Intel (INTC) Surged 8% Tuesday on Three Catalysts - Earnings Tomorrow

TradingKey - Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) ended Tuesday at $105.45 after rising 8.4%, marking the chipmaker's biggest one-day jump in a number of months. The surge was propelled by three concrete advances: a Xeon 6700P update enabling memory speeds as high as 8000 MT/s for a total memory bandwidth increase of up to 20% with production starting in August to September of 2026; an enhanced partnership with Google Cloud focused on AI; and a major cloud service provider manufacturing commitment for the 18A process node.

Meanwhile, yields for 18A were 85% at last report as opposed to 65% last quarter, making Intel second only to TSMC, whose yields for N2 came to nearly 90%. Intel reports Q2 2026 earnings Thursday July 23 after the close. Expectations: Revenue $14.4 billion, non-GAAP EPS $0.22. Next chart hurdle is the 50-day moving average of $106.94.

What Drove the 8.4% Rally Yesterday: Three New Confirmed Catalysts for Intel

Three separate pieces of news drove Intel to its highest one-day performance in a number of months. First, Intel said that some of its Xeon 6700P processors will be capable of supporting 1DPC 8000 MT/s RDIMM memory, whereas the current standard for this memory is 6400 MT/s. The performance increase will be up to 20% more total memory bandwidth, 25% faster memory speed, and a reduction in latency by around 6%. Production for this technology is expected to begin in August to September 2026. Memory bandwidth matters for customers of AI data centers, who leverage Xeon CPUs to orchestrate the flow of data to and from GPU accelerators. 

Memory bandwidth is one of the real choke points for AI inference, and a 20% performance jump will make the inference faster for data centre owners at the same time as it reduces the cost of computing for each piece of inference.

In addition, Intel's AI partnership with Google Cloud has been furthered, including a plan for Google Cloud to have Gemini Enterprise run on Intel's engineering, supply chain, and corporate operations. And the relationship works both ways. Intel is a customer of Google Cloud's AI tool suite, and Google Cloud is a client of Intel's foundry business.

And third, the most important for the long term, Intel says its 18A technology secured a manufacturing commitment from a major cloud service provider. This is the first time it can be said with certainty Intel foundry secured a commercial contract of significant size at 18A. 

This is a key distinction because this makes Intel foundry a business with real external revenue instead of a cost centre that just has plans for potential customers. This comes after the fact that 18A has improved yields from 65% to 85%. So Intel foundry is no longer "we are going to make chips in the future" but actually "we are making chips now."

18A Yields at 85%: Why It Matters That It Is That Number

Yield in semiconductor manufacturing means the percentage of wafers on a manufacturing run that work as expected. Intel's 18A was at 85% in the most recent production run, up from 65% last quarter, as reported by industry sources cited in Blockonomi. TSMC reports yields at 90% for its N2 technology. That makes Intel competitive with the world's leading chipmaker, rather than struggling behind it. This number is important because at 85%, Intel can profitably manufacture chips for other companies and do so in accordance with foundry customer economics. 

At 65%, the economics were close, and customers would be putting their own deliveries on the line. This is what enables the Apple and Microsoft design partner announcements to translate into real orders in the very near future.

In another recent development, Intel is the first company to ship in volume high-volume logic chips at ASML's High-NA EUV technology. Some of Intel's Panther Lake chips are already ready to be produced at the new EUV level, with select Panther Lake layers now dual-qualified for 0.55 NA scanners. This High-NA EUV enables chips to be made with features smaller than the ones on today's 0.33 NA chips, and more tightly packed on the chip. 

ASML said that the production of Panther Lake has been done on High-NA 0.55 NA in its earnings call on July 15, explicitly citing Intel as the first customer. It matters that an outside supplier of equipment, and that one supplier, said that Intel had production running High-NA EUV. This means more than management statements about how Intel thinks the production status is for Intel foundry. 

This means more than a supply chain source citing that the equipment supplier confirmed production is ready. It means that the equipment supplier with real visibility into Intel's production status said that the production is ready. Combined with 85% yields, this puts the foundry case in better shape heading into Thursday.

