Stanley Druckenmiller Is Buying Beaten-Down Stocks in Mexico and Argentina, a Contrarian Bet Other Investors May Want to Watch

Stanley Druckenmiller has been active south of the U.S. border lately.

The billionaire investment manager's Duquesne Family Office bought $128 million of YPF SA (NYSE: YPF), Argentina's state-controlled oil producer, in the first quarter, pairing it with a purchase of BBB Foods (NYSE: TBBB), a Mexican discount grocer, and a new stake in the Global X MSCI Argentina ETF (NYSEMKT: ARGT), an exchange-traded fund (ETF) holding a basket of Argentine equities.

While all three of those names are up substantially over the past 12 months, Argentine equities suffered a sharp sell-off in September 2025 after President Javier Milei's party lost a key provincial vote, and the benchmark Merval index dipped again in early 2026, just before Druckenmiller loaded up.

So what is the famous macro investor banking on by buying these stocks?

Stanley Druckenmiller. Image source: Getty Images.

He isn't fishing in the bargain bin

Druckenmiller's thesis was probably not that the valuation of these stocks was too cheap when he bought them. At the time of his most recent investment, YPF was priced near a 20-year high thanks to expectations that its Vaca Muerta shale formation would be substantially boosting its output over the coming years.

Furthermore, the Vaca Muerta Sur (VMOS) export pipeline, which relieves the bottleneck that has kept that oil from reaching foreign buyers, should move its first oil by January 2027, and YPF is the largest owner with a roughly 25% stake.

Duquesne had trimmed its Argentine exposure, including to YPF, before the country's October 2025 midterms, and then piled back in after Milei's libertarian coalition government held.

It bears mentioning here that one of the perpetual problems of investing in Argentine businesses, both big and small, is that its political environment tends to change dramatically depending on who wins the elections. And that's why, despite my considerable affinity for the country and my many experiences with seeing the adaptability and strength of its businesses, I can't recommend anyone following in Druckenmiller's footsteps with an investment here.

So Druckenmiller's bet on YPF and the Argentine ETF can be interpreted as bets on Milei's style of libertarianism leaving an imprint on how the country does business even once he's out of office -- a contrarian but plausible view -- or, alternatively, they can be interpreted as medium-term catalyst-driven investments that are likely to deliver a tidy return well in advance of Milei leaving power.

The Mexican investment is distinct

Whereas the Argentina ETF and YPF are inextricable from that country's political situation and the economic constraints of its primary energy producer, Druckenmiller's purchase of BBB Foods centers on Mexico. BBB Foods is a discount grocer, so it tends to benefit when household budgets are under pressure.

Mexico's economy contracted at an annualized 2.4% in Q1, and foreign remittances (an important source of household income) were down 0.6% through April compared with the same period in 2025. Sales at BBB Foods stores that were open a year or more grew by 16% year over year in that quarter.

Here, Druckenmiller is likely betting on continued pressure on Mexico's workers. If he's right, the BBB trade won't last forever because the economy will likely strengthen again at some point -- but it could very well be a decent investment until that happens.

Alex Carchidi has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends BBB Foods. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.