AST SpaceMobile vs. Lockheed Martin: Which Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?

Choosing between a high-growth satellite innovator and a bedrock industrial giant requires balancing future potential against current stability as you evaluate AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) and Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT).

AST SpaceMobile represents an ambitious bet on universal cellular connectivity through satellites, while Lockheed Martin offers a mature business model centered on global security and aerospace. Both companies sit at the intersection of technology and infrastructure but operate with vastly different financial profiles and risk tolerances for retail investors.

The case for AST SpaceMobile

AST SpaceMobile aims to eliminate cellular dead zones by connecting standard smartphones directly to its satellite constellation. The company operates a revenue-sharing model with over 50 mobile network operators, including definitive commercial agreements with giants like AT&T and Verizon. Customer concentration like this adds a layer of risk to the business, as the company relies heavily on these few major partners to reach their combined 3 billion subscribers. A confirmed partnership with Rakuten in June 2026 further highlights the company's efforts to expand its international footprint.

In FY 2025, revenue reached nearly $70.9 million, which represents a massive increase from the roughly $4.4 million reported in the previous year. Despite this growth, the company recorded a net loss of approximately $341.9 million during the same period. This trend reflects a business in its early stages of commercialization, where high research and deployment costs currently outweigh the initial revenue generated from its nascent space-based network.

As of its December 2025 balance sheet, the current ratio is close to 16.4x, which measures a company's ability to pay its short-term obligations with assets that can be converted to cash quickly. The debt-to-equity ratio, which compares total debt relative to what shareholders own, sits at roughly 1.2x. Free cash flow, calculated as cash from operations minus capital expenditures, was negative $1.1 billion in FY 2025, indicating that the company is still spending heavily to build out its satellite infrastructure.

The case for Lockheed Martin

Lockheed Martin is a titan among defense stocks, serving as the primary contractor for the F-35 fighter jet program. The company derived nearly 72% of its 2025 sales from the U.S. Government, underscoring its critical role in national security. Its recent $3.5 billion acquisition of Ultra Maritime in July 2026 has expanded its capabilities in undersea defense, diversifying its portfolio across air, land, sea, and space domains.

In FY 2025, revenue reached approximately $75.1 billion, representing a growth of nearly 5.7% compared to the prior year. The company remains highly profitable, generating a net income of close to $5.0 billion, which translates to a net margin of roughly 6.7%. Net margin measures the percentage of revenue that remains as profit after all operating expenses, interest, and taxes have been paid.

As of its December 2025 balance sheet, Lockheed Martin reported a debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 3.2x. Its current ratio is nearly 1.1x, suggesting it maintains enough liquid assets to cover its immediate liabilities. The company generated a healthy free cash flow of roughly $6.9 billion in FY 2025, providing ample capital to fund dividends, share repurchases, and further research into advanced defense technologies.

Risk profile comparison

AST SpaceMobile faces significant capital and liquidity hurdles, recently attempting to address these needs through a $1 billion convertible note offering. The company is also heavily dependent on regulatory approvals from the FCC and international bodies to access the spectrum required for its services. Furthermore, it faces intense competition from other low-earth orbit constellations, including projects backed by Amazon, which could pressure pricing and market share in the emerging satellite broadband industry.

Lockheed Martin deals with a different set of risks, primarily its heavy reliance on U.S. government defense spending. Any shifts in political priorities or budget cuts could materially impact its contract continuity, especially regarding the F-35 program which accounts for nearly 27% of sales. Additionally, the company is navigating a $4.25 billion federal lawsuit involving technology misappropriation and must constantly defend against sophisticated cyberattacks that target its sensitive intellectual property.

Valuation comparison

Lockheed Martin trades at a much lower multiple of its sales and earnings estimates, while AST SpaceMobile commands a high premium due to its rapid growth phase.

Valuation metrics sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) and may differ from other data providers.

The Forward P/E ratio compares a company's stock price to its expected earnings over the next twelve months, while the P/S ratio measures the market value of the company against its annual revenue.

Which stock would I buy in 2026?

I'd go with Lockheed Martin. AST SpaceMobile is building something fascinating with a large addressable market, and the AT&T partnership and early commercial revenue are encouraging signs that the technology can work at scale. For investors with a high risk tolerance and a very long horizon, it’s an interesting speculative bet.

But Lockheed just delivered one of its strongest quarters in years. Sales grew sharply and free cash flow surged from nearly nothing to several billion dollars. The company booked an enormous number of new orders, pushing its backlog to a record high. Management raised its full-year outlook on the strength of that momentum, and the dividend keeps growing.

Defense spending tailwinds are strong and durable, and Lockheed sits at the center of them with programs like the F-35 and THAAD that are deeply embedded in the national security infrastructure of the U.S. and its allies. AST is a bet on what could be, but Lockheed is already delivering. For a long-term investor, that distinction is worth a lot.

Sara Appino has positions in Amazon. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends AST SpaceMobile and Amazon. The Motley Fool recommends Lockheed Martin and Verizon Communications. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.