Prediction: This Is the Quantum Computing Stock Most Likely to Still Be Standing in 2030

Quantum computers promise to help unlock new breakthroughs in medicine, fusion energy, and many other industries. Through the principles of quantum mechanics, these machines can complete complex calculations in minutes that would take today's supercomputers longer than the age of the universe.

These impressive capabilities hold the promise of outsize returns for investors in quantum computing stocks. There's just one catch. The industry is in its early days, making it unknown which of the many competing technologies will eventually come out on top.

In fact, research giant Gartner recently stated: "Gartner believes the market is overcrowded. Gartner expects that by 2030, an exhaustion of viable commercial revenue will force over 50% of quantum computing start-ups out of business."

I predict IonQ (NYSE: IONQ) will be one pure-play quantum computing enterprise to remain standing in 2030. I'm so confident in this prediction that I bought the company's stock. Here's a look at its long-term prospects.

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IonQ possesses winning technology

IonQ's technology uses trapped ions as the quantum particles powering its devices. This is a winning modality because it delivers high fidelity, a measure of the accuracy and reliability of quantum calculations. As a quantum computer attempts more involved calculations, computational errors pile up and must be corrected. This is one barrier to widespread adoption.

Delivering robust fidelity means fewer errors, and IonQ's devices hold the world record in this metric. Its fidelity is a core commercial differentiator from competitors. This strategy has directly translated into measurable business growth, allowing it to heavily outperform other pure-play quantum competitors. For example, its revenue in the second quarter reached $80.1 million, nearly double the Q2 sales of all other pure-play quantum computer companies combined.

The strength of IonQ's technology was further validated by its advancement to the final round of the Quantum Benchmarking Initiative, implemented by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). DARPA's government program evaluates which quantum computing technologies can achieve utility-scale by 2033.

On Oct. 27, IonQ announced it had won $7.5 million in follow-on funding from the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) to build on the quantum computer network it established in Rome, New York. AFRL's award illustrates that the company not only built successful quantum computers but also expanded them into a computing network.

IonQ's business is growing

The enterprise has consistently delivered revenue growth, a sign that its tech is winning customers. Sales have risen annually since the company went public in 2021. The trend is poised to continue in 2026. IonQ forecast this year's revenue will come in between $450 million and $460 million compared to 2025's $130 million.

The company continues to evolve its offerings to keep its business growing. It acquired SkyWater Technology this year, providing a foundry to construct its quantum computer chips. SkyWater's addition is one of the reasons behind IonQ projecting at least $450 million in 2026 sales. It originally forecast revenue between $280 million and $290 million.

On Oct. 12, IonQ announced it was acquiring Elisity, a cybersecurity enterprise that will help it strengthen its quantum cryptography. A quantum computer can eventually become powerful enough to hack through critical cybersecurity defenses, such as those that protect websites and cryptocurrency. The Elisity acquisition is part of making IonQ's platform resilient against attacks, increasing its attractiveness to customers.

IonQ's financials provide runway to 2030

IonQ exited Q2 with cash, cash equivalents, and investments of $3 billion. On Oct. 14, it announced a $2 billion equity offering in a bid to add to its existing cash stockpile.

The funds are sorely needed. Advancing quantum computer technology is expensive, not to mention the cost of its multiple acquisitions. In Q2, IonQ amassed expenses totaling $417.3 million, up from $181.3 million in 2025.

That's one of the factors contributing to the stock price falling in 2026. It hovers near the low end of its 52-week range as of this writing. However, IonQ's free cash flow (FCF) was a negative $570.2 million over the trailing 12 months. FCF strips out paper-only accounting metrics and isolates the actual dollars moving out of the bank account. If IonQ achieves its target of at least $450 million in sales this year, and is able to continue growing from there, this income, combined with its massive cash hoard, can keep the lights on into 2030.

From there, IonQ has to get FCF into positive territory to avoid the need for additional shareholder dilution or to tap into debt to fund operations. The big unknown is how SkyWater's capital-intensive manufacturing capabilities will affect FCF, but IonQ has historically been able to about double its sales annually. If it continues to aggressively ramp up revenue while bringing costs down, it holds the potential to last for the long haul.

Robert Izquierdo has positions in IonQ. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends IonQ. The Motley Fool recommends Gartner. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.