Pop Mart Profit Rockets 350%+ in H1, Revenue Outstrips Full-Year Results; Investment Banks in Frenzy

TradingKey - Pop Mart's performance forecast for the first half of 2025 suggests that its commercial expansion is exceeding expectations.

According to the announcement, for the six months ending June 30, the group's revenue is expected to grow by no less than 200%, surpassing RMB 13.5 billion. This figure not only represents significant growth compared to the entire revenue scale of RMB 13.04 billion in 2024 but also demonstrates the robust, explosive potential of its business model.

The profit figures are equally impressive. After adjustments, net profit is projected to reach RMB 4.6 billion, marking a remarkable year-on-year increase of 350% compared to RMB 960 million in the first half of 2024. This far exceeds the adjusted net profit level of RMB 3.4 billion for all of 2024.

Pop Mart's globalization strategy has proven highly effective, with leading IPs like LABUBU continuously unleashing market potential. This series, characterized by its cultural symbolism, has generated a phenomenon-level impact among young consumers both domestically and internationally, becoming a hallmark engine driving significant performance growth.

At the same time, the contribution rate from overseas markets has elevated to a strategic level, optimizing regional revenue structures and directly leading to improvements in both gross margin and operating profit margin while significantly enhancing profitability through economies of scale.

Based on Pop Mart's strong first-half performance, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have both raised their earnings forecasts for the company.

JPMorgan has increased its revenue forecast for 2025 from RMB 28.011 billion to RMB 30.385 billion, projecting an annual growth rate of 133%. They have also adjusted their earnings per share estimate from RMB 6.10 to RMB 7.15 and raised their target price to HKD 340 while maintaining an "Overweight" rating.

Goldman Sachs has revised its revenue estimate for 2025 from RMB 29.4 billion to RMB 32.8 billion and raised its net profit forecast from RMB 8.2 billion to RMB 10 billion, representing increases of approximately 11.7% and 22.2%, respectively.

Despite exceeding earnings expectations, the market reacted calmly. Pop Mart closed at HKD 252.6 on the 16th, falling over 4% in a single day. Goldman Sachs noted in its latest report that while the results surpassed sell-side forecasts, they were "only in line with buy-side high expectations." JPMorgan added that, given the stock’s sharp rally over the past months, short-term profit-taking pressure is anticipated.

(Source: Yahoo Finance)