Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama returned to the verbal channel on Monday, signaling Tokyo's readiness to take decisive action against speculative foreign exchange moves under last September's bilateral agreement with the US, just two trading days after the Ministry of Finance (MoF) and Bank of Jap

EUR/GBP edges higher on Monday as ongoing tensions in the Middle East keep market volatility elevated, while political uncertainty in the UK adds modest pressure on the British Pound (GBP). At the time of writing, the cross is trading around 0.8645, recovering from an intraday low of 0.8629.

GBP/USD falls on Monday as tensions in the Middle East remain high as Iran threatens US Navy to not enter the Strait of Hormuz, amid growing speculation that Tehran’s launched missiles to a US warship. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.3531, slightly down 0.34%.

The AUD/USD pair is trading with a cautious tone, hovering near the 0.7190 price zone as investors position ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy decision due later on Monday.

USD/JPY trades around 157.00 on Monday, virtually unchanged on the day, after a sharp move during the Asian session briefly sent the pair down to 155.71 before a swift rebound.

Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen writes that suspected MoF/BoJ intervention has strengthened the Japanese Yen (JPY), but questions how long gains will last. Markets still doubt the Bank of Japan's (BoJ willingness to respond forcefully to inflation, and see the JPY as a G10 laggard.

USD/CAD edges higher on Monday as rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, amid the ongoing US–Iran standoff, support the US Dollar (USD). At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.3617, up nearly 0.22% on the day.

BNY’s Bob Savage highlights comments from Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy member Prasanna Gai, who argues the Strait of Hormuz supply shock does not warrant automatic rate hikes.

BNP Paribas economists expect the United States (US) economy to grow above potential in 2026, with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 2.4% and inflation at 3.3%, while the Fed Funds target range is seen steady at 3.5%-3.75%.

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur highlights strong market conviction that the RBA will deliver a third consecutive rate hike, with futures implying a 75% probability. Inflation and expectations remain well above target and RBA rhetoric has turned more hawkish.

BNY’s Bob Savage points out that the Euro is holding above 1.1700 even as the US Dollar (USD) firms, with markets weighing divergent European Central Bank (ECB) rhetoric. François Villeroy de Galhau argues for waiting for more data, while Peter Kažimír signals near-certainty of a June rate hike.

USD/CHF trades around 0.7840 on Monday, up 0.28% on the day, supported by a renewed wave of risk aversion that is boosting the US Dollar (USD).

The Pound (GBP) reverses initial gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday and extends its correction from Friday’s highs above 1.3650, to session lows below 1.3550.

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister argues that higher Oil prices are giving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) temporary support, but warns that a fragile Canadian economy and upcoming USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) talks could trigger setbacks.

EUR/JPY trades around 184.00 on Monday, down slightly by 0.04% at the time of writing, as contrasting fundamentals persist between a resilient Eurozone and a Japanese Yen (JPY) supported by defensive flows.

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that USD/JPY’s sharp pullback after breaking 160 likely reflected real Japanese Yen (JPY)-buying intervention in thin Golden Week liquidity.

The Euro (EUR) is retreating further from last week's highs at the 1.1785 area against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, and trades at session lows near 1.1710 at the time of writing.

AUD/USD pulls back from 46-month high of 0.7227, reached on May 1, trading around 0.7200 during the European hours on Monday. The pair weakens as the US Dollar (USD) gains on safe-haven demand after Iran’s armed forces warned of a harsh response if the United States (US) enters the Strait of Hormuz.

The GBP/JPY cross seems to have stabilized following good two-way price swings earlier this Monday and trades just below the 213.00 mark during the first half of the European session.

NZD/USD holds ground after experiencing volatility, trading around 0.5900 during the European hours on Monday. The pair gains ground as the US Dollar (USD) has recovered its daily losses and is extending its gains amid uncertainty surrounding the United States (US)–Iran peace negotiations.

Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence: -16.4 (May) vs -19.2

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister argues the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has few sustainable tools to weaken the Swiss Franc (CHF) against major currencies such as the US Dollar (USD).

Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI in line with forecasts (52.2) in April

Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI registered at 51.4 above expectations (51.2) in April

France HCOB Manufacturing PMI meets expectations (52.8) in April

Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.1, above expectations (51.6) in April

Switzerland SVME - Purchasing Managers' Index came in at 54.5, above forecasts (53.5) in April

The Euro (EUR) opens the week on a soft note against the British Pound (GBP). The pair shows moderate losses, as Friday’s upside attempt from the 0.8620 lows failed to find acceptance above a previous support area at 0.8640, which leaves the year-to-date low, at 0.8611, exposed

The USD/CAD pair recovers some lost ground near 1.3595 during the early European trading hours on Monday. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) on lower crude oil prices. The US and Canadian employment data for April will be the highlights later on Friday. 

MUFG’s Michael Wan highlights that Japanese authorities likely intervened in FX markets as USD/JPY dropped from near 160 to below 157, with estimated operations of JPY5-6 trillion. He notes these efforts mirror past interventions in 2022 and 2024.