Where Will IonQ Stock Be in 1 Year?

One area of artificial intelligence (AI) that's beginning to come into the mainstream is a concept known as quantum computing. While it's still years away from becoming commercially adopted, big tech companies such as Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft are all exploring ways to integrate this technology into their AI ecosystems. That said, big tech hasn't fetched much attention in the quantum computing landscape.

Instead, investors appear more interested in emerging opportunities, such as Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and IonQ (NYSE: IONQ). Over the last year, shares of IonQ have soared by 130%. Can IonQ stock continue to beat the market? Read on to find out.

Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Learn More »

The rise of IonQ has been impressive

IonQ's website lists a number of high-profile customers and partners, including the likes of Nvidia, Microsoft Azure, Amazon Web Services (AWS), Google Cloud Platform (GCP), Lockheed Martin, and General Dynamics.

This impressive customer roster, combined with rising interest in quantum computing against the backdrop of a bullish AI narrative, sent shares of IonQ parabolic.

IONQ data by YCharts.

While some lucky investors profited handsomely from these jaw-dropping returns, volatility of this magnitude can be risky. Instead of chasing momentum in the hopes of buying in before the next wave, let's take a hard look at IonQ's financial profile to assess whether this price action is even warranted.

Image source: Getty Images.

IonQ is burning heaps of cash

You'd think working with major cloud hyperscalers, such as Microsoft, Alphabet, or Amazon, would lead to some impressive growth prospects for IonQ. However, as of now, the company's underlying financial picture is pretty uninspiring. The table below summarizes IonQ's revenue and earnings over the last few years:

Data source: Investor Relations. EBITDA = earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.

Although IonQ has managed to double its revenue each year since 2022, the company's net income burn has risen almost sevenfold, and EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) losses have more than doubled during that same period. Per the company's latest financial guidance, management is forecasting further adjusted EBITDA losses of $120 million for this year.

My prediction for IonQ stock one year from now

Given IonQ's consistent and growing burn rate over the last several years, it's not too surprising to see the company's cash balance diminishing.

IONQ Cash and Short Term Investments (Quarterly) data by YCharts.

Developing quantum computing services requires considerable investment in infrastructure and engineering talent. As the trends above show, IonQ's revenue growth isn't growing at a fast enough clip to account for the company's expense profile. Furthermore, management's anticipation of even more losses this year signals to me that it's going to be quite some time before IonQ is generating positive unit economics and can actually reinvest cash flow back into the business.

Bearing all that in mind, I think liquidity will become an issue for IonQ sooner rather than later. My prediction is that the company may choose to raise funds at its current inflated valuation before the stock possibly sells off too much. If such an event happens, share dilution could cause some investors to lose enthusiasm or simply realize that IonQ's actual business results are disconnected from the share price appreciation.

For these reasons, I think IonQ stock will be trading at a considerably lower valuation one year from now than it is today. If you're an investor curious about quantum computing, I'd encourage you to own big tech stocks, such as Amazon, Alphabet, or Microsoft, over speculative high-flyers like IonQ.

Should you invest $1,000 in IonQ right now?

Before you buy stock in IonQ, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and IonQ wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $721,394!*

Stock Advisor provides investors with an easy-to-follow blueprint for success, including guidance on building a portfolio, regular updates from analysts, and two new stock picks each month. The Stock Advisor service has more than quadrupled the return of S&P 500 since 2002*. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of March 18, 2025

John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Adam Spatacco has positions in Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool recommends Lockheed Martin and recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.