Tesla Stock Price Forecast: Morgan Stanley Sees Semi Truck Generating $17 Billion in Software Revenue, Can the Stock Continue Its Recovery?

TradingKey - On September 11, Tesla (TSLA) officially unveiled the European-spec version of the Semi and confirmed that customer deliveries will begin in 2027. Tesla is expected to display the vehicle in person and reveal more market rollout details at the IAA Transportation commercial vehicle show in Hanover (September 15–20).

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley noted in its latest research report that Tesla is becoming a "credible emerging contender" in the autonomous trucking sector and significantly raised the bull-case valuation for its autonomous truck business.

Morgan Stanley Sees Semi Truck Bringing $17 Billion in Software Revenue

Morgan Stanley pointed out in its latest research report that each Tesla Semi equipped with autonomous driving software could generate $12,000 to $18,000 in monthly subscription revenue. By comparison, the current FSD subscription price for consumer vehicles is $99 per month, which Morgan Stanley calculated as approximately $100 in the report. In other words, in terms of monthly software revenue, one autonomous Semi is roughly equivalent to 120 to 180 FSD users.

The root cause of this difference is utilization: a commercial vehicle logs 18,000 miles per month, far exceeding that of a personal vehicle, and the per-mile pricing model directly converts this gap into revenue.

Morgan Stanley provided long-term revenue projections in the report: if Tesla deploys 82,000 Semis by 2040—representing a 13.5% share of the addressable autonomous truck market—software revenue alone could reach $17 billion, while generating approximately $7.5 billion in incremental EBIT. A key caveat is that this figure excludes vehicle sales revenue and revenue from Tesla's charging infrastructure. In other words, the $17 billion is purely an estimate for software and services revenue.

Based on this, Morgan Stanley raised its bull-case valuation for Tesla's Network Services by $20 per share to $276 per share, and lifted its overall bull-case price target from $820 to $840, representing more than 125% upside from current share price levels. The base-case price target remains at $400, with an Equal-Weight rating. Viewed in isolation, Morgan Stanley estimates the Semi truck opportunity could be worth $20 per share, or roughly $80 billion in market capitalization.

Tesla Technical Analysis

After halting its decline near $297.38, TSLA gradually reclaimed the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level ($329.35) and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level ($349.13), subsequently climbing all the way to around $365. In early September, the price briefly surged above $380, but failed to hold above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level ($381.10), before pulling back to the current $365 zone.

Tesla 2-hour stock price chart. Source: TradingView

The most critical level at present is the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level ($365.12). The price has returned near this level multiple times, indicating that it serves as both a confirmation level for the earlier rebound and a short-term dividing line between bulls and bears. If the price can consistently close above $365.12 in the coming sessions and reclaim the 10-day moving average ($365.76), conditions will be set for the rebound to target $381.10 again.

Regarding moving averages, the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages are almost converging, indicating a clear slowdown in short-term momentum. This implies that while the medium-term recovery trend remains intact, short-term price action has shifted from "accelerating along moving averages" to "range-bound consolidation following moving average convergence."

Therefore, the current phase is better defined as a breakout confirmation stage near $365.12. Only a move above $381.10 could shift the trend from recovery to a stronger upside; if the price loses $365.12 after holding it, it is more likely to first retest the 80-day moving average ($361.76).

Even if the price briefly climbs above $365.12, it cannot be directly interpreted as a re-acceleration of the trend. Only consecutive closing holds and maintaining this level during a pullback would create the conditions to challenge $381.10 again. If the price quickly falls back below $365.12 after spiking higher, it should be regarded as a false breakout, and the price may return to consolidating within the $361.76–$365.12 range.