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Forex Today: What if the ECB…?

The US Dollar (USD) has come under fresh downside pressure on Wednesday, as investors continued to digest the latest FOMC event and the mixed performance of US Treasury yields across the curve.

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Australian Dollar holds firm as Fed pause exposes split over inflation

The Australian Dollar remains firm against the US Dollar after the Federal Reserve held rates steady, despite US inflation staying well above its 2% target. The decision was not unanimous: two members dissented in favour of a quarter-percentage-point rate hike. The AUD/USD trades at 0.7056.

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Japanese Yen weakens as Fed hold reveals hawkish divide

The Japanese Yen lost ground against the US Dollar after the Federal Reserve kept rates steady, even though US inflation remains well above its 2% target. Of note, the decision was not unanimous, with two dissenters in favour of a quarter-percentage-point rate hike.

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British Pound recovers as Fed holds rates amid hawkish split

The Pound Sterling recovers some ground after the Federal Reserve held rates unchanged, as markets expected, in a 10–2 vote, with two dissenters voting for a rate increase. The GBP/USD trades near 1.3300.

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Canadian Dollar barely moves on Fed rate hold following BoC hike

The Bank of Canada (BoC) raised its rate to 2.50% on Wednesday and the Fed held at 3.75%-4.00%, so the Fed's lead shrank by a quarter-point in one session.

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Euro edges up as the Fed holds a day before the ECB

After the Fed's hold, Thursday's decision from the European Central Bank (ECB) is the week's last chance to change EUR/USD's rate gap, and a hold is expected there too. The pair rose on the statement and won back part of a slide from the session high just above 1.1150.

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New Zealand Dollar drops sharply as RBNZ leaves rates unchanged ahead Fed decision

NZD/USD falls sharply on Wednesday, losing 0.98% on the day to trade around 0.5625 at the time of writing. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) faces significant selling pressure after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) unexpectedly left its benchmark interest rate unchanged.

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Australian Dollar finds fresh momentum as inflation surprises ahead of Fed decision

AUD/USD advances on Wednesday, gaining 0.17% on the day to trade around 0.7035 at the time of writing. The Australian Dollar (AUD) benefits from hotter-than-expected inflation data in Australia, which strengthens expectations of another interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

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Swiss Franc remains under pressure as traders await Fed interest rate decision

USD/CHF consolidates modest gains on Wednesday ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement at 18:00 GMT. The pair remains on the front foot for a fourth consecutive day as traders favour higher-yielding currencies, leaving the Swiss Franc (CHF) under pressure.

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British Pound clings to 1.3300 on UK budget ahead of Fed’s decision

The Pound Sterling retreats for the fourth consecutive day versus the US Dollar, down 0.02% as investors brace for the Federal Reserve policy decision and also digest the UK’s Autumn Budget. The GBP/USD trades near 1.3300, barely unchanged.

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Australian Dollar: Upside scope toward 0.7060 cap against US Dollar – UOB

UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note AUD/USD has shifted into a slightly higher intraday range after touching 0.7055 in early Asia, with scope to test 0.7060 while major resistance at 0.7070 is seen out of reach and support at 0.7020.

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Canadian Dollar struggles to gain traction despite BoC rate hike

USD/CAD is little changed during American trading hours on Wednesday as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) struggles to benefit from a widely anticipated Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate hike.

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Euro edges higher vs CAD as BoC rate hike lands in line, focus shifts to ECB

EUR/CAD trades around 1.5640 on Wednesday, gaining 0.06% on the day at the time of writing, despite the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) decision to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.50%.

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New Zealand Dollar: RBNZ defers hikes as inflation builds – Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered’s Bader Al Sarraf and Nicholas Chia note that the RBNZ unexpectedly held its OCR at 2.75% in a narrow 4-3 vote, weighing on the New Zealand dollar despite signals that further tightening remains likely.

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Euro steadies near 17-month lows ahead of Fed rate verdict

EUR/USD trades with a positive bias during American trading hours on Wednesday as the US Dollar (USD) pauses its advance ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision, due at 18:00 GMT.

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Japanese Yen: Safe haven debate and fiscal backdrop – Rabobank

Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley discusses whether the Japanese Yen (JPY) has regained safe haven characteristics after strong performance versus G10 peers.

