USD/CHF treads water above 0.8000 as US Dollar holds ground due to market caution
- USD/CHF maintains its position as the US Dollar remains stable ahead of Producer Price Index data due on Wednesday.
- The Greenback may further appreciate as the June inflation report increased odds of the Fed maintaining current interest rate levels.
- The Swiss National Bank is expected to delay further monetary policy easing due to hot inflation data for June.
USD/CHF continues its winning streak for the third successive session, trading around 0.8020 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) remains stable, traders adopt caution ahead of the upcoming US Producer Price Index (PPI) later on Wednesday. The Fed Beige Book and Industrial Production will also be eyed.
Furthermore, the US Dollar may further appreciate following the June inflation report, which renewed concerns over the prospect of prolonged high interest rates from the Federal Reserve (Fed). The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 2.7% year-over-year in June, as expected. Core CPI came in at 2.9%, just below the 3.0% forecast but still notably above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
The market sentiment eases a little following Trump’s indication of willingness to further engage in trade discussions, indicating the possibility of negotiating with the European Union (EU) and other key trading partners.
However, Trump indicated on Tuesday is preparing to send tariff letters soon to smaller countries, including nations in Africa and the Caribbean, per Reuters. Trump further stated that his administration would likely set a tariff of "a little over 10%" for those countries.
Traders expect the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to delay further easing of monetary policy following the recent Swiss inflation report for June. SNB officials are expected to keep the interest rate unchanged at 0% in September, with many analysts projecting it will likely stay at that level through 2026.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
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