Vistra Is Down 30% From Its High. Here's What I'd Do Now.

Vistra's (NYSE: VST) stock closed at a record high of $217.02 per share on Sept. 22, 2025. That marked a whopping 556% gain over its previous two years, and was largely driven by the explosive growth of the power-hungry cloud infrastructure and AI markets.

But as of this writing, the power generation and retail electricity provider's stock trades at about $154. Let's see why it pulled back nearly 30% -- and if it's worth buying right now.

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What happened to Vistra over the past year?

Vistra owns a broad range of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities. It sells electricity to approximately five million customers through its retail subsidiaries, which include TXU Energy, Dynegy, Homefield Energy, Ambit, and other regional leaders. It has a capacity of approximately 44 GW, which is enough electricity to power 22 million homes.

Vistra's revenue rose only 3% in 2025, but analysts anticipate 29% growth in 2026 as it benefits from the soaring demand for electricity among data centers. They expect its EPS, which declined 69% in 2025 (mainly due to one-time accounting adjustments related to its hedges and its integration of Energy Harbor), to more than quadruple in 2026.

However, two challenges weighed down Vistra's stock. First, it shut down a major portion of its Moss Landing battery storage facilities, which were damaged by fires in early 2025, instead of recommissioning them. Second, PJM Interconnection, which manages the power grid across the Mid-Atlantic and the Midwest, proposed new rules to cap electricity capacity prices.

However, Vistra has weathered numerous regulatory challenges and plant outages over the past nine years since its IPO. It will also remain locked into the expanding AI market through its data center deals with Meta Platforms and Amazon. Therefore, it still has a wide moat, a sticky ecosystem, and plenty of pricing power.

Does its pullback represent a good buying opportunity?

For 2027, analysts expect Vistra's revenue and EPS to grow 5% and 8%, respectively, as its year-over-year comparisons normalize. At $154, it trades at just 15 times next year's earnings and pays a forward yield of 0.6%. At its peak, it was trading at 23 times its 2026 earnings.

So even though Vistra shed its "AI premium" over the past year, it's worth buying today if you expect data centers to gobble up more electricity. It won't grow as rapidly as companies that are more dedicated to AI infrastructure, but it's still a sound long-term investment.

Leo Sun has positions in Amazon and Meta Platforms. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Vistra. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.