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Australian Dollar: Hot CPI bolsters RBA hike prospects – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad notes AUD/USD has failed to clear its 200-day moving average, but stronger-than-expected Australian inflation data supports the case for further Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) tightening. Headline and trimmed mean Consumer Price Index (CPI) are running above the RBA’s August projections, prompting futures to increase the implied probability of a November hike to 4.85% and to price in an additional move in Q1, underpinning the Australian

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Swiss Franc ticks up from two-week lows with Fed decision on tap

The Swiss Franc (CHF) has retraced previous gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday and trades practically flat on the daily chart, stronger as investors brace for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision, due later in the day.

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Euro rebounds against British Pound as UK Budget takes centre stage

EUR/GBP bears take a breather on Wednesday, pausing a two-day losing streak as traders trim their exposure to the British Pound ahead of the UK Autumn Budget at 12:30 GMT. At the time of writing, the cross trades around 0.8375, up 0.17% on the day, but remains near its lowest levels since May 2025.

출처  Fxstreet1793189419
The RBNZ surprised markets with a pause and the Kiwi sank 1.6%: Why December hike bets may not save it

The US Dollar (USD) capitalized on an unexpected monetary policy pause by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), which held its Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 2.75% in a narrow 4–3 vote despite widespread market expectations for a 25-basis-points (bps) rate hike.

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Canadian Dollar: BoC tightening and forecasts to back currency – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad notes USD/CAD is holding above 1.4000 ahead of the Bank of Canada decision, where an 80% priced 25 bps hike to 2.50% would mark the start of a new tightening phase.

출처  Fxstreet1793188709
NZD/USD Price Forecast: Bears eye 18-months low at 0.5564

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) sells off across the board on Wednesday and dives more than 1.3% against the US Dollar (USD) following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) monetary policy decision.

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British Pound trades lower ahead of UK budget announcement

The British Pound (GBP) is down 0.17% at around 209.70 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) during the European trading session on Wednesday. The cross is under pressure as the British currency weakens ahead of the United Kingdom (UK) Autumn Forecast Statement.

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Euro: Lending slowdown threatens key support against US Dollar - ING

Chris Turner at ING highlights that EUR/USD is trading at its lows of the year, pressured by broad Dollar strength, high energy prices and uncertainty around the French budget. While Eurozone activity and upcoming 3Q26 GDP data look relatively resilient, tighter lending conditions and weaker corporate loan demand raise downside risks for EUR/USD technical support levels.

출처  Fxstreet1793180884
British Pound trims losses but remains below 1.3300 with all eyes on the UK budget

The British Pound (GBP) is heading south against the US Dollar (USD) for the fourth consecutive day on Wednesday, with investors awaiting the release of the UK budget and the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision, both due later in the day.

출처  Fxstreet1793180845
Swiss Franc: Further weakness seen against US Dollar - UOB

UOB’s Quek Ser Leang highlights that USD/CHF extended gains to 0.8294 despite overbought conditions, with intraday scope for further upside though a move to the major 0.8320 resistance is seen unlikely. On a 1–3 week horizon, he now expects the pair to test 0.8320 after a close at 0.8290, but judges the odds of a sustained break above this level as low while strong support has shifted to 0.8250.

출처  Fxstreet1793179789
USD/CAD Price Forecast: Moves above 1.4050 to target moving averages

USD/CAD gains ground for the third consecutive day, trading around 1.4060 during European hours on Wednesday. The Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to deliver a 25-basis-point interest rate hike later in the day.

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Euro seems vulnerable near yearly low, Fed-ECB policy is under spotlight

The Euro (EUR) trades close to its yearly low of 1.1113 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Wednesday. The major currency pair is under pressure as heightened concerns in French bond markets and rising oil prices continue to weigh on the Euro.

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Australian Dollar outperforms as hot CPI data lifts hawkish RBA expectations

The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades sharply higher against its major currency peers on Wednesday. Against the US Dollar (USD), the antipodean is up 0.15% to near 0.7035 even after giving back some of its early losses.

출처  Fxstreet1793177635
New Zealand Dollar: RBNZ pause signals downside risk against US Dollar – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Norman Liebke notes that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) surprised markets by holding at 2.75%, even as it signalled further hikes will likely be needed.

출처  Fxstreet1793177391
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