SpaceX Stock Price Forecast: Plunges 9% in a Day to Near August Low, Risks Drop to $100 Mark

TradingKey - SpaceX valuation plunges, tumbling 9% in a single day to approach August lows, with markets watching the $100 psychological support level.

On November 5, Eastern Time, SpaceX (SPCX) shares suffered an explosive single-day plunge of 9.05%, relentlessly breaking below the $130 threshold intraday to hit a low of $120.39, as single-day trading volume surged to 167 million shares. This price has directly approached the interim low of August 2026, bringing the monthly pullback to over 20%.

Since early October, SpaceX shares have drifted steadily downward from their high of $175. This month-long decline was not triggered by an isolated event, but rather by the confluence of multiple factors: a dramatic shift in the political landscape following the U.S. midterm elections, massive CapEx pressures under an elevated valuation, and selling pressure from early shareholders ahead of lockup expirations.

Since mid-October, reports disclosed that SpaceX entered into an AI GPU lease financing agreement worth up to $40 billion with private equity firms to power Starlink's computing connectivity. This sparked Wall Street concerns over strained free cash flow and potential equity dilution, prompting capital to initiate a concentrated squeeze on high-P/S tech stocks.

On November 3, 2026, U.S. midterm election results showed the Democrats retaking the House of Representatives and securing control of the Senate. Markets worry that the new Congress will intensify budgetary and ethical scrutiny over SpaceX's major federal contracts, including U.S. Department of Defense national security launch contracts, NASA's Artemis lunar program funding, and the FCC's reassessment of Starlink rural broadband subsidies. This shifting political landscape has eroded the market's previous 'policy premium.'

Furthermore, as SpaceX reached a certain post-listing duration, the approaching lockup expiration window for early venture capital (VC) funds, internal executives, and cornerstone investors created significant anticipatory hedging sell-offs. This led to consecutive sell orders in the spot market, triggering quantitative stop-loss selling after the stock broke below its $135 IPO subscription price.

From the perspective of shareholding structure and technical patterns, SPCX, after breaking below the $135 IPO subscription price, is currently in a bearish alignment, searching for a swing bottom and testing the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement support. If SPCX can demonstrate strong spot dip-buying around $120, the stock will have an opportunity to halt its decline and mount a fresh rally.

SpaceX stock price chart, Source: TradingView

If post-election risk-off sentiment across U.S. tech stocks continues to spread, particularly if Democrats launch investigations or curb the pace of AI development, SPCX could relentlessly break through key support at $120. Technically, this would trigger a secondary wave of follow-on selling, sending the stock down to test the $100.00 round-number threshold and historical lows.