Societe Generale strategists highlight Brazil’s election surprise, with Lula securing a fourth term and triggering expectations of sharp Brazilian Real (BRL) losses. They see unwinding of long BRL positions and stress key resistance levels around 5.20–5.31 for USD/BRL.

The US Dollar (USD) is trimming some losses against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) on Monday as investors brace for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision, due on Wednesday, while lower Oil prices hurt the commodity-sensitive Loonie.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight that USD/JPY’s sharp fall has generated strong downside momentum.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades lower against its major currency peers on Monday. In the European trade, the US Dollar (USD) is up 0.35% at around 157.36 against the Japanese currency.

Deutsche Bank strategists highlight Brazil’s surprise election, with President Lula winning a fourth term after trailing in the first round. A Tokyo-listed ETF tracking Brazilian equities fell sharply, and the Real is indicated lower via derivatives. They stress that a rightward shift in Congress should constrain fiscal loosening, making Lula’s ability to establish a credible fiscal path crucial for Brazilian assets.

The British Pound (GBP) extends its reversal from the five-week highs reached against the US Dollar (USD) last week, as investors trim USD short positions ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy meeting, due on Wednesday.

Danske Research Team notes UK flash PMIs strengthened in October, with the composite rising to 53.1 and new orders growing at the fastest pace in over two years. Employment returned to growth, but input cost inflation hit its highest level since June.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to keep its policy rate at 1.25% while assessing September’s hike before tightening again. Firmer underlying inflation could lead to a more hawkish Outlook Report, with swaps pricing a high probability of a December move to 1.50%. This shift in expectations is seen as supportive for the Japanese Yen (JPY).

The Euro (EUR) extends gains against the British Pound on Monday, following the release of a better-than-expected German IFO Business Climate report.

Societe Generale’s Dev Ashish analyzes Brazil after Lula’s surprise re-election over Flávio Bolsonaro. The note highlights likely pressure on Brazilian assets as markets unwind positions built on a Bolsonaro victory.

The Euro (EUR) trades higher against its peers on Monday. In the European trade, the major currency is slightly higher at around 1.1210 against the US Dollar, but has given back some of its early gains.

The AUD/USD pair pulls back slightly from a fresh one-month high touched earlier this Monday, failing to decisively break out through the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) pivotal resistance.

MUFG’s Derek Halpenny and Lee Hardman note the Euro has only modestly recovered after recent losses versus Pound and Japanese Yen, remaining the worst-performing G10 currency in October.

The US Dollar (USD) holds Friday’s gains against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Monday, with the USD/CHF pair standing comfortably at the 0.7250 area, and the two-week high at 0.7270 at a short distance.

The Euro (EUR) outperforms its major currency peers at the start of the week, trading 0.25% higher to near 176.10 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) during the European session.

The US Dollar (USD) ticks up against the Japanese Yen (JPY) at Monday’s European session open but, so far, remains capped below the bottom of the previous three-week trading range, with markets bidding their time ahead of key central bank decisions in the last half of the week.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann see AUD/USD biased slightly higher intraday after Friday’s consolidation, but expect any move to remain contained between 0.7010 and 0.7045. Over the next 1–3 weeks, they retain a positive view with scope toward 0.7070 while 0.6985 holds as strong support, contrasting with a longer-term bearish EMA signal targeting the 0.6923 July low.

Danske Bank strategists expects EUR/USD to move gradually lower from around 1.12.

NZD/USD moves little after posting modest gains in the previous trading day, hovering around 0.5700 during Asian hour on Monday.

MUFG’s Teppei Ino reviews USD/JPY price action over the week, noting the pair opened near 157.79 and briefly climbed as Oil prices and US rates rose on Middle East tensions.

The USD/CAD pair trades with mild gains near 1.4010 during the early European trading hours on Monday. A decline in crude oil prices weighs on the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) against the US Dollar (USD).

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann keep a constructive stance on GBP/USD, noting recent price action remains range-bound but within an overall positive bias.

Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen notes that EUR/USD has remained relatively stable as both the Euro and US Dollar have weakened broadly against other currencies.

The British Pound (GBP) gives back its early gains and flattens at around 1.3373 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Monday. The GBP/USD pair flattens as the US Dollar recovers some of its early losses.

The Indian Rupee (INR) holds on to Friday’s losses against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the week. The USD/INR pair ticks up to near 95.00 as the Indian currency faces pressure due to elevated oil prices.

The EUR/USD pair holds positive ground near 1.1220 during the early European trading hours on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) softens against the Euro (EUR) as US Treasury bond yields drop in extended rally.

The AUD/USD pair retreats slightly from a one-month high, touched earlier this Monday, though it lacks follow-through and holds above the 0.7000 psychological mark through the Asian session.

The AUD/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 110.35 during the early European session on Monday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Australian Dollar (AUD) as hawkish language may reinforce expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates this year.

USD/CHF depreciates after registering over 0.5% gains the previous day, trading around 0.8230 during Asian hours on Monday.

EUR/JPY gains ground after three days of losses, trading around 175.90 during Asian hours on Monday. Technical analysis of the daily chart shows the currency cross remains within a descending channel pattern, indicating a persistent bearish bias.