Nvidia, AMD, and Intel: Wall Street Says to Buy 2 and Avoid 1. I Disagree.

Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), AMD (NASDAQ: AMD), and Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) are three of the most popular artificial intelligence (AI) stock picks in the market. While Nvidia has been a top pick since the AI arms race began in 2023, it hasn't done nearly as well as the other two in 2026. This year, Nvidia is up 18%, while AMD is up 126%, and Intel leads the way at a 162% gain. If you bought AMD and Intel at the start of the year, you're very happy. If you bought Nvidia instead, you're likely pretty disappointed.

But none of that matters now. Instead, investors need to look ahead as to which stock is the best buy for the next year. Wall Street analysts offer one-year price targets to help convey where they think the stock will go, but using one analyst usually isn't a smart idea, because there's always one or two that have a preposterous prediction to the upside or downside. However, combining all analysts that follow a stock in aggregate usually yields a reasonable consensus pick.

If we do that, it reveals some interesting information about the stocks, and clearly conveys one major winner, one OK pick, and one that investors should consider moving on from.

Image source: Getty Images.

What do the analysts have to say?

Starting with 2026's worst performer, Nvidia's current price tag is about $220, but Wall Street analysts have an average one-year price target of $303 on the stock. That's a one-year projection of 38% upside, which would easily crush the market and make Nvidia a top-performing stock.

Next up is AMD. AMD has a current price tag of $484, with a one-year price target of $613. That indicates a 27% gain, which is less than Nvidia's but still greater than the average return of the market.

Last is Intel, which has an interesting dynamic. It currently trades at $97 per share and has an average price target of $115. That projects a gain of 19%, which is worse than the other two, but still not bad overall. However, of the 48 analysts who cover it, 32 indicate that it's a "hold." While a "hold" in analysts' eyes can mean a lot of things, the reality is that there are many concerns about Intel's stock in the analyst community, and the last two updates to be released were for Intel to underperform the market.

So, why is the analyst community doubting Intel so much?

Intel has a lot of success baked in that it hasn't seen yet

Intel has rallied from its lows after the U.S. government and Nvidia heavily invested in Intel to save its foundry business from going under. As Intel revives this business unit, it needs to find some key clients, and many may be unwilling to switch from its current supplier. Still, Intel's valuation is right in line with AMD's while being far more expensive than Nvidia's.

AMD PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts

The fear from the analyst community is that too much revival has been baked into Intel's stock, but I would make the same argument for AMD's stock. AMD and Intel are both very expensive and trading on the expectations that the next few years will provide a serious turnaround. Meanwhile, Nvidia is projected to dominate over the next few years and needs no turnaround, yet the stock trades for a reasonable valuation.

As a result, I think the best buy of the trio is by far Nvidia. While AMD and Intel may have market-beating projections on their stocks from the analyst community, Nvidia is just too cheap to ignore here.

Keithen Drury has positions in Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Advanced Micro Devices, Intel, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.