Jensen Huang Predicted Nvidia Would Collect $1 Trillion in Chip Sales Through 2027. Is Nvidia Still on Pace?

During the company's GTC conference in March, Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang expressed confidence in the company's opportunity in the artificial intelligence (AI) chip market.

"We saw $500 billion of very high confidence demand and purchase orders for Blackwell and Rubin through 2026," Huang said. "I'm here to tell you that right now where I stand ... I see through 2027 at least $1 trillion."

Recent results indicate that Nvidia is very much on pace to hit that target -- but some risks could derail its momentum.

Jensen Huang speaking at a conference. Image source: Nvidia.

Nvidia's growth path

Over the past year, Nvidia's data center revenue made up roughly 90% of its total revenue, and its Blackwell chips have been the main engine behind that growth. In the fiscal first quarter of 2027 (which ends in January), data center revenue grew 92% year over year to $75 billion.

In fiscal 2026, which mostly aligns with calendar 2025, Nvidia generated $216 billion in total revenue, with nearly $194 billion from data centers. Wall Street's consensus estimate currently forecasts total revenue of $394 billion this year and $561 billion next year -- about $1.17 trillion in cumulative total revenue since last year.

If Nvidia's data center segment remains about 90% of total revenue, that implies cumulative data center sales from last year -- largely from Blackwell and the new Rubin chips -- will exceed $1 trillion by the end of next year.

Management has stuck with that forecast. During the company's fiscal first-quarter earnings call, CFO Colette Kress said, "We are continuing to work vigorously on our supply chain ecosystem to address the incredible demand we see ahead of us, giving us full confidence in the $1 trillion in Blackwell and Rubin revenue we foresee from 2025 through calendar 2027."

However, Kress' comment about working on its supply chain implies the risks that could prevent Nvidia from meeting its forecast.

Risks to watch

A key risk is execution. AI demand has created one huge bottleneck from data center construction to memory and other components needed to build advanced chips. Demand for Nvidia's hardware looks enormous, but the open question is whether Nvidia can ship enough to meet it.

Another risk is competition from Nvidia's own customers, such as Amazon and Alphabet's Google, which are designing custom AI chips for their cloud platforms. Top cloud companies have previously made up about half of Nvidia's data center revenue. If those customers shift more workloads to in-house silicon, Nvidia's growth could slow.

That's also why Nvidia has been striking partnerships with neocloud and sovereign customers, including IREN and leading Japanese manufacturers. Nvidia needs to reduce its dependence on sales to big tech companies that are increasingly focusing on their own chips.

The $1 trillion cumulative sales target is still in play -- but it isn't guaranteed. If the data center market slows or supply constraints limit Nvidia's ability to fulfill orders, it could pressure growth and the stock.

John Ballard has positions in Amazon, Iren, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.