Prediction: If a Bear Market Is Coming, This ETF Will Be the Biggest Long-Term Winner

Since 1872, there have been 26 bull markets and 26 bear markets, according to research from Fidelity. This means that one follows another, and that the current bull market we've been experiencing since 2022 will eventually come to an end.

And some investors are trying to prepare now for a market-wide shift in sentiment. The bull market historically lasts about 3.5 years, on average, so we could be getting close to the current one winding down.

But timing the beginning or the end of any bull or bear market is impossible. Instead, putting your money into an exchange-traded fund that tracks the broad S&P 500 is one of the best long-term moves you can make.

Here's why owning the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEMKT: VOO) is a winning strategy.

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Forget timing the market or trying to pick winning stocks

One of the biggest mistakes investors make is attempting to time the end of a bull market or the bottom of a bear market. Research from Invesco shows that if you had a $100,000 portfolio and missed 10 of the best days in the market between 1995 and 2025, your investment would be halved compared to keeping your money fully invested the entire time.

That means getting the timing wrong -- which is highly likely -- could cost you dearly.

Instead of trying to guess the starts and stops of bull and bear markets, you can put your money in the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF and rest assured that if the market is doing well, you won't be missing out on the gains.

That's because the ETF tracks the entire S&P 500, following the share prices of 500 publicly traded companies across sectors such as consumer goods, energy, industrials, technology, and more.

What's more, this ETF has a fantastic track record. The fund was launched in 2010 and has had a historical average annual return of 14.9% since its inception. You won't earn that much every year, of course, but leaving your money in the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF will help ensure that you're benefiting from the market's gains when they come along.

And if we go back even further, the S&P 500's average annual return since its launch in 1957 has been 10%. Again, it's not guaranteed you'll earn that much, but it is an indicator of the index's potential.

Even better, the Vanguard ETF charges an annual expense ratio of only 0.03%, which means you'll hold onto more of the gains your money makes. For example, if you have $10,000 invested in the Vanguard fund, your annual expenses will be just $3.

Plan for the inevitable bear market now

There's no way around a bear market, so one of the best things you can do is to prepare for one now by putting some of your money into the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF.

You'll have the benefit of knowing that whenever the market turns around, your money will catch the growth wave from the S&P 500. And you'll sleep a little better knowing your money is spread across many publicly traded companies, so you don't have to guess which company or sector will benefit the most.

Chris Neiger has positions in Vanguard S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Vanguard S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.