U.S. Q2 earnings season is coming, JPMorgan and Citi are the first to appear

TradingKey - Last week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hit new highs, but under Trump's latest tariff offensive, all three major indexes recorded weekly declines. This week, the United States will release the unadjusted CPI annual rate for June. Investors also hope to get a glimpse of the impact of tariff policies on economic fundamentals from this week's inflation report. Retail sales released on Thursday will be another highlight, which will show changes in consumer spending. In the stock market, the US stock Q2 earnings season kicked off, and JPMorgan Chase (JPM-US), Citigroup (C-US), Wells Fargo (WFC-US), Goldman Sachs (GS-US) and others will be the first to release their results before the market opens on Tuesday. There will also be results from ASML and TSMC on Wednesday and Thursday. It is worth mentioning that when TSMC released its first quarter report in April, its optimistic guidance led to a rebound in chip stocks.

Preview of major events

Q2 earnings season for US companies: How will companies perform in the first earnings season under the tariff war?

Bank stocks will be the first to report earnings, mainly on Tuesday and Wednesday, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM-US), Citigroup (C-US), Bank of America (BAC-US), Goldman Sachs (GS-US), Wells Fargo (WFC-US), and Morgan Stanley (MS-US). In terms of technology stocks, ASML and TSMC will release earnings reports. Other companies such as Johnson & Johnson (JNJ-US) and 3M (MMM-US) will also disclose their results.

Ned Davis Research analysts said that the proportion of S&P 500 companies whose profits exceeded market expectations rose to 78% in the first quarter, stopping the decline for three consecutive quarters. "If the ratio reaches a level above 70% again, it means that companies not only understand tariffs, but also understand the broader environment."

U.S. June CPI is released, and more monetary policy signals will emerge

On Tuesday, the United States released the June CPI data. On the 16th, the June PPI data was released. Last month, the US consumer price index continued its downward trend, with the May CPI up 2.4% year-on-year and the core CPI up 0.1% month-on-month, falling short of expectations for the fourth consecutive month.

Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos believes that the inflation data in the next few months will provide key tests: first, whether tariffs will push up inflation, and second, if inflation deviates from expectations (whether high or low), whether there will be disagreements within the Fed on the response strategy. The latest Fed minutes show that most officials believe that tariffs may continue to push up inflation, and they need to be patient in adjusting interest rates.

US releases June retail sales data

On Thursday, the 17th, the United States released June retail data. Last month's data showed that U.S. retail sales in May fell by the largest amount since March 2023, mainly dragged down by a decline in car purchases. The previous value was revised from 0.1% to -0.1%. The previous rush to avoid price increases caused by potential tariffs has subsided.

Barclays expects that goods subject to the 30% higher tariff will arrive at U.S. ports in late June or early July and enter stores at the end of July for the back-to-school season, so the broader tariff-related price increase effects will begin to appear from June to July. Although the May CPI data was mild, the price transmission effect caused by tariffs is about to appear, and the core CPI is expected to rise to 3.6% due to tariffs.

The Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book on economic conditions

On Thursday, the 17th, the Federal Reserve released the Beige Book on economic conditions. The high uncertainty of Trump's tariffs is having a chain reaction on the US economy. The previous report pointed out that costs and prices are expected to rise at a faster rate in the future, and the economic outlook remains "slightly pessimistic and uncertain." The report said: "All regions reported high levels of economic and policy uncertainty, which led businesses and households to be cautious and wait-and-see when making decisions."

US President Trump has imposed tariffs on many US imports and threatened to impose higher tariffs on major US trading partners. In the last issue of the Beige Book, the word "tariff" appeared 122 times, compared with 107 times in the previous issue; the word "uncertainty" and its variations appeared 80 times.

Selected Economic Data

Tuesday、U.S. June unadjusted CPI annual rate

Wednesday、 U.S. June PPI annual rate

Thursday、U.S. June retail sales monthly rate

This week's featured events

On Monday、US President Trump delivered a speech.

On Tuesday、Bank of England Governor Bailey and Chancellor of the Exchequer Reeves delivered speeches at a dinner at the Mayor of London's Residence.

On Wednesday、Nvidia CEO Huang Renxun held a media briefing in Beijing

Company Financial Report

Tuesday、JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N), Citigroup (C.N), Wells Fargo (WFC.N), BlackRock (BLK.N)

Wednesday、Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N), Morgan Stanley (MS.N), Bank of America (BAC.N), ASML (ASML.O), Goldman Sachs (GS.N)

Thursday、TSMC (TSM.N), PepsiCo (PEP.O), Netflix (NFLX.O)

Friday、Charles Schwab (SCHW.N), 3M (MMM.N)