Donald Trump's USTR Hit Brazil With a 25% Section 301 Tariff on July 15. Here's How That Could Play Out for These 2 Stocks.

The Trump administration has officially opened a new chapter in its trade strategy. On July 15, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) announced a 25% Section 301 tariff on many Brazilian imports, citing what it described as unfair trade practices involving digital payments, intellectual property, market access, and other policies.

The tariffs took effect on July 22 and cover thousands of products, although several key imports, including coffee, beef, orange juice, and aerospace components, are exempt. Some companies stand to benefit, and some stand to get hurt. Here are two worth watching.

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1. Nucor

One potential beneficiary is North Carolina-headquartered Nucor (NYSE: NUE). Brazil is one of the largest foreign suppliers of steel-related products to the United States, particularly pig iron, a key raw material used in electric arc furnaces. While some steel products were excluded from the new tariffs because they are already subject to separate Section 232 duties, the broader trade action could still encourage buyers to source more materials domestically where possible. And that could create a favorable backdrop for Nucor.

Nucor is North America's largest steel producer and continues investing billions of dollars in expanding production capacity. Its downstream businesses also give it exposure to construction, infrastructure, manufacturing, and energy markets.

To be sure, tariffs alone -- which importers pay -- won't determine Nucor's future earnings. Steel demand ultimately depends on industrial activity and construction spending. But trade barriers that reduce import competition have historically supported domestic pricing and utilization rates. So if the current tariff regime remains in place, Nucor could be among the companies that benefit indirectly.

2. Embraer

On the other side of the equation sits Sao Paolo-headquartered Embraer (NYSE: EMBJ). This Brazilian aircraft manufacturer gets nearly 60% of its revenue from North America, making access to the U.S. market critically important.

The good news is that the final tariff list exempted civil aircraft and hundreds of aerospace-related products, limiting the direct impact on Embraer's U.S. business. This exemption reflects the importance of integrated aerospace supply chains between the United States and Brazil.

Still, the company isn't completely insulated. Trade disputes rarely remain static. Additional tariffs, retaliatory measures, or broader restrictions could increase uncertainty for future aircraft orders or complicate cross-border supply chains. Even if aerospace remains exempt, prolonged trade tensions could weigh on investor sentiment toward Brazilian exporters generally.

Exposure to Brazil

The truth is, tariffs rarely produce clear winners and losers overnight. And indeed, plenty of companies can adapt by shifting suppliers, renegotiating contracts, or passing higher costs on to customers. Others benefit simply because foreign competitors become less price-competitive.

For now, however, the companies with the greatest exposure to Brazilian imports (or those competing directly against them) are likely to see the biggest effects. Nucor appears positioned to benefit if domestic steel demand shifts toward U.S. producers, while Embraer may continue operating largely unaffected as long as aerospace exemptions remain intact.

A more important scenario for investors to consider right now is whether Brazil will retaliate and whether this will become the first step in a broader expansion of Section 301 tariffs.

Jeff Siegel has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Embraer. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.