Marvell Stock Price Prediction: Can MRVL Continue to Rise After Custom Chip Deal With Google?

TradingKey - Google (GOOGL) is accelerating its expansion in custom AI chips, while Marvell (MRVL) has become the latest beneficiary.

On August 19, Marvell's stock rose more than 13% intraday before closing up 9.85%. Behind the sharp rally was a long-term custom AI chip partnership agreement reached between the company and Google. Under the agreement, Google will participate in developing custom semiconductor products related to the TPU ecosystem and receive warrants to purchase up to 58.97 million Marvell shares, with a potential value of nearly $12.2 billion based on the agreed strike price.

Even more notably, this equity arrangement is not merely a financial investment, but is directly linked to the scale of Google's future purchases of Marvell's custom chip products. If the partnership proceeds smoothly, Marvell expects to generate approximately $120 billion in cumulative revenue through fiscal year 2033.

How Google AI Chip Partnership Unlocks Marvell’s Long-Term Revenue Potential

The core of this collaboration is not a single AI chip, but spans multiple key components of Google's TPU ecosystem.

Marvell will participate in developing AI inference accelerators, storage controllers, network interface controllers, memory interface controllers, and near-memory computing products. These products cover multiple segments of AI data centers ranging from computing and storage to high-speed interconnects, signaling that Marvell is expanding beyond its role as a traditional chip supplier to integrate more deeply into Google's AI infrastructure ecosystem.

As demand for generative AI training and inference continues to grow, large cloud computing companies such as Google, Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT) and others are accelerating in-house chip development to reduce reliance on Nvidia's general-purpose GPUs, while lowering computing costs and improving energy efficiency for specific AI workloads.

In addition, under the agreement, Google can purchase up to 58.97 million shares of Marvell stock at a price of $206.58 per share. If fully exercised, the corresponding value would be approximately $12.18 billion, potentially making Google Marvell's fifth-largest shareholder.

This warrant is not granted all at once. Approximately 1.36 million shares will vest quarterly over the first year following the signing of the agreement, while the remaining shares are tied to the scale of Google's future purchases of Marvell's custom products.

Starting from the third quarter of fiscal year 2027 through the end of fiscal year 2033, each time Google cumulatively purchases products resulting in Marvell recognizing $500 million in related product revenue, a tranche of shares will be triggered for vesting.

In other words, the prerequisite for Google to acquire more Marvell shares is the continuous expansion of the custom chip business between the two parties.

Marvell's Valuation Is Already High

Over the past year, Marvell's stock price has more than doubled, and its current trailing 12-month P/E ratio stands at approximately 74.15, implying that the market has already priced in expectations of sustained rapid growth in its custom AI chip and data center businesses.

Meanwhile, competition in the AI chip market is intensifying, with Broadcom, Marvell, and other custom chip vendors competing for orders from tech giants. At the same time, the sustainability of AI capital expenditures, the development cycles of custom chip projects, and customer concentration will also directly affect Marvell's future profitability.

However, Wall Street remains generally optimistic about Marvell's long-term prospects. According to TipRanks, 28 analysts have offered 12-month price targets over the past three months, with an average target of $272.73, representing a potential upside of approximately 14.95% from the latest stock price of $237.27. Among these, the highest price target is $400 and the lowest is $180.

Source: TipRanks

Marvell Stock Technical Analysis: Can MRVL Keep Rising?

Source: TradingView

Technically, the stock price has broken above the downtrend line extending from the high of $329.78 and significantly reclaimed the 20-day moving average at $206.19, indicating an improvement in the previous downward structure. The RSI has risen to 57.49, above its signal line at 50.98, suggesting relatively strong momentum without being overbought.

However, Marvell is currently facing a key resistance zone. The 60-day moving average is located at $237.02, while the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level sits at $246.50. After rising to $245.49 intraday, the stock pulled back and closed below its opening price, showing that profit-taking pressure remains in the $240–$247 range.

If Marvell subsequently holds firm above $246.50 on increased volume, further upside potential could open toward $266.16. Following a breakout, attention can turn to $280 and $294.14.

Conversely, if it fails to break out and pulls back, initial support is seen at $228–$230, with more critical support located at $202.53–$206.19, where the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level converges with the 20-day moving average.