INTC Technical Setup - $106.94 EMA Resistance, RSI 56, Key Levels

In the 4H timeframe, INTC, currently at $105.45, is running into the 50 EMA at $106.94, the 100 EMA at $108.55, and is hitting the top of the downward sloping channel. As each of those EMAs and RSI at 56.3, which shows buyers gaining momentum and coming out of the oversold condition, is resisting INTC at $105.45. A strong close above $106.94 indicates the first breakout of the channel.

Intel (INTC) Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

By this price action, the next resistance is $116.70. On the downside, $98.97 is the first support, then $89.45. The resistance of the EMAs, along with the earnings report this Thursday, will determine if the channel breaks upwards.

Tuesday close: $105.45 (+8.4%). Three reasons: Xeon Memory, Google Deal, 18A Cloud commitment.

Xeon Upgrade: 8000 MT/s RDIMMs: +20% Memory Bandwidth, +25% Faster, +6% Lower Latency. Production Aug-Sep 2026.

18A Foundry: Cloud CSP Commitment Established. Yields 85% (from 65%). ASML High-NA first.

Q2 Earnings: Thursday, July 23, after market close. Earnings call starts at 2:00 PM PDT.

Analyst Consensus: Revenue = $14.4B, Non-GAAP Earnings Per Share = $0.22. Options Pricing Implies 12% Implied Volatility.

Chart Levels: Resistance = $106.94 and $108.55 EMAs, then $116.70. Support = $98.97, $89.45.

What Drove Intel's 8.4% Rally on Tuesday July 21?

Three known developments drove the rally. First, Intel announced that Xeon 6700P Processors will support 8000 MT/s RDIMM Memory by the Aug-Sep timeframe of 2026 and will be able to provide 20% More Memory Bandwidth, 25% Faster, and 6% Lower Latency compared to the 6400 MT/s. Second, Intel is expanding their AI collaboration with Google Cloud by deploying the Gemini Enterprise across Intel operations.

Finally and most significantly, Intel’s 18A Process Node received a confirmed external commercial order (cloud scale) with the confirmed manufacturing commitment of a large Cloud Service Provider and 18A Process Node. Additionally, Intel’s 18A Process Node yields improved to around 85% from 65% last quarter, and ASML confirmed that Intel will be the first company advancing High-NA EUV Logic chips

What Does the 18A Yield Improvement to 85% Mean for Intel's Foundry Business?

Yield refers to the proportion of chips produced that fulfill the requirements of a given specification. Yield at 65% meant Intel Foundry operations were economically unviable, and customers could expect unfulfilled orders. With a yield of 85%, Intel can commercially manufacture chips for external customers while remaining within the standard cost structures of a foundry. 

TSMC’s N2 is reportedly around 90%. Thus, Intel’s 85% yield is competitively close, and is not an overly aspirational target. This yield improvement means that the Partnership announcements by Apple and Microsoft and other stakeholders is evidence of imminent purchase orders. Furthermore, the major cloud service provider engagement revealed today is solid evidence commercial orders rather than pilot orders are being placed.

What Should Investors Focus on at Thursday's Q2 Earnings?

Intel shares increased by 8.4% on Tuesday, and expectations are high for Thursday. Investors anticipate a revenue of $14.4 billion and a non-GAAP EPS of $0.22. However, the four disclosures listed below will impact the stock the most: who the 18A cloud customer(s) are and/or the size of their business, confirmation of the 85% target for 18A yields, any estimates related to Intel Foundry’s external revenue in the second half of 2026, and the expected growth for the Data Center and AI segment in Q3, where growth in Q1 of 22% is expected to be sustained or further improved. Options are currently trading with a 12% price variability, reflecting that the market has not fully priced the outcomes.

Bottom Line

Intel increased by 8.4% on Tuesday, likely due to an upgrade for Intel’s Xeon 8000 MT memory slated for release between August and September 2026, Intel’s expanding partnership with Google Cloud for AI, and for the first time a confirmed commitment for an 18A cloud service provider. 18A yields are at 85%, an increase from 65%, and ASML has noted that Intel has become the first company to ship large-volume logic chips using High-NA EUV.

Currently, the 50-period EMA sits at $106.94, while the 100-period EMA is at $108.55. If Intel closes above the $108.55 mark, the target would be $116.70. Earnings reports released on Thursday with a consensus of $14.4 billion and an implied move of 12% would clarify the target from the channel.