Nio’s Deliveries Are Up 38.5% This Year. But It Just Hit a Speed Bump.

Nio (NYSE:NIO) has delivered plenty of growth this year. Unfortunately, as investors likely know all too well, past success does not guarantee future results.

Image source: Author using ChatGPT for editing. Information source: Nio SEC filings.

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Not included in that graphic are October deliveries, which totaled 34,246 vehicles, down 15.2% from a year earlier, even as deliveries through the first 10 months remained up 38.5%. That's a pretty wide gap between the progress already made and the latest performance.

We've previously examined weaknesses in ONVO deliveries, Nio's family-oriented brand. October adds another concern: The premium Nio brand also lost ground compared with September. Let's dig into why that deserves arguably more attention.

The latest speed bump

Again, in a familiar story, Onvo deliveries fell approximately 51.7% to 8,383 vehicles, offsetting growth of 5.7% at premium Nio and 30.9% at Firefly, its compact-car brand.

Sequentially, the story changes

Premium Nio deliveries declined from 21,318 to 18,125, a roughly 15% drop. Onvo slipped by 380 vehicles, while Firefly added 411. That means the premium brand's 3,193-vehicle decline drove the overall company's 3,162-vehicle decline.

In other words, ONVO explains the year-over-year shortfall and the namesake Nio brand explains the latest month-to-month setback. Those are different comparisons, and investors need to keep both in view.

Nio's Onvo L90 driving out of a battery swap station. Image source: Nio Inc.

Keep perspective

To be fair, last October was a demanding comparison. Nio set a company-wide monthly delivery record a year ago, while ONVO's L90 exceeded 10,000 deliveries for a third consecutive month following its late-July 2025 launch. To be fair, a second time, that helps explain the tough annual comparison, but it doesn't explain why premium-brand deliveries fell from this September, outside of possible seasonality.

As we know, one monthly decline doesn't establish a trend, nor does a single quarter. Nio's October release doesn't provide a detailed explanation separating customer demand from production or deliveries. Investors shouldn't turn an unexplained decline into a red flag. It's just important to note comparisons and keep unusual changes in perspective.

What it all means

The next delivery updates need to show whether premium Nio can regain momentum while ONVO works to stabilize – a rebound would make October look less concerning. Continued weakness across both brands would make the growth story harder to defend. It would arguably be the first sign of weakness from Nio's deliveries despite the ongoing competition and intense price war in China's domestic market – its margins and deliveries have so far been resilient.

Another thing to look at: selling more premium vehicles only helps profitability if their pricing and costs leave enough money behind. Deteriorating margins along with a decline in deliveries would combine for a tougher quarter. Nio's strong year-to-date growth deserves credit, but shareholders shouldn't let it hide a fresh slowdown in the business they're counting on to keep that growth going.

Daniel Miller has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.