Nuclear Stock Face-Off: Is Constellation Energy or Vistra the Better Buy Right Now?
Key Points
Constellation Energy's nuclear portfolio is much larger, but Vistra has also locked in significant long-term demand from major technology companies.
Constellation Energy expects base EPS to grow at least 20% annually through 2029, although that metric represents only part of total earnings.
Vistra combines long-term nuclear contracts with additional earnings opportunities that are not yet included in its 2027 EBITDA expectations.
- 10 stocks we like better than Vistra ›
Constellation Energy (NASDAQ: CEG) operates the largest U.S. nuclear power portfolio, with over 22 gigawatts of capacity at the end of fiscal 2025. Although Vistra's (NYSE: VST) nuclear portfolio is smaller, with 6,448 megawatts of capacity, its contracted opportunity is substantial. Both companies have been signing long-term deals with technology companies that need reliable electricity for data centers.
Image source: Getty Images
Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »
But the better stock is not simply the company with more nuclear capacity. Constellation Energy and Vistra trade at roughly 22.4 times and 14.4 times forward one-year earnings, respectively. The significant valuation gap is an important factor in deciding which stock offers the better opportunity today.
Constellation has significant revenue visibility
Constellation Energy has signed a 20-year agreement to supply Microsoft with power from the planned restart of the 835-megawatt Crane Clean Energy Center. The company has also signed a 20-year agreement to supply Meta Platforms with 1,121 megawatts of nuclear power from the Clinton Clean Energy Center. Constellation Energy also signed another 920 megawatts of long-term power purchase agreements for nuclear generation in the second quarter. (ending June 30, 2026).
Management expects base earnings per share to compound at 20% or more annually from 2026 through 2029. However, base earnings represent only about 60% to 70% of total adjusted operating earnings. So investors should not assume total adjusted operating earnings per share (EPS) will grow at the same rate.
Vistra also looks attractive
Vistra's 20-year agreements with Meta Platforms cover 2,609 megawatts, including 433 megawatts of new capacity expected from upgrades at existing plants. Amazon's AWS has also signed a 20-year agreement for up to 1,200 megawatts of power from Vistra's Comanche Peak nuclear plant.
Vistra sees a 2027 adjusted EBITDA opportunity of $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion from its ongoing operations, excluding potential benefits from the pending Cogentrix Energy acquisition and its agreements with Meta Platforms. The company has also reduced its share count by roughly 30% since November 2021, which has helped boost earnings per share even without relying entirely on faster business growth.
Hence, while Constellation Energy deserves a premium, Vistra offers the stronger risk-reward proposition today.
Should you buy stock in Vistra right now?
Before you buy stock in Vistra, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Vistra wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $421,997!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,413,876!*
Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 978% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 213% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.
See the 10 stocks »
*Stock Advisor returns as of September 6, 2026.
Manali Pradhan, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Constellation Energy, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Vistra. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Recommended Articles
