Intuitive Machines’ stock has nearly tripled over the past two years.
It still looks reasonably valued relative to its long-term growth potential.
Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ: LUNR), a developer of lunar landers and exploration vehicles, doesn't usually get as much attention as bigger space stocks like SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX). But over the past two years, Intuitive's stock has nearly tripled.
Most of that rally was driven by the expansion of its partnership with NASA, which now includes seven lunar, orbital satellite, and science missions. Let's take a closer look at that manifest -- and see if its stock is still worth chasing after its astronomical gains.
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Intuitive Machines' manifest for NASA includes five lunar surface delivery missions (IM-1 to IM-5) and the production of two satellite buses (IM 300 and IM 500) for orbital science missions.
It has launched two lunar lander missions for NASA so far: IM-1 in 2024 and IM-2 in 2025. Both landers tipped over after arriving on the moon, but they successfully transmitted some data back to NASA before their solar panels ran out of power. Though imperfect, IM-1 marked NASA's first successful moon landing since 1972, and it strengthened Intuitive's relationship with NASA.
Intuitive plans to launch IM-3 in late 2026, IM-4 in 2027, and its larger IM-5 lander in 2030. It expects to launch its IM 300 satellite bus for NASA's geological and biological experiments in 2028, and its IM 500 satellite bus to study ice sheets, forests, and inland water in 2030.
Intuitive's orders from NASA, along with its commercial and defense contracts, boosted its backlog to $1.8 billion at the end of the second quarter of 2026. That's nearly double its projected 2026 revenue of $918 million. Its recent acquisitions of Lanteris, which develops satellites and other spacecraft, and Goonhilly Earth Station, a satellite and deep-space communications facility, should further diversify its business and fuel its long-term growth.
From 2026 to 2028, analysts expect Intuitive's revenue to grow at a 16% CAGR to $1.23 billion as its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) surges from less than $3 million to $79 million. With an enterprise value of $2.62 billion, it still looks reasonably valued at two times next year's sales and 47 times its adjusted EBITDA.
Therefore, Intuitive could attract more attention if it sticks to its scheduled launches and secures more contracts with NASA, the Department of Defense, and commercial customers. Investors who accumulate it today could reap some big gains in the future.
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Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Intuitive Machines. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.