British Pound rises as Fed’s Waller tempers Fed hike bets before NFP

• GBP/USD rises as Waller’s neutral stance trims Fed hike bets.
• Strong ISM services data limits Sterling gains before NFP.
• BoE’s Pill backs higher rates, supporting Sterling resilience.

The Pound Sterling rises against the US Dollar on Thursday, as Fed Governor Christopher Waller favors holding the rate unchanged, shifting to a more neutral stance regarding monetary policy, while data showed that the US labour market is solid and that business activity improved. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3535, up 0.37%.

GBP/USD gains as Waller softens Fed risks before NFP

Waller said that if upcoming inflation data shows cooling, he would be inclined to allow a resumption of the disinflation process, as he sees the Fed funds rate as appropriate. Nevertheless, he admitted if otherwise and inflation comes hot, he would not hesitate to consider a rate hike.

His comments triggered a repricing by money markets, which, a day ago, priced in a more than 60% chance of a 25-basis-point (bps) rate hike. As of writing, the odds have shrunk to 54% for a rate rise and 46% for rates to stay steady.

 Data-wise, the US ISM Services PMI in August was 55.4, exceeding forecasts of 54.3 and July’s 54.1. Some of the sub-components of the PMI showed that companies are complaining about higher prices, while the jobs market seems to have stabilized, though it remained in contractionary territory.

Other data revealed that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose from 204K to 206K, a tick above the 206K expected, an indication of a “low-firing, low-hiring environment.” Earlier, the Challenge, Gray & Christmas firm, revealed that announced plans to hire by companies rose 37% in the first eight months of 2026, compared to

In the UK, the docket was absent, but Cable benefited from a potential intervention in the FX markets, as the Japanese Yen appreciated sharply against most G8 FX currencies.

Meanwhile, Bank of England (BoE) Chief Economist Huw Pill was hawkish, saying that “my own response has pointed to a need to raise Bank Rate to 4%.” He added that raising rates “may serve to head off some of the potential insidious catch-up dynamics.”

Now, traders' eyes are on the release of the US August Non-Farm Payroll figures on Friday.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3531, holding above the latest triple simple moving average cluster around 1.3449 and a series of reclaimed trend-line levels, which collectively suggest a mildly bullish near-term bias. The pair is now trading over former descending resistance lines, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 51.43 sits just above neutral, hinting at steady rather than impulsive upside momentum as price approaches the next key structural cap.

On the downside, immediate support is clustered between the broken resistance trend line at 1.3478, the composite triple simple moving average near 1.3449, and the secondary trend support around 1.3421, with additional protection seen at the earlier break level near 1.3378. On the topside, the upward-sloping trend-line break at 1.3653 is the next notable resistance, and a sustained move above this barrier would open the path for a more decisive bullish extension in the coming sessions.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)