Nike Is Being Deleted From the S&P 100. Is Its Seat in the Dow Jones Industrial Average in Jeopardy?

S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) announced that Nike (NYSE: NKE) will be removed from the S&P 100, effective Sept. 21, as part of its quarterly rebalancing. Honeywell Aerospace, Simon Property Group, and Colgate-Palmolive will also be removed, while Dell Technologies, Palo Alto Networks, Arista Networks, and Sandisk will be added.

Here's why Nike is being removed from the S&P 100, whether it presents an ominous warning for its potential deletion from the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI), and whether the blue chip dividend stock is a good buy now.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

Justifying Nike's S&P 100 removal

The S&P 100 isn't the 100 largest S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) components by market cap. Rather, it's a curated sector that represents blue chip companies across stock market sectors and industries with a focus on megacap and large-cap behemoths.

Nike has remained in the index due to its industry leadership, not its size. Nike is now the 213th-highest-weighted company in the S&P 500. It's also the lowest-ranked component in the iShares S&P 500 100 ETF -- which uses the S&P 100 as a benchmark.

Nike's removal makes sense given that its stock price continues to fall and its industry leadership isn't what it used to be. What's more, Dell, Palo Alto, Arista, and Sandisk have all gone up so much that they are all in the top 50 in S&P 500 components by market cap. Nike's industry leadership premium no longer justifies its inclusion in the S&P 100 over companies that are worth several times more and contributing to the S&P 500's gains, whereas Nike has been a drag on the index.

NKE data by YCharts

As you can see in the chart, Nike is at its lowest level in more than a decade, with revenue and earnings down in recent years and operating margins plummeting from the low- to mid-high teens pre-pandemic to under 9% today. There's a laundry list of issues at Nike, including supply chain and corporate strategy blunders, slowing growth in China, tariffs, domestic consumer spending pressures, and increased competition from formidable rivals.

Even with these issues, it's important to remember that investors care more about where a company could be headed than where it has been. Investors may take one glance at the stock's price action and assume Nike is a no-brainer buy. But Nike hasn't returned to growth, and its runway for doing so is shrouded in dense uncertainty.

As part of its Win Now turnaround plan, Nike has implemented cost cuts and changed its strategy to better balance wholesale and direct-to-consumer. For fiscal 2026, which ended on May 31, wholesale revenue grew 4% year over year, with double-digit growth in North America. But many of the challenges that weighed on the business remain -- namely, competition, current operating trends in consumer discretionary spending, and the China slowdown.

Better Dow candidates

With Alphabet replacing Verizon Communications in the Dow this past June, Nike is now the lowest-ranked component in the price-weighted index -- putting it on the hot seat for the next stock most likely to be replaced. With just 30 components, the Dow is more exclusive than the S&P 100, Nasdaq-100, or the S&P 500. The Dow has become increasingly tech-stock-focused in recent years to reflect the evolving economy -- adding Nvidia and Amazon in 2024, and now Alphabet this year. However, there are massive companies that could muscle their way into the Dow, such as Broadcom, Meta Platforms, Tesla, Space Exploration Technologies, or maybe even Tesla and SpaceX combined if they merge.

Although the Dow has traditionally included industry-leading dividend-paying companies, the dividend-paying aspect of the criteria seems to carry less weight today than in years past, as Alphabet and Nvidia both yield less than 0.5%, and Amazon doesn't even pay a dividend.

Nike has raised its dividend for 24 consecutive years and yields a sizable 4.3%. But that payout could be under pressure if Nike's dividend expense begins to absorb too much of its free cash flow.

Nike will be removed from the Dow

Nike could be a good buy for investors who are confident in its brands and management's ability to execute a successful turnaround. And if the broader stock market were selling off, perhaps Nike would be given more grace.

But the major indexes, including the S&P 500 and the Dow, are hovering around all-time highs -- shortening the leash for underperforming stocks like Nike, especially now that it is closer to the median S&P 500 component weight and makes up a mere 0.4% of the Dow.

At this point, I think it's only a matter of time before Nike is removed from the storied Dow Jones index. And most investors may be better off waiting for concrete signals of a sustained turnaround before buying the stock.

Daniel Foelber has positions in Broadcom, Nike, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Arista Networks, Broadcom, Colgate-Palmolive, Honeywell Aerospace, Meta Platforms, Nike, Nvidia, S&P Global, and Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends Palo Alto Networks and Verizon Communications. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.