Palantir Stock Forecast: PLTR Breaks Its Channel as Slowing Deal Signings Overshadow 96% Growth

TradingKey - Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR) fell to about $169.90 in overnight trading after its third-quarter report on Monday, November 2, even though revenue grew 96%, its fastest pace ever. The stock had already fallen 3.13% to $178.34 in the regular session before the results, closing near its low of the day.

Shares first jumped about 5% after hours on the beat and a raised full-year outlook, then reversed as attention turned to new business. Total contract value, or TCV, the value of deals signed in the quarter, grew only 6%, and that is now the number investors are watching.

Q3 Beat on Every Headline Number

Revenue rose 96% to $2.31 billion, above the roughly $2.18 billion expected, and adjusted EPS came in at $0.44 against a $0.41 estimate. The adjusted operating margin, the share of revenue left as operating profit after removing items such as stock-based pay, was 62%. Adjusted free cash flow, the cash left after capital spending, reached $1.22 billion, and GAAP net income, the profit under standard accounting rules, rose to $1.13 billion, about 49% of revenue.

US Commercial Passes Government for the First Time

US commercial revenue jumped 148% to $984 million and overtook US government revenue, which rose 96% to $953 million, for the first time in Palantir's history. Total US revenue grew 119% to $1.94 billion, about 84% of the total. Net dollar retention reached 165%, meaning customers Palantir already had a year ago are now spending about 65% more.

That shift is what CEO Alex Karp leaned on during the call: "Our somewhat crazy aspiration to take the whole market doesn't look that crazy right now."

Guidance Raised Again

Palantir raised its 2026 revenue guide to $8.530 billion to $8.534 billion, about 91% growth, from $8.150 billion to $8.158 billion and above the roughly $8.2 billion consensus. For Q4, it guided revenue to $2.649 billion to $2.653 billion, about 15% above Q3 and well above the $2.46 billion expected.

It now expects US commercial revenue of more than $3.559 billion, growth of at least 143%, and adjusted free cash flow of $4.8 billion to $5.0 billion, up from $4.5 billion to $4.7 billion.

The Catch: New Deals Are Slowing

TCV rose only 6% to $2.92 billion, after 49% growth in Q2. US commercial TCV rose 11% to $1.46 billion, down from 153% growth last quarter. Remaining performance obligations, contracted revenue not yet recognized, were flat from Q2 at about $4.9 billion, so revenue is now running ahead of new signings.

Even a guidance raise of almost $380 million failed to lift the stock this time, unlike in August, when a raise sent it sharply higher. At the November 2 close of $178.34, PLTR traded at about 126 times its trailing 12-month earnings of $1.42 per share. In my view, Palantir now needs signings to reaccelerate, because revenue growth alone no longer moves the stock.

Palantir Technical Analysis: Channel Break Puts $165.33 in Focus

On the daily chart, the lower boundary of PLTR's rising channel was near $193.50 at the November 2 candle. Monday's $178.34 close left PLTR below the channel, the $185.91 support zone and the 50-day EMA at $184.99. EMAs are moving averages that give more weight to recent prices. Monday's drop came before the report, and the overnight move lower shows the results added to the selling. If that weakness holds, PLTR would also slip below the 100-day EMA at $172.75.

RSI, a momentum gauge that runs from 0 to 100, has dropped to about 38. The MACD line is still positive at 0.55 but sits below its 3.24 signal line. The histogram is negative at −2.69, suggesting sellers are gaining control. RSI is still above 30, the oversold line, which leaves room for more downside.

PLTR Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

On the downside, $165.33 is the next key support. A daily close below it could send PLTR toward $155.02. For buyers, reclaiming $185.91 would be a first step. Getting back inside the channel would require a move above its rising lower boundary.

I'm bearish while PLTR stays below $185.91, with targets at $165.33 and $155.02.

Key Levels

• Last close: $178.34, down 3.13% on Monday, November 2 (overnight: $169.90)
• Support: $172.75, $165.33, $155.02
• Resistance: $184.99, $185.91
• RSI: 37.73, below the 50 midline
• Bullish trigger: Daily close above $185.91
• Bearish trigger: Daily close below $165.33

FAQs

Why did Palantir stock fall after earnings?

Palantir fell overnight because total contract value grew only 6%, raising concern that revenue is outrunning new signings, even though Q3 revenue grew 96% and the company raised its 2026 guide to about 91% growth.

What is the Palantir stock forecast now?

The bias is bearish below $185.91 on the daily chart. PLTR could test $165.33 next, and a daily close below it could open $155.02, while a recovery above $185.91 would reclaim horizontal resistance. The rising channel floor was higher, near $193.50 on November 2.

Bottom Line

Palantir is still growing faster than ever, but slower deal signings are now the market's main concern, and the channel break shows sellers taking over. The next test is $165.33. I expect PLTR to reach that support while it stays below $185.91, and a recovery above $185.91 would clear the first hurdle on the way back toward the rising channel.