On Monday, US and European equity futures eased, putting pressure on Asian stocks as fresh US tariff warnings rattled investors.
Many market investors remained optimistic that President Donald Trump’s recent threats were largely rhetoric, even as he prepared to roll out new duties next month.
On Saturday, Trump announced plans to impose a 30% tariffs on most imports from the European Union and Mexico beginning August 1.Brussels agreed to hold off on retaliatory measures through early August and urged continued talks, while Germany’s finance minister warned they’d hit back hard if the tariffs move forward.
Investors have grown accustomed to the swings in US trade policy according to a Reuters report.
“It is hard to say whether the muted market response is best characterized by resilience or complacency,” said Taylor Nugent, the head economist for markets at National Australia Bank. He added that it remains difficult to predict where duties might land while negotiations remain open.
The MSCI index for Asia-Pacific markets ex-Japan held steady, whereas Tokyo’s Nikkei dropped 0.3%.
Mainland Chinese large-cap shares, tracked by the CSI 300, gained 0.3% after June exports unexpectedly climbed 5.8% year-on-year, even as shipments bound for the U.S. declined by almost 10%. Data on consumer spending, factory production and GDP are scheduled for release on Tuesday.
European futures also underperformed, with the EURO STOXX 50 off 0.6%, DAX contracts down 0.7%, and FTSE futures slipping 0.1%.
Meanwhile, U.S. equity futures softened, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq contracts each retreating about 0.4% as investors braced for the start of earnings season, with major banks reporting on Tuesday.
LSEG IBES data suggests S&P 500 companies likely saw earnings rise around 5.8% year-over-year in the recent quarter, trailing the 10.2% gain anticipated at the beginning of April. Strategists at Bank of America argue that, given the subdued revenue forecast, firms might outperform by roughly two percentage points. It is below both the long-term average of three points and the six-point overperformance seen last quarter, even as consensus growth estimates ease to approximately 4% from the prior period’s 13%.
Treasuries attract safety demand as Trump puts pressure on Powell
Investors shifted into safer U.S. government bonds, keeping the 10-year Treasury yield around 4.41%. Short-rate futures ticked up, suggesting investors expect only a handful of rate reductions over the coming year.
Even as Fed Chair Jerome Powell maintains a cautious stance on cuts, the president has intensified demands for more rapid monetary easing.
White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett hinted that the president could consider replacing Powell amid budget overruns on the Fed’s building overhaul. On Sunday, the president said it “would be a great thing” should Powell elect to step aside.
Attention now shifts to Tuesday’s June consumer price report, which may provide the first glimpse of any inflationary push from the tariffs.
Many retailers are still selling stock they bought before the tariffs, and some companies are covering the extra costs themselves to keep sales steady. Later this week, producer and import price reports will show how much supply-chain costs are rising, and new retail-sales data will reveal whether consumers are still spending.
Dollar remains steady while commodities remained mixed
In currency markets, the euro eased 0.1% to $1.1685, retreating from highs near $1.1830 reached last week.
The U.S. dollar fell 0.2% versus the yen to 147.15, with its trade-weighted gauge unchanged at 97.882. It did edge up 0.2% against the Mexican peso to roughly 18.6710, as President Claudia Sheinbaum remained optimistic that an agreement could be finalized ahead of the early-August cutoff.
Gold saw a modest haven lift, inching 0.1% higher to about $3,359 an ounce, while oil gained support amid talk of possible U.S. sanctions on Russian shipments. Brent futures increased 0.2% to $70.47 per barrel, and U.S. crude ticked 0.1% to $68.55.
Investors turned to gold again as a safe haven. Spot gold traded just under $3,370 an ounce after a 0.6% gain last week, as trading partners rushed to strike deals before the deadline. The president sent letters to leaders like Claudia Sheinbaum, Ursula von der Leyen, Canada’s and Brazil’s officials outlining possible new tariff rates.
Year-to-date, the metal is up over 25%, touching an all-time high beyond $3,500 in April. Market participants attribute the uptick to geopolitical unease and sustained purchases by central banks.
As of 7:13 a.m. in Singapore, spot gold had climbed 0.5% to $3,372.75 an ounce, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index up 0.1%. Silver traded close to its strongest mark since 2011, while platinum and palladium experienced modest pullbacks.
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