Viking Therapeutics Has $502 Million in Cash and 1 Big Catalyst Left in 2026 -- Is That Enough?

Viking Therapeutics (NASDAQ: VKTX) has two phase 3 trials (obesity and obesity/type diabetes) in progress for its key weight loss drug, VK2735 (subcutaneous formulation), and another phase 3 trial (oral formulation) set to start in the fourth quarter of 2026.

While results from those two trials are years away, and management maintains it has cash into 2028, there is a near-term catalyst that is directly relevant to how these trials might be conducted and, arguably more importantly, to the investment case for the stock.

The key benefit of VK2735

VK2735 is a dual GLP-1 and GIP agonist in trials for the treatment of obesity. It's a competitive market, but as previously discussed, VK2735 appears to have two benefits over its peers. First, it has demonstrated the ability to achieve a steeper rate of weight loss than its rivals in previous trials. Second, it's being developed as a dual-formulation therapy in which a more convenient oral maintenance dose will follow an initial subcutaneous (injection) dose. As such, the key benefit is steep weight loss followed by a convenient maintenance dose.

Why the phase 1 maintenance dose matters

VK2735 is already in a phase 3 trial as a subcutaneous formulation, but results won't be available until late 2027 at the earliest. It's also set to start a phase 3 trial (oral) in the fourth quarter of 2026, with results unlikely until 2028 -- as noted above, management maintains it's funded until 2028. While these critical results are some time away, the data from a 31-week phase 1 maintenance trial is due in the third quarter of 2026, and what it reveals will inevitably impact the stock.

The trial enrolled 180 patients who received weekly doses of VK2735 (injection) or placebo for 19 weeks, then transitioned to a range of dosing regimens, including weekly, biweekly, monthly (subcutaneous), and daily (oral), as well as placebo.

Image source: Getty Images.

As you might surmise by the size of the trial and the wide range of dosages, this is not an extensive, high-powered trial. Still, its results will matter to the investment case.

• Management has acknowledged that the results during the last earnings call "could serve to inform the selection of doses in the upcoming VANQUISH extension studies expected to begin in late 2026 or early 2027."
• If the trial fails and the data show patients regaining weight after the initial subcutaneous dose, or reveal significant gastrointestinal issues after switching to oral or less frequent subcutaneous dosing, then this could weaken the case for a dual-formulation strategy.

What could and couldn't happen after the results

At this point, it's important to note that the data from the phase 1 study are extremely unlikely to kill the phase 3 trials, and they won't stop the dual-formulation strategy. However, it could affect sentiment about the strategy's benefits, which is likely to impact the share price.

Similarly, a "successful" phase 1 trial would further support the strategy. That would be particularly the case if the data indicate good safety and tolerability with the subcutaneous-to-oral dosage in patients. That would strengthen investor sentiment and support the share price.

Lee Samaha has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Viking Therapeutics. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.