Can Amazon Stock Double by 2030?

The stock of Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) has delivered life-changing gains for investors who got in early enough. It's up nearly 200,000% over its lifetime and 900% over the past 10 years.

Everyone is talking about what it's doing in artificial intelligence (AI) today and how that could jump-start sales growth. There's a huge long-term opportunity, but can Amazon stock double over the next five years?

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Image source: Amazon.

Growth drivers everywhere

With all of the AI hype, let's not forget that Amazon's main business, for now at least, is e-commerce, where sales were $94 billion in the 2025 first quarter, accounting for more than 60% of total revenue.

The company has a hold on U.S. e-commerce, and it's taking many actions to protect that moat and keep its dominant spot. Its Prime members count on that part of the business for their essentials purchases and more. It controls about 40% of the total U.S. e-commerce market, with the next-highest competitor, Walmart, at only around 6%.

CEO Andy Jassy said that although it could be affected by new tariffs, shoppers tend to choose retailers they trust when there's uncertainty. And its huge base of sellers and product assortment mean that shoppers are likely to find the items they need at the price they want on its platform.

As usual, Amazon reported increasing delivery speed in the 2025 first quarter, and it has made a number of changes to its logistics network to keep that up. It changed from a national network to a regional one, it keeps more of its highest-selling products closer to more shoppers, and uses AI throughout its business to determine fast and cheap shipping options.

The company is testing new processes in a pilot distribution center that's cutting 25% of processing time and is on track to deliver 25% cost savings at peak times.

E-commerce overall is expected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% through 2029, according to Statista, and as the leader in the industry, much of that will land on Amazon's platform.

Beyond e-commerce, the company has launched a hugely successful advertising business that leverages its unmatched e-commerce platform for consumer exposure to ads. It also now offers an ad-supported streaming tier on Prime Video through its ad business, with strong results so far.

The next tech frontier

The company sees its biggest opportunities right now in AI, which it has used in e-commerce for years to determine consumer preferences and show products that shoppers are looking for. That leads to greater sales conversion and lower returns, since consumers find what they actually want. It takes that a step further by showing side-by-side comparisons on price and features.

But the breakout segment is Amazon Web Services (AWS), its cloud computing business, which has been an incredible growth driver for years. And although sales have drastically decelerated over the past few years from percentage growth in the 30s to the mid to high teens, AWS is still responsible for the majority of total company operating income -- 63% in the first quarter. It's also where management is releasing its generative AI business, which it sees as the wave of the future.

The AI operation is already a multibillion-dollar business, but management sees it going much higher. As the technology becomes a standard component of all app development, more business clients will need to get onto the cloud, where most of the app development is happening.

Amazon has a lead in cloud services, with 30% of the market, and this should provide a boost for AWS in addition to exploding as its own business.

How high can Amazon stock go?

Assuming the stock maintains its current valuation, doubling in price means doubling revenue. To double revenue in five years, it would need to increase sales by a CAGR of only 6%, which is lower than its current growth.

Not only is it possible for the stock to double over the next five years, but it also can do it even faster if its CAGR is higher than 6%, or if its valuation goes up. The stock is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 35, close to its lows, giving it room for some valuation expansion. In any case, Amazon looks like a solid bet for growth over the next five years.

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John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Jennifer Saibil has positions in Walmart. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon and Walmart. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.