Prediction Markets Now Expect AI Start-Up Anthropic to Unseat SpaceX as the Largest IPO in 2026
Key Points
SpaceX rewrote Wall Street's record books by raising $85.7 billion from its public debut, including the underwriters' overallotment.
Polymarket traders give Anthropic a 63% chance of topping Space Exploration Technologies as this year's largest IPO.
However, chasing after Wall Street's hottest IPOs rarely works out for retail investors.
- 10 stocks we like better than Space Exploration Technologies ›
This has been a history-packed year in several respects. We've watched the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite rally to new highs and welcomed a new Fed chair for only the 17th time in the central bank's 113-year history.
But perhaps the most profound moment of 2026, thus far, has been Space Exploration Technologies' (SpaceX) (NASDAQ: SPCX) initial public offering (IPO). Elon Musk's SpaceX raised $85.7 billion from its debut, including the underwriters' overallotment, nearly tripling the previous largest-ever IPO cash raise. But SpaceX may not hold its crown for much longer, courtesy of artificial intelligence (AI) start-up, Anthropic.
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Image source: Getty Images.
Anthropic's IPO may top $2 trillion
According to prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket, investors believe there's a greater likelihood that Anthropic will surpass SpaceX as the largest IPO of 2026.
As of Aug. 26, traders on Polymarket placed a 63% chance of Anthropic topping SpaceX, the latter of which was valued at $1.77 trillion when it priced approximately 555.6 million shares at $135 each. To put this into perspective, Polymarket's traders assigned almost no chance of Anthropic unseating SpaceX four weeks ago.
JUST IN: Anthropic has overtaken SpaceX as the favorite to be 2026's largest IPO by market cap.
-- Polymarket Money (@PolymarketMoney) August 26, 2026
63% chance. pic.twitter.com/TKGKiYMUMD
If you're wondering what happened over the last four weeks, look no further than the latest sales update. According to Bloomberg, the developer of the Claude large language model has seen its annual run rate sales catapult from around $9 billion at the end of 2025 to $65 billion by the end of July.
Anthropic has several high-profile, recurring clients, including social media maven Meta Platforms and software kingpin Microsoft, among others. It's also backed by some well-known investors, including Amazon and Alphabet, whose stakes in Anthropic total approximately 21% and 14%, respectively.
Unfortunately, AI start-up Anthropic, which may target up to a $2 trillion valuation, faces many of the same historical headwinds as SpaceX.
Image source: Getty Images.
Chasing after hot IPOs rarely works out for retail investors
Arguably, the biggest question mark for Anthropic, which carries over from SpaceX's IPO less than three months ago, is how to justify its stratospheric valuation.
When SpaceX debuted, it was trading at north of 100 times its reported 2025 full-year sales. History shows that no company at the forefront of a game-changing technological trend has sustained a price-to-sales ratio above 30 over an extended period. Even based on its annual run rate sales, Anthropic would fall firmly in this historical bubble territory.
Speaking of bubbles, we've yet to see any game-changing technology over the last three decades avoid an early stage bubble-bursting event. These bubbles eventually burst because investors persistently overestimate the pace of adoption and/or optimization of new technologies. While spending on AI infrastructure is off the charts, we're likely several years away from businesses optimizing AI solutions.
Lastly, history teaches us that chasing hot tech-driven IPOs rarely works in retail investors' favor.
Moral of the story-do NOT chase hot IPOs
-- Puru Saxena (@saxena_puru) June 3, 2026
Year-1 average drawdown = 55%
Year-1 median drawdown = 54%
Table: Truist pic.twitter.com/xt864JD4Xh
According to data gathered by Trust Financial, the average year-one max drawdown for the 30 hottest tech-driven IPOs over the last 14 years is 55%! Thus far, SpaceX's peak-to-trough drawdown from its post-debut high is 54%! While retail investor buzz surrounding IPOs can be otherworldly, it rarely lasts more than a few weeks.
Even though prediction markets expect Anthropic to rewrite Wall Street's history books, retail investors would be wise to keep their distance.
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Sean Williams has positions in Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta Platforms. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Truist Financial. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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