Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose expects the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) to cut rates again after a seemingly benign inflation print, arguing that disinflation is not genuine and regional trends are pro-inflationary.

The British Pound (GBP) keeps heading higher against a weaker US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, as markets brace for Federal Reserve (Fed) policy next week, while in the UK the conditions are set for a Bank of England (BoE) rate hike in November.

Danske Research Team notes that Japan’s September Consumer Price Index (CPI) and October flash Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data are due overnight, following recent Tokyo inflation figures that signaled stronger core price pressures.

The British Pound (GBP) is down 0.5% at around 210.30 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) during the European session on Thursday. The cross faces selling pressure as the Japanese currency outperforms even as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 1.25% next week.

Chris Turner at ING highlights that EUR/USD is holding up despite higher energy prices and French budget risks, helped by unwinding of heavy US tech and Dollar positions. He sees Fed tightening expectations remaining firm and the Dollar strong in coming months. Turner says EUR/USD upside is constrained, though a tech-led Dollar correction could open a move toward 1.1340/50, with a one-month forecast at 1.13.

The AUD/USD pair retreats after hitting a fresh monthly high on Thursday, snapping a four-day winning streak and stalling its recent goodish recovery from sub-0.6900 levels, or the lowest since early July.

USD/CAD continues its losing streak for the sixth successive day, trading around 1.4020 during European hours on Thursday. The pair is retaining a bearish near-term bias as it holds beneath both the 50- and nine-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur notes that softer South African inflation reduces the likelihood of further SARB hikes and supports higher real rates, which is mildly positive for the Rand.

The Euro (EUR) gives back its early gains against the US Dollar (USD) and flattens at around 1.1234 during the European trade on Thursday. The major currency pair comes under pressure as the Euro faces multiple headwinds.

The USD/JPY pair comes under intense selling pressure on Thursday, breaking through a short-term trading range support near mid-157.00s and hitting a fresh monthly low during the early European session.

NZD/USD halts its five-day winning streak, trading around 0.5700 during European hours on Thursday. The pair has experienced a decline as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) faces pressure from softer-than-expected inflation data.

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky expects the Central Bank of Turkey to resume easing, cutting rates by 100bp to 36.00%, with further 100bp cuts in October and December to 35% by year-end. He notes improved inflation sentiment and contained fund-related risks but warns of weaker domestic demand. Despite crowded long TRY positions, he sees the carry trade persisting and forecasts USD/TRY at 51.50 by year-end.

The Indian Rupee (INR) struggles to extend its winning streak for the eighth trading day against the US Dollar (USD). The USD/INR pair rebounds to near 94.78 after attracting signfiicant bids at around the seven-week low of 97.33.

Silver (XAG/USD) has resumed its broader bearish trend on Thursday, to reach session lows below $56.00 after an impulsive reversal from the $58.00 area.

United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann see USD/JPY confined to a narrow intraday band between 157.90 and 158.50 as recent moves remain range-bound. Over one to three weeks they expect a slightly tighter 157.70–158.80 corridor to contain price action. Their 1–3 month outlook, however, highlights a rapid build-up in downward momentum, suggesting further weakness, though it is unclear if the January low at 152.08 will be tested.

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, October 22:

Commerzbank’s Norman Liebke notes that rising RBA rate expectations have lifted the Australian Dollar (AUD), with markets now pricing a high probability of a hike by year-end.

The USD/CAD pair weakens to around 1.4025 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. The pair hits the lowest since September 21 as elevated crude oil prices underpin the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) against the US Dollar (USD).

The British Pound (GBP) reflects strength against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, trading firmly near the monthly high at around 1.3410 in the European trade.

The Euro (EUR) shows a mild bullish correction against the British Pound (GBP) on Thursday, following a more than 2.7% selloff from late September highs that had pushed the Relative Strength Index to heavily oversold levels in most timeframes.

The EUR/USD pair trades in positive territory near 1.1245 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. Nonetheless, the potential upside might be limited amid fiscal concerns in France. European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Fabio Panetta is scheduled to speak later on Thursday.

The USD/JPY pair declines to a one-week low during the Asian session on Thursday, currently trading around the 157.70 region, closer to the lower boundary of a range held since the beginning of this month amid a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD).

USD/CHF loses ground for the third consecutive day, trading around 0.8230 during Asian hours on Thursday.

The AUD/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 110.60 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. Hawkish remarks from Japanese authorities provide some support to the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the Australian Dollar (AUD).

EUR/JPY loses ground for the second successive day, trading around 177.50 during Asian hours on Thursday. Technical analysis of the daily chart shows the currency cross remains within a descending channel pattern, suggesting an ongoing bearish bias.

The AUD/USD pair loses momentum to around 0.7015 during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday. Risk-off bias and safe havens flows provide some support to the US Dollar (USD) against the Australian Dollar (AUD).

Silver price (XAG/USD) loses ground for the second successive day, trading around $56.80 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Thursday. Non-yielding Silver faces challenges as surging oil prices fuel inflation fears and boost expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike.

The USD/JPY pair holds steady above the 158.00 mark during the Asian session on Thursday, extending its consolidative price action witnessed since the beginning of this month amid a combination of diverging forces.

USD/CAD extends its losing streak for the sixth consecutive day, trading around 1.4040 during Asian hours on Thursday. The currency pair experienced downward pressure as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) gained strength from a rally in crude oil prices.

The EUR/USD pair trades with mild gains near 1.1235 during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday. However, the potential upside for the major pair might be limited amid concerns over the political and fiscal outlook in France.