BNP Paribas sees Japan’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth slowing to 0.5% in 2026 from 1.1% in 2025 as the energy shock weighs on activity. Inflation is expected to stay above the 2% target through at least 2028.

The Pound Sterling steadies on Monday as speculation of a peace deal between the US and Iran fades, following weekend exchanges of fire that are a headwind for GBP/USD, which trades near 1.3445 at the time of writing.

NZD/USD trades around 0.5930 at the time of writing on Monday, down 1.00% on the day, as the US Dollar (USD) benefits from renewed safe-haven demand amid a risk-off market environment.

EUR/USD comes under renewed selling pressure on Monday as initial optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran peace deal fades amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1626, down nearly 0.30% on the day.

The USD/JPY pair advances toward the 159.70 region, very close to intervention levels near 160.00, on Monday, as the United States Dollar (USD) strengthens following stronger-than-expected manufacturing data, while escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East keep market participants cautious

USD/CHF edges higher on Monday as fading hopes for a near-term US-Iran peace deal underpin the US Dollar (USD) and keep the Swiss Franc (CHF) under pressure despite stronger-than-expected Swiss Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to keep its policy rate at 5.25%, but warns of a potential hawkish surprise aimed at supporting the Rupee.

MUFG’s Teppei Ino notes USD/JPY is encountering strong topside resistance and potential intervention risks just below 160.

BNY’s Bob Savage flags softer Australian activity, with manufacturing PMI only marginally in expansion as new and export orders fall and cost pressures stay intense. The Melbourne Institute inflation gauge dipped on fuel, while national home values were flat, with Sydney and Melbourne declining.

Societe Generale analysts underline that USD/JPY has rebounded after defending a multi-month ascending trend line and 200-day moving average near 155. The pair is edging toward the April high at 160.50/160.70, seen as crucial resistance.

Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley expects EUR/USD to stay largely range-bound near key moving averages as markets await clarity on a potential US-Iran deal and US data that could shift Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations.

USD/JPY trades around 159.50 on Monday at the time of writing, up 0.13% on the day, as the US Dollar (USD) benefits from renewed safe-haven demand amid a worsening market sentiment backdrop.

The British Pound (GBP) remains practically flat against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, trading both sides of the 1.3450 level, with investors wary of taking excessive risks.

The AUD/USD pair trades in a tight range around 0.7175 during the European trading session on Monday. The Aussie pair consolidates as uncertainty regarding the United States (US)-Iran negotiations toward a permanent peace deal has escalated.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is facing notable headwinds following unexpected data showing that Canada’s economy has entered a technical recession.

EUR/JPY trades around 185.80 at the time of writing on Monday, up a modest 0.05% on the day.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that Swiss inflation remains comfortably within the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) price stability definition, with May Consumer Price Index (CPI) expected to stay subdued.

BNP Paribas projects Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth slowing from 1.5% in 2025 to 1.0% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027, with inflation rebounding to 3.0% and 3.3%. Activity is seen withstanding the energy shock thanks to investment in defence, AI and electrification.

The Euro (EUR) holds marginal losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, although the EUR/USD pair remains steady right below the top of the last two weeks' range, at the 1.1660 area.

Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) strategist Elias Haddad highlights that the Canadian Dollar (CAD) underperformed as weaker Oil and an unexpected technical recession hit sentiment.

Eurozone Unemployment Rate registered at 6.3% above expectations (6.2%) in April

Danske Research Team notes that revised Swedish national accounts data point to stronger historical growth but slightly weaker current momentum. Q1 GDP declined quarter-on-quarter but rose year-on-year, with weakness driven by government consumption and investment.

The British Pound (GBP) trades higher against its major currency peers, but is broadly flat around 1.3455 against the US Dollar (USD), during the European trading session on Monday.

Eurozone M3 Money Supply (3m) fell from previous 3.2% to 3% in April

Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI above expectations (51.4) in May: Actual (51.6)

Eurozone M3 Money Supply (YoY) came in at 2.7%, below expectations (3.3%) in April

Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI above forecasts (49.9) in May: Actual (50.1)

France HCOB Manufacturing PMI registered at 49.7 above expectations (48.9) in May

Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.9, above expectations (52) in May

The GBP/JPY cross attracts some follow-through buyers at the start of a new week and climbs to a one-month peak during the early European session. Spot prices, however, remain below the 215.00 psychological mark.