Forex Today: Cautious start to week as markets focus on US tariff talks
Here is what you need to know on Monday, July 7:
Markets turn risk-averse at the beginning of the week as investors assess the latest headlines surrounding the United States' (US) tariff regime. The economic calendar will feature May Retail Sales data from the Eurozone on Monday. In the second half of the day, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will release Consumer Credit Change data for May.
US Dollar PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.27% | 0.32% | 0.65% | 0.42% | 0.78% | 0.85% | 0.26% | |
| EUR | -0.27% | 0.08% | 0.15% | 0.13% | 0.57% | 0.58% | -0.02% | |
| GBP | -0.32% | -0.08% | 0.06% | 0.07% | 0.50% | 0.52% | -0.21% | |
| JPY | -0.65% | -0.15% | -0.06% | -0.00% | 0.34% | 0.42% | -0.33% | |
| CAD | -0.42% | -0.13% | -0.07% | 0.00% | 0.38% | 0.44% | -0.29% | |
| AUD | -0.78% | -0.57% | -0.50% | -0.34% | -0.38% | 0.11% | -0.71% | |
| NZD | -0.85% | -0.58% | -0.52% | -0.42% | -0.44% | -0.11% | -0.72% | |
| CHF | -0.26% | 0.02% | 0.21% | 0.33% | 0.29% | 0.71% | 0.72% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
US President Donald Trump said over the weekend that they are close to finalizing several trade agreements in coming days and added that they will notify the countries, with which they haven't reached a deal yet, of tariff rates by July 9. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick explained that after tariff rates will be set on by July 9 but they will take effect on August 1. Meanwhile, Trump said that countries that align themselves with BRICS, an intergovernmental organization comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (founding members), Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates, will be subject to additional 10% tariffs, with no exceptions. It's important to note that the 17th BRICS summit is currently being held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Reflecting the cautious market mood, US stock index futures were last seen losing between 0.35% and 0.6%. In the meantime, the US Dollar (USD) Index stays in positive territory above 97.00 after ending the previous week marginally lower.
EUR/USD stays on the back foot and trades in negative territory at around 1.1750 on Monday. The data from Germany showed earlier in the day that Industrial Production expanded by 1.2% on a monthly basis in May, following the 1.6% contraction recorded in April.
AUD/USD declines sharply and trades at its lowest in nearly two weeks near 0.6500 on Monday. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce monetary policy decisions in the Asian session on Tuesday. Markets expect the RBA to lower its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.6%.
After gaining nearly 2% in the previous week, Gold turns south early Monday and declines toward $3,300.
GBP/USD starts the week under modest bearish pressure and retreats to the 1.3600 area.
USD/JPY gains traction on renewed USD strength and trades above 145.00 in the European morning on Monday.
Tariffs FAQs
Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas.
Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers.
There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs.
During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
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