History Shows Right Now Could Be a Fantastic Time to Invest in the Stock Market. Here's Why.

Source The Motley Fool

Key Points

  • The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF is a basic index fund, but some interesting history makes it an intriguing option for investors right now.

  • The same goes for the high-growth Invesco QQQ ETF.

  • How stocks act before and following elections may be revealing for these ETFs.

  • 10 stocks we like better than Vanguard S&P 500 ETF ›

Experienced investors know that politics and Wall Street often intersect. Compounding that issue in the near term is this year's status as a midterm election year.

No candidates or parties are being endorsed here; the "stump speech" is about why investors of all experience levels should be students of market history. Rookies and experienced investors alike may find it easier to stay the course with exchange-traded funds (ETFs) such as the Invesco QQQ ETF (NASDAQ: QQQ) and the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEMKT: VOO).

Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »

A person putting a ballot into the ballot box.

Image source: Getty Images.

On multiple levels, history bodes well for the Invesco fund and the VOO ETF. Let's examine why.

Time to open the market history books

One of investing's oldest (and frequently proven accurate) sayings is: "History doesn't always repeat, but it often rhymes." So let's talk history. Since 1957, the S&P 500 has notched average annual returns of 10%, confirming the benefits of long-term investing.

However, history also says that of the four years in the presidential cycle, the midterm election year is the worst for stocks. In those years, the S&P 500 averaged a gain of just 4.9%, or less than half the historical average. But even when accounting for that somewhat ominous history, the QQQ ETF and its Vanguard S&P 500 counterpart are up 19.5% and 14.7%, respectively, year to date.

Under any circumstances, those are impressive showings, and they confirm the validity of not pulling out of stocks due to electoral headlines. But the returns delivered by the Invesco and Vanguard ETFs this year are all the more noteworthy when you consider that midterm election-year lethargy for stocks isn't a new phenomenon. In financial market terms, it's almost ancient. Since 1950, the midterm year has, on average, been the one in which stocks delivered the smallest gains or worst performance.

A lot can change between now and November, but with equities defying midterm-election-year precedent, it's clear that stocks are in a strong position. Another history lesson underscores why that's important to investors shopping today.

Another history lesson

If you're planning to play the long game, you may want to consider buying stocks in the near term for another reason, one backed by historical precedent. While the midterm election year is usually the most trying for equities, the following year is typically the best.

Who would want to ditch the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF today when the index it tracks delivers an average gain of 14.5% in the third year of the presidential cycle? The answer should be "nobody." Reasons abound as to why the third year is usually the best, but some experts believe it's because presidents, regardless of party, are looking to juice the economy. That can benefit growth stocks and consumer names. Good news: The Invesco QQQ ETF allocates nearly 83% of its weight to technology and consumer cyclical stocks.

If you're a long-term investor, you can tap into practical ETFs, such as the Invesco QQQ ETF and the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, to get through this year -- while positioning for what could be impressive upside in 2027, if history holds up.

Should you buy stock in Vanguard S&P 500 ETF right now?

Before you buy stock in Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Vanguard S&P 500 ETF wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $421,511!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,381,960!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 981% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 216% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of August 17, 2026.

Todd Shriber has positions in Vanguard S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Vanguard S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
Gold Price Forecast: Gold May Break $4,500 as Fed Rate-Hike Expectations Continue to CoolAs of the European session on August 17, gold prices (XAUUSD) were trading above $4,400, up about 0.7% on the day and reaching an intraday high of $4,416.43, extending last Friday's gains
Author  TradingKey
12 hours ago
As of the European session on August 17, gold prices (XAUUSD) were trading above $4,400, up about 0.7% on the day and reaching an intraday high of $4,416.43, extending last Friday's gains
placeholder
Gold gains momentum to near $4,400 as Fed hike expectations drop despite Us-Iran tensionsGold price (XAU/USD) gains momentum to around $4,395 during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The precious metal extends the rally as cooling US inflation data has dampened expectations for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike. 
Author  FXStreet
21 hours ago
Gold price (XAU/USD) gains momentum to around $4,395 during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The precious metal extends the rally as cooling US inflation data has dampened expectations for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike. 
placeholder
Copper Price Forecast: Tight Supply Pushes Price Above $14,000, Can Copper Reach $15,000?As of the European session on August 14, international spot copper prices (COPPER) continued to fluctuate near historical highs, trading around $14,070, down slightly by 0.3% intraday. De
Author  TradingKey
Aug 14, Fri
As of the European session on August 14, international spot copper prices (COPPER) continued to fluctuate near historical highs, trading around $14,070, down slightly by 0.3% intraday. De
placeholder
WTI remains below $80.50 as traders monitor diplomatic efforts to reopen HormuzWest Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price remains subdued for the third successive day, trading around $80.30 per barrel during the Asian hours on Friday. Crude oil prices edge lower as investors adopt a wait-and-see approach, closely monitoring diplomatic attempts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Author  FXStreet
Aug 14, Fri
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price remains subdued for the third successive day, trading around $80.30 per barrel during the Asian hours on Friday. Crude oil prices edge lower as investors adopt a wait-and-see approach, closely monitoring diplomatic attempts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
placeholder
Forex Today: US Dollar stabilizes ahead of next batch of US dataHere is what you need to know on Thursday, August 13:
Author  FXStreet
Aug 13, Thu
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, August 13:
goTop
quote