HSBC plans to buy back shares, but the Hang Seng Index loses the key support level of 20,000 points

In July, Caixin China Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.2, lower than the expected 50.3 and last month's 50.5. The data reflects a faster-than-expected contraction in mainland small and medium-sized manufacturing businesses.

The Hang Seng Index (HSI) opened higher on Tuesday but quickly reversed its gains. It reached a high of 20,331.28 points at 10:05 am before sharply declining to 20,100 levels at 11 am. In the afternoon, HSBC Holdings (0005) announced a 22.4% average return on tangible equity for the first half of 2023, higher than last year's 10.6%. This positive performance led to a 1.69% increase in HSBC's stock price at the market close. However, due to the lack of a share buyback plan by its subsidiary, Hang Seng Bank (0011), their stock price declined. Coupled with a softening in the real estate sector and other mainland Chinese stocks, the HSI trend weakened, reaching a low of 19,891.81 points at 14:19. The overall daily volatility was 439.47 points.

The Hang Seng Index closed with a bearish candle, briefly falling below the 20,000-point mark before closing within the Bollinger Bands channel. Overbought conditions eased slightly. The MACD bullish divergence narrowed. There were 666 advancing stocks and 998 declining stocks throughout the day, indicating overall weak market conditions.

Fitch Ratings downgraded the credit rating of the United States from "AAA" to "AA+" due to expectations of worsening fiscal conditions over the next three years and increasing government debt burden. However, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen disagreed with Fitch's rating, stating that it was based on outdated data.

The three major US stock indices have shown mixed performance, with the Dow Jones rising while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 falling.

Futures and ADRs declined, indicating a lower opening for the Hang Seng Index. Support can be found around the levels of 19800 / 19500.

HSBC Holdings (0005) is one of the world's largest banks and financial services institutions.

The group announced a mid-year revenue increase of $12.3 billion to $36.9 billion in 2023, primarily driven by higher net interest income from global operations due to rising interest rates, as well as the impact of planned divestments in France and acquisitions in the UK. The net interest margin increased by 46 basis points to 1.7%. Pre-tax profit increased by $12.9 billion to $21.7 billion, including a reversal of impairment charges of $2.1 billion related to the planned sale of the French retail banking business and a temporary accounting gain of $1.5 billion from the acquisition of Silicon Valley Bank UK. Reported benchmark post-tax profit increased by $9.1 billion to $18.1 billion.

The average annualized return on tangible equity is 22.4%, while it was 10.6% in the first half of 2022. Excluding the impact of the planned sale in France and the acquisition in the UK (on an annualized basis), the average annualized return on tangible equity is 18.5%.

The company plans to pay a second dividend of $0.1 per share and intends to repurchase up to $2 billion worth of shares, which is expected to support the stock price.

The company's stock price has recently shown improvement and there are signals in the financial technology system. The company's valuation is at the median level among peers, so it should be observed. With a valuation of 12 times earnings, the target price is $69.88.

The author is a licensed individual of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission and does not hold the aforementioned shares. The above article represents personal opinions.