EUR/GBP retreats as BoE stays cautious, ECB easing widens policy gap
- EUR/GBP pulls back from Wednesday’s multi-week peak after BoE rate decision.
- Bank of England keeps rates unchanged at 4.25% amid stubborn inflation.
- UK inflation is expected to hover near 3.4% before easing toward 2% in 2026.
- Policy divergence between ECB and BoE weighs on the Euro.
The Euro (EUR) edges lower against the British Pound (GBP) on Thursday, snapping its recent winning streak after the Bank of England (BoE) held its key interest rate steady at 4.25% in its June policy meeting. The central bank’s decision, delivered against a backdrop of sticky inflation and global uncertainty, provided fresh support for the Sterling.
The EUR/GBP cross slips about 0.11% on the day, easing back from Wednesday’s multi-week high of 0.8456 to trade around 0.8540 during the American session. The Pound remains underpinned as traders digest the BoE’s cautious guidance on the outlook for rates and inflation.
The BoE voted 6–3 to hold the Bank Rate steady at 4.25%, with three members pushing for a 25-basis-point cut to 4.00% — a more dovish tilt than many investors had anticipated. This split highlights growing concern within the Monetary Policy Committee about signs of cooling in the UK labour market and slower wage growth, even as headline inflation remains above target. The Central bank stressed that policy decisions will continue to be guided by incoming data rather than a preset path, balancing the need to support growth while guarding against persistent inflation.
Governor Andrew Bailey acknowledged that although inflation has eased from previous highs, the outlook remains fragile due to lingering global supply risks and elevated energy prices. He cautioned that energy costs have risen again amid the deepening Middle East conflict, and stressed that the committee will remain vigilant about how this could affect the UK economy. Policymakers reiterated the “two-sided risks to inflation,” noting that the headline CPI rose to 3.4% in May from an adjusted 2.6% in March. The Bank projects inflation will hold near current levels for the rest of this year before gradually returning toward the 2% target in 2026, reinforcing the view that clearer signs of sustained disinflation are needed before rate cuts are back on the table.
The policy divergence between the Bank of England and the European Central Bank (ECB) remains a key driver for the EUR/GBP direction. While the BoE has chosen to keep rates steady at 4.25% and wait for clearer signs that inflation will return sustainably to target, the ECB has already moved to ease further. On June 5, the ECB cut its key rates by 25 basis points, lowering the deposit facility rate to 2.00%, amid evidence of disinflation across the currency bloc. This has reinforced market bets for at least one more cut before year-end. ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel emphasized the need for policy flexibility, citing persistent global uncertainties that could cloud the path for inflation. This contrast in policy paths favours the Pound over the Euro, keeping the EUR/GBP cross under mild pressure in the near term.
BoE FAQs
The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP).
When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling.
In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.
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