Will Bitcoin Get Back to $100,000 in 2026? It Could All Hinge on This

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has been trading sideways for several months. It has been holding steady at around $60,000, almost as if it's waiting for a catalyst. But whether it goes higher or lower from where it's currently trading could ultimately depend on Congress.

The direction the leading cryptocurrency goes from here on out may hinge on one thing in particular: the Clarity Act.

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Why the Clarity Act is so important for Bitcoin

The Clarity Act is a critical piece of legislation for the cryptocurrency world, as it would create a crucial framework for the industry, determining how crypto assets should be treated. Its approval could lead to greater investment and innovation in the crypto space. And that's arguably what's needed right now, as investors have moved away from crypto this year. Robinhood, for example, whose app is a hub for crypto trading, experienced a 38% decline in cryptocurrency-related revenue in its most recent quarter; there's less interest in crypto of late, but approval of the Clarity Act could change that.

The trouble, however, is that approval is by no means a guarantee. There have been roadblocks and issues along the way, resulting in delays. There was hope that the bill would pass in the summer, but now a vote may not happen until next month. There's growing pessimism that it may not even pass at all this year. And with midterm elections around the corner, there may be even greater uncertainty ahead.

Bitcoin could be heading even lower this year

Regulation inevitably plays a big role in the crypto markets. When President Trump won the election in 2024, cryptocurrencies surged in value, as many investors viewed Trump as a crypto-friendly president who would help the industry.

Now, however, with midterm elections coming up and potentially shaking up control of Congress, it may be more difficult to pass crypto-related legislation. Historically, the party that loses the election ends up winning seats in the midterms. If that happens, investor sentiment in crypto may deteriorate further, and it wouldn't be surprising to see Bitcoin fall to new lows afterward.

Investing in Bitcoin is inherently risky, particularly since so much depends on regulatory developments. Thus, investors who don't have a high risk tolerance may be better off avoiding the top cryptocurrency right now, as there's no guarantee that it won't end up going even lower this year.

David Jagielski, CPA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.