MUFG’s Lee Hardman highlights that EUR/USD is trading just above 1.1400, testing the bottom of its 1.1400–1.1800 range. The Euro has faced selling on weaker data and reduced ECB hike expectations, but recent indicators show resilience.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose notes that June Turkish Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data were better than expected as the energy shock faded, with headline CPI slowing to 32.1% year-on-year and PPI to 28.1%.

BNY’s Geoff Yu reports that Australia’s Melbourne Institute inflation gauge fell again in June, with both headline and trimmed mean measures easing.

ING’s Chris Turner says EUR/USD is consolidating above 1.1400 as markets reassess European Central Bank (ECB) and Fed paths, with a September ECB hike priced below 50% probability.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) has resumed its broader downtrend against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday following a mild relief last week.

HSBC strategists argue that the USD/JPY pair is trading near its highest level in around 40 years and may have shifted into a new, higher range.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) pares recent gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, as fresh frictions in the Middle East are dampening investors’ appetite for risk in an otherwise calm market session.

NZD/USD trades around 0.5680 at the time of writing, down 0.50% on the day as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains under pressure against a stronger US Dollar (USD).

MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes that the Japanese Yen (JPY) has weakened again, pushing USD/JPY back above 162.00 and coinciding with further selling at the long end of the JGB curve.

BNY’s Geoff Yu argues that European disinflation is allowing focus to shift from emergency inflation control toward growth and fiscal credibility.

Eurozone Retail Sales rises at a moderate pace of 0.2% Month-on-Month (MoM) in May against the estimates of 0.3%. In April, Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, declined by 0.4%.

Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) registered at 0.2%, below expectations (0.3%) in May

Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) above forecasts (5.7%) in May: Actual (5.9%)

Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) meets expectations (1.6%) in May

Eurozone Producer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0.2%) in May

Societe Generale strategists note USD/JPY has pulled back after testing resistance near 162.80 but is still holding above the March peak around 160.40.

The Euro (EUR) shows a moderately negative stance against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, in a calm start of the week.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang highlights that EUR/USD remains in a short-term range, with flat momentum indicators pointing to intraday consolidation between 1.1415 and 1.1455.

Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence increased to -3.1 in July from previous -13.4

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is trading moderately lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, as cooler Australian inflation figures have eased pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to hike interest rates further.

The GBP/JPY cross gains strong follow-through positive traction for the second successive day and rallies to mid-216.00s during the early European session on Monday, back closer to a multi-year peak set in late April.

ING’s Chris Turner highlights a sizeable downside breakout in EUR/GBP driven by stale Sterling shorts and lower FX volatility reducing appetite to pay carry.

Commerzbank notes that USD/INR eased 0.2% on Friday to 95.20 but still gained 0.9% over the week, remaining within a 94–96 range.

Here is what you need to know on Monday, July 6:

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang reports AUD/USD has stalled after last week’s sharp rise, with a tentative build-up in downside momentum pointing to a limited dip toward 0.6910 intraday. For the next 1–3 weeks, the bank stays neutral, expecting consolidation between 0.6870 and 0.6980.

BNY’s Geoff Yu expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25bp to 2.50%, supported by stronger Gross Domestic Product (GDP), resilient labor markets and firm inflation near the top of target.

The USD/CAD pair is seen building on last week's bounce from the vicinity of mid-1.4100s and gaining positive traction for the second consecutive day on Monday.

USD/JPY gains ground for the second successive day, trading around 162.20 during the early European hours on Monday. The currency pair is maintaining a bullish near-term bias as it holds comfortably above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).

MUFG’s Teppei Ino reviews recent USD/JPY price action, noting the pair opened near 161.78 and briefly tested the 162.84 area before reversing. The report highlights Dollar weakness after comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and a softer US employment report.

The British Pound (GBP) ticks lower against the  US Dollar (USD) Monday, attempting to close a seven-day rally, as tensions rise again in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the critical points in the peace process between Washington and Tehran.