USD/CHF Price Forecast: Pushing against resistance in the 0.8020 area
- USD/CHF remains bid, testing resistance in the 0.8020 area.
- Strong US data strengthens the odds for a Fed pause and underpins demand for the USD.
- The pair is trading within a small ascending triangle pattern.
The US Dollar remains bid against a somewhat softer Swiss Franc, weighed by a brighter market sentiment on Thursday. The Greenback keeps its bullish trend from late December lows in play, but has so far been unable to find acceptance above the 0.8020 area.
In the US, strong November Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales figures added to the case of a significant recovery of the US economy in the past quarter of 2025, and cemented the view of a Federal Reserve monetary policy pause in the coming months.
Easing geopolitical concerns are weighing on safe assets, as the CHF, following US President Trump’s comments, about the receding repression against demonstrators in Iran, which has calmed concerns about a military action against the Islamic Republic.
Technical Analysis: USD/CHF is forming a small triangle pattern
In the 4-hour chart, USD/CHF trades at 0.8012, with resistance around the 0.8020 area holding bulls and a sequence of higher lows forming an ascending triangle pattern, a figure often leading to a positive outcome.
Technical indicators are showing a mild bullish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (14) sits at 59.6, above the 50 midline, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) flattens around the zero line, reinforcing a neutral tone.
A confirmation above the mentioned 0.8020 area would give bulls hopes to retest December's peak, in the area of 0.8080, which is coincident with the triangle pattern's measured target. On the downside, trendline support is at 0.8000. Further down, a breach of Wednesday¡'s low, at 0.7985, cancels the bullish view and brings the weekly lows, at 0.7956, into focus.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
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