The AUD/USD turned lower on Thursday, retreating from the multi-year peak of 0.7186 achieved on Wednesday. The Greenback hedged sharply higher as the Middle East war intensified, pushing Oil prices up and fuelling demand for the safe-haven US Dollar (USD).

The Swiss Franc (CHF) is experiencing marked losses against both the Euro (EUR) and the US Dollar (USD) as the NA session draws to a close on Thursday.

The US Dollar (USD) trades with a firmer tone across the FX board in the American session on Thursday, as persistent concerns about oil supply disruptions undermine the market’s mood. The EUR/USD pair trades in the 1.1520 price zone, not far above the 2026 low at 1.1507.

NZD/USD trades lower on Thursday, hovering around 0.5860 at the time of writing and down 0.90% on the day. The pair is posting a third consecutive daily decline, pressured by renewed strength in the US Dollar (USD) and rising geopolitical tensions.

The GBP/USD pair is trading near the 1.3350 level, losing ground for the third consecutive day amid intensifying tensions in the Middle East.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades under pressure against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, with USD/JPY returning to levels that previously triggered official “rate checks” by Japanese authorities on January 23, reviving concerns about potential currency intervention.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) edges lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, pressured by sustained demand for the Greenback amid the ongoing US-Iran war. At the time of writing, USD/CAD is trading around 1.3621, extending its rebound after falling to one-month lows near 1.3525 earlier this week.

AUD/USD trades lower on Thursday at around 0.7095 at the time of writing, down 0.83% on the day, after reaching its highest level since June 2022 near 0.7185 on Wednesday. The pullback mainly reflects renewed demand for the US Dollar (USD) as investors turn more cautious.

BNY strategist Geoff Yu argues that Brazil and the Brazilian Real (BRL) currently underpin Latin American resilience to global shocks thanks to commodities and high real rates.

The Euro (EUR) remains on the back foot against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, with EUR/USD extending losses for the third straight day as the escalating US-Iran war keeps the Greenback firmly bid.

Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley highlights that AUD/JPY has surged to its highest level since 1990, supported by Australia’s status as a net energy exporter and speculation about further RBA rate hikes.

Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley notes that despite shifting rate expectations elsewhere in G10, surveys show BoJ watchers still expect a rate hike by the end of June.

USD/JPY trades around 158.90 on Thursday at the time of writing, showing little change on the day.

ING’s Francesco Pesole highlights the Australian Dollar as a key G10 outperformer, supported by strong RBA hike expectations and high Oil prices. Markets now assign a 70% probability to a 25bp hike next week, with AUD/USD seen targeting 0.7200 if equities hold up.

Brazil IPCA Inflation above forecasts (0.65%) in February: Actual (0.7%)

EUR/GBP rebounds on Thursday, with the Euro (EUR) gaining 0.08% against the Pound Sterling (GBP), hovering around 0.8632 at the time of writing.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose expects the Central Bank of Turkey to keep rates on hold, seeing this as a tactical pause rather than a shift in strategy.

ING analysts see markets as overly aggressive on Bank of England expectations, with easing priced out after the Iran conflict. They note EUR/GBP’s negative correlation with Oil and warn that no rate changes are now expected by year-end.

Philip Wee at DBS Group Research highlights that the Australian Dollar has outperformed in G10 despite the Iran conflict. He attributes AUD strength to Reserve Bank of Australia policy divergence and a firmly hawkish stance.

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lee Hardman notes the Japanese Yen has underperformed since the Middle East conflict, with USD/JPY back near year-to-date highs.

ING’s FX team argues that while Europe is better positioned on gas than in 2022, the Euro remains vulnerable against the Dollar.

Societe Generale expects the CBRT to keep the one-week repo rate at 37.0% and maintain a hawkish stance, with effective funding already pushed to 40% via the overnight lending window. The bank notes heavy FX reserve use and liquidity draining to support the Lira and tight conditions.

EUR/USD continues to lose ground for the third consecutive day, trading around 1.1550 during the European hours on Thursday. Daily chart technical analysis indicates a persistent bearish bias as the pair moves downwards within a descending channel pattern.

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Michael Wan warns the Indian Rupee is vulnerable under a prolonged Iran–Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure, with USD/INR potentially rising above 95.

DBS Group Research’s Philip Wee warns that caution is warranted on USD/JPY as the pair trades near the 159–160 resistance zone after Operation Epic Fury. He expects the Bank of Japan to deliver a hawkish hold on March 19, distinguishing temporary supply-led inflation from demand-pull pressures.

GBP/USD extends its losses for the third successive session, trading around 1.3380 during the early European hours on Wednesday.

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong argue that higher nominal ECB rate expectations are failing to support the Euro as Oil-driven stagflation erodes the euro area’s real return and worsens its external balance.

The USD/CAD pair trades in negative territory around 1.3600 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. A rise in crude oil prices provides some support to the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD). The US weekly Initial Jobless Claims report will be released later on Thursday. 

UOB strategists Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia highlight a strong USD/JPY rally to just under 159.00, driven by higher US yields. Intraday, they see scope for a test of 159.45 while warning that deeply overbought conditions make further gains difficult.

The EUR/JPY cross loses ground to near 183.55 during the early European session on Thursday, pressured by safe-haven flows.