Is Apple (AAPL) Still a Buy at $309? Breaking Down Tim Cook's Final Earnings Report

TradingKey - Apple (NASDAQ: (AAPL) dropped from its record high of $342.89 to around $309 following Tim Cook’s last earnings call as CEO on July 30, which was the same week Apple traded above $5 trillion market cap. Results were actually very solid on revenue ($109.4B, +16%), iPhone ($54.25B, +22%, being the third straight quarter above 20% iPhone growth, the first time that has happened since the pandemic upgrade cycle), and EPS ($2.02, +29%). Services came in at $30.74B, below the $31.22B consensus, and Greater China was $18.8B, below the $19.6B consensus. John Ternus will become CEO on September 1. At $309, the 100-period EMA is the line.

What Tim Cook’s Last Earnings Call Said

Tim Cook’s 89th and final earnings call as CEO offered positive financial news for his successor, Ternus. Cook described this quarter as Apple’s strongest ever and stated that every geographic segment set new records, as well as upgrade numbers. This quarter showed unprecedented growth in upgrading numbers, something that the company has not seen since the 2021. The new iPhone 17 line-up was described as the first line-up to trigger a significant upgrade growth cycle and was aided by the new line-up’s enhanced AI features. Cook continued the call with Ternus and did not comment on any products, in line with the covered operational secrecy that Apple is known for.

The situations that Cook is leaving for Ternus to handle include the ‘100 year flood’ (Cook’s words) of manufacturing capacity for chips around the world, which has caused a price increase for the Mac and iPad. Currently, it is unknown if increases in pricing for the iPhone are also on the horizon. The Google-powered Siri AI overhaul comes out with the September iPhone hardware, which will be Ternus’ first product event. Revenue from China has missed estimates several times in a row as Huawei’s recovery gathers steam. Furthermore, the EU is looking into whether the Google-Siri deal violates Digital Markets Act regulations.

The Two Misses and How Serious They Are

Services missed by $480M ($30.74B vs. the consensus of $31.22B). That’s only 1.5%, especially since it came after a record $30.98B Q2. The sequential decline is real, but not much. Apple raised its music subscription price in July, which undoubtedly caused some churn. The structural Services story has not changed: 2.2 billion active devices, 92% retention rate, and 70%+ margins. One miss is noise. Multiple misses in a row could change the conversation.

China missed by $800M as Huawei’s domestic premium smartphone recovery continues luring potential iPhone switchers away. Cook also mentioned that Apple is considering Chinese memory suppliers for non-US Apple devices, adding a supply chain angle to the geographic revenue story heading into Ternus’ tenure.

The Ternus Transition - Impacts and Inactions

John Ternus, who is now Apple’s CEO, assumed the responsibility of Apple Silicon overseeing Mac’s hardware from M1 to M4, the chips that helped consolidate Mac’s position as the best professional laptops. Ternus also oversaw Apple’s transition from its own memory chips to third-party memory; Ternus also has a great understanding of the memory challenges Apple will face. We don’t know what he will do with regulation, AI and China as these personally challenged Cook for 15 years. Cook staying on as Executive Chairman will probably help fill that gap. Ternus’s first Quarterly Earnings Call will be in October, and investors will be interested to hear his take on AI and Services.

AAPL Technical Setup

Apple fell from $342.89 to $309, with the stock touching the 100 period EMA located at $309.41 — the last support of the medium-term uptrend. RSI is at 25 and is deeply oversold.

Apple (AAPL) Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

A close above $309.41 would target $320.27 and $329.61. A close below $309 would target $300.56 and $288.58. Monday, August 4 will be the first regular trading day following the post-earnings, after-hours decline, and will set the technical direction.

Key Levels

• Q3 results in Revenue of $109.4 (+16%). iPhones +22%, and 3 consecutive +20% quarters. EPS at $2.02 (+29%).
• Q3 earnings also reported Services at $30.74B (expected $31.22B) and China at $18.8B (expected $19.6B).
• Tim Cook will transition from CEO to Executive Chairman August 31 and John Ternus will be CEO from September 1.
• September will also see the launch of Ternus’s first product at an Apple event, the AI-enhanced Siri and updated iPhones.
• 100 EMA (critical) is at $309.41 with support below at $300.56 and $288.58, and resistance at $320.27, $329.61 and $344.64.

Is the Services Miss a Problem or a One-Quarter Blip?

A single miss following a record quarter is likely just that — noise. The subscription music service price increase in July caused a disruption in the quarter-over-quarter pattern. The situation structurally remains the same (2.2 billion devices, 92% retention, 70%-plus margins). If Q4 FY2026 under Ternus also misses, then the situation will be different. Until that time, the $480 million shortfall does not warrant a re-evaluation of the Services multiple.

Is Apple a Buy at $309?

Apple is estimated to trade at about 29 times the company’s expected earnings, on a business generating 16% revenue growth, and also generating free cash flows of $270 billion, with an additional $100 billion in share buybacks. This is a more favorable valuation than Apple’s five-year average. The three-quarter iPhone streak, the September AI Siri launch, and the $309 price with 100-EMA support all indicate a price recovery. The CEO transition, Services deceleration, and China cause legitimate concern and weigh on the price, but the evidence suggests a Buy for $309. After October’s earnings, where Services either rebounds above $31 billion or confirms the trend, a more comprehensive assessment will then be possible.

Bottom Line

Apple, on the one hand, showcased the strongest performance Tim Cook has ever shown in his final quarter in the company, based on revenues and iPhone sales. On the other hand, based on the shortcoming in Apple services and on the disappointment with China, the stock is now hovering at $309, with the RSI at 25, breaking the 100-period EMA. On September 1, Cook’s CEO spot will be occupied by Company’s current COO, Sabih Ternus, which justifies an uncertainty premium in the near future, as the stock trade at $342 level.

It’s easy to consider the stock at $309 as a buying opportunity in light of the three consecutive quarters of record-breaking sales, the improvements in Siri, and given that the realtor is the cheapest in two years, rather than a risk, especially since the outlook for Q4 revenue in the services segment is set to improve, and in light of the given earnings Ternus will hopefully have a clear picture of the company’s future in AI during his first earning call in October.