Anthropic Could Outdo SpaceX With Its IPO. Here's How Much Investors Think It's Worth Right Now and Why.

Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX), better known as SpaceX, shattered records with its IPO in June. The company went public at a valuation of $1.77 trillion and raised $86 billion. Both stand as records.

But Anthropic could shatter at least one of them. The AI lab confidentially filed its IPO prospectus with the SEC at the start of June, and it could go public before the end of the year. When it does, it could command an even higher valuation than SpaceX.

Anthropic's last funding round in May valued the company at $965 billion. But its valuation could climb to $2 trillion by the time it goes public, according to some investors. Here's why it could be the highest-valued company to go public in history, and how it compares to SpaceX.

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Why do investors think Anthropic is headed toward $2 trillion?

Anthropic is the fastest-growing software company in history. The company reached a $65 billion run rate in July. That level of revenue would put it firmly in the Fortune 100, but what's even more impressive is that it wouldn't even have made the Fortune 500 list a year ago. The company has seen revenue explode this year from a $9 billion revenue run rate to start the year, which is up from a $5 billion run rate last August and a $1 billion run rate at the start of 2025.

Investors expect Anthropic's revenue run rate to climb to between $100 billion and $120 billion by the end of the year. The company is reportedly projecting $190 billion to $200 billion in revenue for the full-year 2028. Keep in mind, this is a company that's just five and a half years old.

Elon Musk is also projecting rapid revenue growth for SpaceX and its artificial intelligence business. He said the company's internal projections indicate it will reach $1 trillion in revenue by 2030. Musk also thinks that the 10 gigawatts of compute capacity SpaceX plans to have online by the end of 2027 will produce between $300 billion and $500 billion in revenue for the business in 2028. Investors should take Musk's projections with a grain of salt. He has a habit of overpromising.

For reference, SpaceX just reported quarterly revenue of $7.8 billion, for an annual run rate of $31.2 billion, less than half of Anthropic's. That said, it didn't start bringing on cloud computing customers until late in the quarter. Management thinks it'll reach a $100 billion annualized run rate by the end of the year, which puts it on par with investors' expectations for the AI lab.

Should you buy Anthropic or SpaceX?

Both companies are growing quickly as demand for artificial intelligence continues to increase. There are still many questions about Anthropic that need to be answered, and we'll get a lot of information once it releases a public IPO prospectus.

The key considerations are whether either company has a competitive moat. SpaceX's revenue growth stems from its ability to supply compute amid a massive capacity shortage. It counts Anthropic and Google as its biggest customers, the latter noting that it's only buying capacity as a temporary means to ensure it can serve its largest and most valuable customers.

Meanwhile, Anthropic's AI models consistently rank at the top of the frontier model class. What's more, its harnessed its models' capabilities to create excellent tools like Claude Code and Claude Cowork. While other AI labs have followed in its footsteps, Anthropic has continued to demonstrate leading capabilities. That's exemplified by both its incredible revenue growth this year and reports that it charges 2.5 times the rate of OpenAI for its leading model.

The other consideration is how profitable the business actually is. Massive revenue growth means nothing unless there's a clear path toward profitability. To that end, SpaceX's AI business reported an adjusted operating loss of $741 million last quarter, an improvement over its $2.09 billion loss in the first quarter. But with a massive step up in compute spending, it'll likely remain negative for some time. Meanwhile, Anthropic is already producing a positive operating profit, according to reports. The company was projected to produce a positive adjusted operating profit of $559 million in the second quarter.

So, with higher levels of revenue, a consistently demonstrated competitive advantage, and better operating margins, Anthropic should be worth more than SpaceX. With SpaceX commanding a market cap of $1.85 trillion as of this writing, it's no surprise investors think Anthropic is worth at least $2 trillion.

Adam Levy has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.