaction to the latest Canadian inflation data as attention remains firmly focused on heightened geopolitical tensions surrounding the ongoing US-Iran war.
MUFG analysts maintain a short EUR/USD stance, arguing that the Euro faces a larger negative terms-of-trade shock from higher Oil and natural gas prices.
BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage notes the Australian Dollar (AUD) is entering the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting with one of the most hawkish policy profiles in the G10, yet without a surge in inflows.
The Pound Sterling trades cautiously against its major currency peers, but 0.4% higher to near 1.3270 against the US Dollar (USD), during the European trading session on Monday.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad points out that USD/CAD slipped back below 1.3700 ahead of Canada’s February CPI release. Consensus expects headline inflation to fall on base effects, leaving core near mid-2% levels.
EUR/JPY trades around 182.40 on Monday at the time of writing, virtually unchanged on the day after two consecutive days of decline. The cross stabilizes as the Euro (EUR) finds some support against its major peers.
DBS Group economist Philip Wee highlights that EUR/USD fell 4% to 1.1415 in early March as Iran-related tensions boosted safe-haven Dollar demand. Markets price two ECB hikes in June and September, and unless the ECB pushes back, EUR/USD is expected to find support near 1.1390.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades firmly against its major currency pairs, except the antipodeans, during the European trading session on Monday. The USD/JPY pair is down 0.26% to near 159.30 at the start of the busy central banks’ week.
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur highlights that the South African Rand has been one of the clear losers from the Iran conflict, hurt by weaker precious metals exports and higher imported energy costs.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to deliver a second consecutive 25 bps hike to 4.10%, though it is described as a close call. Futures imply slightly better than even odds of a move.
Societe Generale economists note that EUR/GBP has slipped below its 200‑DMA and is testing the February low near 0.8610, which may offer interim support.
DBS Group economist Philip Wee warns that USD/JPY is nearing the 160 level, raising intervention risks as Japan and South Korea step up verbal defence of their currencies. Tokyo is in closer contact with US authorities, and a surprise BOJ rate hike on March 19 cannot be ruled out.
ING’s Chris Turner notes that EUR/USD has found support near 1.1390/1.1400 after a sharp 3% decline, but elevated Oil prices and heavy net Euro longs still pose downside risks.
The EUR/USD pair surrenders a majority of its early gains and trades marginally higher at around 1.1430 during European trading hours on Monday. The major currency pair falls back as the US Dollar (USD) recovers half of its early losses.
NZD/USD holds gains after four days of losses, trading around 0.5810 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair remains firm as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) gains support following the release of key economic data from China.
Here is what you need to know on Monday, March 16:
DBS Group economist Philip Wee notes that the Australian Dollar is supported by hawkish domestic fundamentals but constrained by global risk aversion linked to the Iran War. Markets expect a back-to-back RBA hike to 4.10% on March 17, framed as an insurance move.
The AUD/USD pair trades 0.5% higher to near 0.7015 during the early European trading session on Monday.