Is Tesla About to Finally Launch the Robotaxi Fleet That Will Justify Its Valuation?
Key Points
Tesla's Cybercab event is expected to begin at 5:45 p.m. ET in Austin.
Published reports say the company has 45 Cybercabs in Texas, and the company has been promoting them on social media.
Morgan Stanley analysts say a "meaningful" increase in unsupervised vehicles could be a catalyst for Tesla stock.
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Today is a big day for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and its CEO, Elon Musk. Tesla has scheduled an event in Austin today to share details about its upcoming Cybercab -- a driverless two-seat vehicle whose design it debuted two years ago.
Tesla and Musk have put a lot of effort into the Cybercab, which has no steering wheel or pedals and is designed to operate unsupervised using the company's Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology. Is tonight the day that Tesla finally begins to justify its huge valuation and reward investors who have been hanging on during down cycles?
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Here's what we know about today’s Cybercab event
Tesla teased the event on social media, writing on X, "no steering wheel, no pedals," and in another post, urged riders to "try it out." Musk pinned a post to the top of his X feed that simply says, “A Storm of Cybercabs.” The event is expected to begin at 5:45 p.m. ET, according to a post from cybercab engineer Eric Early on X.
But in large part, the event is shrouded in secrecy. Reuters reports that Tesla has 45 Cybercab vehicles in Texas, and the company has been posting social media photos of a fleet of gold-colored Cybercabs with their distinctive butterfly doors.
In a research note, Morgan Stanley analysts wrote that they expect Tesla stock to "regain momentum" if the event includes a "meaningful" increase in unsupervised vehicles. But the analysts also warned that if the event is underwhelming, the market's reaction would be muted or worse. "Continued growth in the unsupervised fleet (Cybercab or Model Y) is key for the stock to outperform through year-end," the analysts wrote.
Tesla stock is down nearly 15% so far in 2026, and currently trades 22% below its all-time high.
Why is today's event important to Tesla?
Tesla has been working for years on full self-driving. Musk has been promising for at least a decade that the company was close to introducing a vehicle capable of driving across the country without human intervention.
The company currently offers a supervised FSD system for its vehicles that requires a human driver to remain at the wheel and be prepared to steer or brake. The FSD subscription costs $99 a month, and Tesla says that more than 14.1 billion miles have been driven with the technology, with collision rates that are 7x lower than those of human drivers.
But the company still needs to get unsupervised FSD approved for national use. And it has fallen behind Alphabet and its Waymo business, which includes commercial robotaxi service operating in 14 U.S. cities and a fleet of 4,000 driverless vehicles on U.S. roadways.
Tesla needs a win
It's been a rough summer for Tesla. The company's second-quarter earnings report was not well received, as Tesla reported dwindling margins and rising expenses, which overshadowed the 25% increase in vehicle sales and a 26% jump in revenue. Operating margins dropped from 4.1% a year ago to 1.4% in the second quarter, and expenses increased 47% to $4.35 billion.
In addition, the company's capital expenditures more than doubled sequentially, and Tesla issued guidance for $25 billion in capex for the year. It also announced plans to borrow up to $30 billion.
Tesla stock was up nearly 7% at midday trading today, signaling market enthusiasm for today’s event. Tesla has set a high bar -- if it can clear it, Tesla stock may go parabolic tomorrow. If it falls short, this could be a rough day to hold Tesla shares.
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Patrick Sanders has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet and Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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