Here's the Average Stock Market Return in the Last 15 Years and What Wall Street Expects in 2025

In total, more than 5,400 companies are listed on United States stock exchanges, according to the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA). Many of those companies are grouped into various indexes, such as the Nasdaq Composite or the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

However, the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) is widely considered the best benchmark for the overall U.S. stock market due to its scope and diversity. Read on to see the index's average annual return over the last 15 years and to learn what Wall Street expects in the remaining months of 2025.

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The S&P 500 returned 434%, excluding dividends, in the last 15 years (11.8% annually)

In 1926, the Standard Statistics Company developed a stock market index that tracked 90 domestic equities. The number of included stocks gradually increased over the years until reaching 500 in March 1957, at which point the index became known as the S&P 500.

Today, companies must meet certain eligibility requirements to be included in the index, including GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) profitability in the most recent four quarters, a minimum market value of $20.5 billion, and a sufficiently liquid stock. The index is rebalanced quarterly, but stocks can be added at any time. Most recently, Coinbase Global joined the S&P 500 on May 19.

The 10 largest holdings are listed by weight below:

1. Microsoft: 7%
2. Nvidia: 7%
3. Apple: 5.8%
4. Amazon: 4%
5. Alphabet: 3.6%
6. Meta Platforms: 3%
7. Broadcom: 2.3%
8. Tesla: 1.7%
9. Berkshire: 1.7%
10. JPMorgan Chase: 1.5%

Excluding dividends, the S&P 500 returned 434% over the last 15 years, compounding at 11.8% annually. Inclusive of dividends, the S&P 500 returned 609% over the last 15 years, compounding at 13.9% annually. That period covers a broad range of economic and market environments, so similar returns are plausible in the next 15 years.

What Wall Street expects from the U.S. stock market in 2025

The S&P 500 soared when President Donald Trump won the presidential election in November, and the index stayed on an upward trajectory until the administration rattled investors with its aggressive trade policies. After President Trump explained his "Liberation Day" tariffs in early April, the S&P 500 declined 10.5% in two trading days, the fifth-largest two-day loss in history.

Surprisingly, the benchmark index has nearly recouped its losses. Corporate earnings were much better than expected in the first quarter, and the economy has been resilient so far, despite the fastest tariff hike in history. Wall Street analysts initially reacted to the turmoil by lowering their S&P 500 forecasts for 2025, but many have upwardly revised their estimates in recent months, though most still see less upside than they did pre-tariffs.

Shown below are the year-end forecasts for the S&P 500 set by 17 Wall Street investment banks and research organizations, as well as the implied upside (or downside) compared to its current level.

Data source: Yahoo Finance. Year-end targets and implied upside (downside) shown are current as of June 9.

As shown above, the median year-end target for the S&P 500 is 6,100 among 17 Wall Street investment banks and research organizations. That forecast implies about 2% upside from the current level of 5,968.

Importantly, the median year-end forecast from the same 17 institutions was 6,600 back in December 2024. At the time, the consensus among economists said U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) would grow 2.1% in 2025, but that figure has been revised down to 1.4% due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.

Accordingly, Wall Street analysts have downwardly revised S&P 500 earnings estimates, as detailed below:

• Q2 2025: The consensus estimate currently calls for 5.7% earnings growth, a downward revision from 12% in January.
• Q3 2025: The consensus estimate currently calls for 7.8% earnings growth, a downward revision from 13.1% in January.
• Q4 2025: The consensus estimate currently calls for 6.1% earnings growth, a downward revision from 17.3% in January.

Here's the big picture: The stock market is undoubtedly in a precarious position today. The White House has imposed sweeping tariffs that many economists expect to raise prices and slow economic growth. That is a clear source of downside risk for the S&P 500 in the near term, given the index is near its record high.

However, investors must remember that the index has recovered from every past drawdown, and it returned 11.8% annually (excluding dividends) over the last 15 years despite one recession and two bear markets. So, while the future is uncertain in the near term, history says investors who patiently buy and hold quality stocks will be well rewarded in the long term.

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HSBC Holdings is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Bank of America is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Wells Fargo is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Randi Zuckerberg, a former director of market development and spokeswoman for Facebook and sister to Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Citigroup is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Trevor Jennewine has positions in Amazon, Nvidia, and Tesla. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Bank of America, Berkshire Hathaway, Goldman Sachs Group, JPMorgan Chase, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends Barclays Plc, Broadcom, Coinbase Global, and HSBC Holdings and recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.