Anthropic Targets $2 Trillion Valuation as 2026 US IPO Proceeds Hit Record, Yet New Stocks Lag Market

TradingKey - US IPO proceeds in 2026 have already set a historic record, but post-IPO performance of new listings has failed to strengthen in tandem. As companies like Oura and Anthropic push forward with their listings, September and October will further test investors' appetite for highly valued new shares.

As of early September, the number of US IPOs changed little compared with the same period last year. What truly drove up proceeds was a handful of mega-deals like SpaceX (SPCX). Based on Renaissance Capital's traditional IPO methodology, US IPO proceeds in 2026 have reached approximately $145.8 billion, surpassing the record of about $142.4 billion for the full year of 2021.

Mega IPOs Raise Staggering Capital, Yield Limited Post-Listing Returns

SpaceX went public on Nasdaq on June 12 at an offer price of $135. Following the full exercise of the underwriters' over-allotment option, the company issued a total of approximately 639 million shares, raising about $85.7 billion in gross IPO proceeds, setting a new record for global IPO fundraising. Based on the offer price, the company's valuation was approximately $1.77 trillion.

As of September 9, SpaceX closed at $147.55, up about 9% from its offer price, but down roughly 34% from its post-listing intraday high of $225.64.

AI chip company Cerebras Systems (CBRS) also experienced an initial post-IPO surge followed by a pullback. The company's IPO offer price was $185, raising a total of approximately $6.38 billion in gross proceeds including the full exercise of the underwriters' over-allotment option. On its first day of trading, Cerebras opened at $350 and closed at $311.07; as of September 4, it closed at $210.05, still up about 13.5% from its offer price, but down roughly 32% from its first-day closing price.

Overall performance of large IPOs has also been relatively modest. According to a Bloomberg report on August 31, 16 U.S. IPOs raising at least $1 billion in 2026 generated a weighted average post-listing return of about 4.2%, with six of the top ten IPOs trading below their offer prices.

Biotech IPOs Stand Out

Compared with some large tech IPOs, biotech IPOs have performed stronger this year.

Bloomberg data as of July 21 shows that the year-to-date weighted average return for U.S. biotech and pharmaceutical IPOs was about 55%, compared with -4.4% for overall U.S. IPOs over the same period excluding financial vehicles such as SPACs.

Parabilis Medicines raised about $770.5 million in June and jumped approximately 58% on its first day of trading; Braveheart Bio went public in August, raising about $440 million including the over-allotment option, and surged roughly 66% on its debut.

This indicates that capital is not chasing IPOs across the board, but is instead concentrating in select sectors and issuers with clearer fundamentals.

Oura Goes Public Profitably, Anthropic Targets $2 Trillion Valuation

Smart ring manufacturer Oura filed Form S-1 on September 3. According to the prospectus, for the nine months ended June 30, the company's revenue was approximately $1.215 billion, up 74% year-over-year, with a net profit of approximately $60.8 million and about 5 million paying members. Media reports indicate that the IPO valuation could exceed $11 billion. What sets Oura apart is that, beyond its high growth, the company is already profitable.

Anthropic, meanwhile, faces a market pricing test under an even higher valuation. The company confidentially filed for an IPO in June and is currently advancing preparations for its listing. The Financial Times reported that some investors expect Anthropic's listing valuation could reach $2 trillion or higher, while The Wall Street Journal reported that the IPO could potentially raise up to $100 billion. However, both the specific fundraising size and the final valuation remain undetermined.

According to the Financial Times, Anthropic's annualized revenue run-rate for July was approximately $65 billion, up from $47 billion in May. It should be noted that the annualized revenue run-rate is an annual figure converted from current revenue levels and does not equal the company's actual revenue over the past 12 months or for the full year 2026. A rough calculation based on a $2 trillion valuation and a $65 billion annualized revenue run-rate yields a valuation of approximately 31 times annualized revenue.

SpaceX raised approximately $85.7 billion in its IPO in June this year, currently holding the record for the largest IPO proceeds globally. If Anthropic ultimately raises more than this amount, it will break the record set by SpaceX this year and become the largest IPO globally in terms of fundraising size.

Mega IPO May Delay Subsequent New Share Issuance Process

Mega-IPOs not only test their own valuations but may also impact the listing schedules and institutional capital allocations of other issuers.

Bloomberg data shows that in the month prior to SpaceX's listing, 14 sizable companies completed IPOs, with this cohort posting a post-listing weighted average return of approximately -9.5%.

As Anthropic advances its listing, other companies preparing to go public in the fall may also adjust their offering timelines to avoid competing directly with a mega-IPO for institutional capital.

Bloomberg data as of August 31 shows that the weighted average return for U.S. IPOs in 2026 was approximately 5.6%, lower than the gains of roughly 13% for the S&P 500 Index and roughly 17% for the Nasdaq 100 Index over the same period. Based on data from late August, IPO fundraising has been active this year, but overall performance of new stocks still lags major stock indices.

The completion of SpaceX's record-setting IPO demonstrates that the U.S. primary market still possesses the capacity to execute mega equity financings. However, judging by post-listing stock price performance, whether high-valuation new stocks can gain sustained secondary market acceptance remains to be seen.

For Oura, the market focus is on how high a valuation investors are willing to grant for its high growth and profitability. Anthropic, on the other hand, faces an even higher valuation hurdle: if its listing valuation approaches $2 trillion with an equity offering of tens of billions of dollars, whether the market can provide sufficient demand will be key.