CBRS Jumps Toward $120.70 After Cerebras Forecasts Tripled Revenue in 2027

TradingKey - Cerebras Systems (NASDAQ: CBRS) fell 3.29% to $97.75 on Thursday, November 12, before its third-quarter report after the close. The stock then jumped about 18% after hours, and overnight trading sits at $115.40.

Even after that jump, the stock remains about 38% below its $185 IPO price from May, when it opened at $350 on its first day. At Thursday's close, it was down 47.2% from the IPO price.

A $161.2 Million GAAP Loss, but a First Core Profit

Cerebras reports GAAP results, which follow standard accounting rules, and "core" results, which add back stock-based pay and the cost of warrants given to customers and leave out pass-through revenue. Warrants are rights to buy shares, and Cerebras deducts their cost from revenue.

On a GAAP basis, revenue rose 55% to $210.8 million, slightly below the $214.7 million FactSet estimate, and the net loss was $161.2 million, or $0.67 a share. Gross margin, the share of revenue left after production costs, was only 20.0%. Core revenue rose 70% to $230.9 million, core gross margin was 41.0%, and core net income was $29.8 million, the first positive result since the IPO. The gap comes mostly from $155.1 million of stock-based pay and $36.4 million of customer warrant costs.

Cloud and services revenue jumped 265% to $141.9 million on a GAAP basis, while hardware revenue fell to $68.9 million from $96.8 million a year earlier.

The Guidance Drove the Jump

A $161.2 million GAAP loss and a small revenue miss did not stop the stock from rising about 18% after hours, because investors looked straight to the outlook. Cerebras guided fourth-quarter core revenue to $310 million to $330 million. By my calculation, the midpoint is about 39% above third-quarter core revenue. It also raised its 2026 core revenue guide to $940 million to $960 million, from $880 million to $890 million, and expects a core operating margin near break-even in the fourth quarter.

CEO Andrew Feldman said the company expects to "triple revenue in 2027," which would mean about $2.85 billion based on this year's guidance midpoint. Remaining performance obligations, contracted revenue not yet booked, reached $26.1 billion, and Cerebras has 700 megawatts of data center capacity secured for delivery by the end of 2027. Microsoft signed on as a cloud customer, Oracle plans to launch a Cerebras inference service in 2027, and the company announced a cloud deal with an unnamed top-three hyperscaler.

The Risks Behind the Backlog

Much of the backlog rests on OpenAI, whose take-or-pay contract covers 750 megawatts. Management said data center delays led to delay credits that were deducted from the backlog, and it expects cancellation exposure this year to be under 5% of committed megawatts. It also expects cloud revenue to be flat from the third quarter to the fourth. The IPO lockup releases, which had stopped early investors from selling, were complete as of November 9, so that overhang has passed. Cerebras holds about $7.8 billion in cash, restricted cash and short-term investments.

Cerebras Technical Analysis: Daily Close Above $120.70 Could Open $132.45

That reaction shows up clearly on the daily chart. Buyers had already lifted the stock off the $77.58 low and broken the falling trendline from late October, a line drawn across its lower highs. If the overnight gain holds, the stock would clear $104.24, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, the point where 61.8% of the earlier drop would be recovered. That level has capped every rebound this month.

RSI, a momentum gauge that runs from 0 to 100, sits near 37 based on Thursday's close, above its signal line. The MACD, another momentum indicator, has turned positive, which shows momentum is shifting toward buyers.

CBRS Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

If the overnight gain carries into the session, the next hurdle is $120.70, the late-October high. A daily close above it could open $132.45, followed by $147.35. Falling back below $104.24, however, would weaken the move and expose $94.04.

I'm bullish while Cerebras holds above $104.24, with $120.70 as the key breakout level.

Key Levels

• Last close: $97.75, down 3.29% on Thursday, November 12 (overnight: $115.40)
• Support: $104.24, $94.04, $77.58
• Resistance: $120.70, $132.45, $147.35
• RSI: 37.11
• Bullish trigger: Daily close above $120.70
• Bearish trigger: Daily close below $104.24

FAQs

Why did Cerebras stock rise after a GAAP loss?

Investors focused on guidance. Cerebras guided fourth-quarter core revenue to $310 million to $330 million, raised its 2026 outlook and said it expects to triple revenue in 2027, backed by a $26.1 billion backlog.

What is the Cerebras stock forecast now?

The bias is bullish while CBRS holds above $104.24. A daily close above $120.70, the late-October high, could open $132.45 and $147.35, while a drop below $104.24 would expose $94.04.

Bottom Line

Cerebras gave investors a reason to look past the GAAP loss, but the stock still trades far below its IPO price and the 2027 plan depends on delivering data center capacity on time. The level that matters is $120.70. In my view, a daily close above it would confirm the breakout, while a slip back below $104.24 would turn the overnight jump into another failed rebound.