Will SpaceX Stock Be Higher or Lower a Year From Now? Here's the Verdict.
Key Points
SpaceX trades near its IPO price after experiencing several large price swings.
Both bulls and bears have good arguments about what will happen with the stock.
Key factors that could make a difference include lockup expirations and a potential merger with Tesla
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It's been a wild couple of months for shareholders of Space Exploration Technologies(NASDAQ:SPCX), better known as SpaceX. Elon Musk's artificial intelligence (AI) and space technology company conducted the biggest initial public offering (IPO) ever. Its stock skyrocketed but then sank.
After all of this intense volatility, SpaceX's share price now trades only slightly above its IPO price of $135. But will the stock be higher or lower a year from now?
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Image source: SpaceX.
Why SpaceX could be significantly higher in August 2027
The bull case for why SpaceX's stock could be significantly higher in August 2027 can be summed up in one word: growth. Anyone who doubts the company can deliver robust growth should look at its 2026 second-quarter results.
SpaceX reported Q2 revenue of $7.8 billion, up 92% year over year. Revenue for its space segment, which includes the Falcon 9 and Starship rockets, jumped 29%. But the company's connectivity segment, which features its Starlink satellite internet services unit, saw sales soar roughly 66%.
The big story, though, was SpaceX's AI business. Its revenue skyrocketed by nearly 3.5X year over year to $2.56 billion in Q2. Importantly, that number includes only early contributions from SpaceX's mega-deals with Anthropic and Alphabet's (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Google Cloud.
SpaceX's management team projects a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate by the end of this year. And executives expect the company will hit $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030 -- a year earlier than its previous forecast.
Quite a few Wall Street analysts believe in SpaceX's growth story, too. The average 12-month price target reflects an upside of over 50%.
Count Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) among the many SpaceX fans as well. The GPU giant recently disclosed that it has invested around $21 billion in SpaceX.
Why SpaceX could be lower in 12 months
I don't think the bear case for why SpaceX's share price could be lower in 12 months can be summed up in one word. There are several reasons why the stock could decline over the next year.
One glaring negative in SpaceX's Q2 update was its bottom line. Heavy investments in building out AI infrastructure more than offset the company's impressive revenue growth. Investors could remain skittish about this spending.
SpaceX's lockup expirations present another key concern. The company's full 180-day lockup expires on Dec. 8, 2026. Insiders and institutional holders will then be able to sell as much of their holdings as they'd like. A wave of insider selling would almost certainly create tremendous downward pressure on SpaceX's share price.
Would a sell-off later this year cause SpaceX stock to be lower next August than it is today? Maybe. Even if not, another big event could. Musk, SpaceX's biggest shareholder, can sell his shares on June 12, 2027.
We can't ignore the possibility of a merger with another Musk company, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), either. SpaceX would likely have to issue a huge number of new shares to buy the electric vehicle maker. The resulting dilution could cause SpaceX's share price to sink.
The verdict
Are the SpaceX bulls right or do the bears have the stronger argument? Both sides make compelling points.
I wouldn't be surprised if SpaceX's stock sets a new low with the coming opportunities for insiders to sell more shares. But I predict the stock will fall more before the remaining lockup expiration dates than it does afterward -- just as we saw recently with the Aug. 6, 2026, expiration.
However, SpaceX could continue to post spectacular numbers (which could happen with the future revenue from the Anthropic and Google Cloud agreements). If investors see that the company can effectively monetize its AI infrastructure investments, the stock could overcome any lockup-related headwinds.
The possibility of a Tesla merger is the biggest wild card that could derail any momentum. Barring this development, though, I think SpaceX's share price could be higher a year from now.
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Keith Speights has positions in Alphabet. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Nvidia, and Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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