Tesla (TSLA) Q2 Earnings Wednesday — 480K Deliveries, 7.6% Options Swing

TradingKey - Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is trading around $380 as it enters earnings week, with Friday's close showing a 2.6% decline, and trading below its 50-period ($396.49) and 100-period ($401.24) EMAs. Earnings will be reported after market close on Wednesday, July 22. Tesla delivered a record 480,126 vehicles in the second quarter, 25% higher than last year and exceeding estimates of 402,776. Energy storage deployments also set a record at 13.5 GWh. The street estimates earnings at $0.54 on revenues of $26.4 billion. Options are pricing a 7.6% move in either direction. The RSI is at 38. Support is at $369.34 (then $355.26). For now, the first step on a recovery would be to close above $386.72.

Margins Will Either Validate Deliveries or Undercut Them

With a record 480,126 vehicle deliveries in Q2 2026, and a quarterly record that was ~19% higher than the ~402,776 vehicle estimate, the revenue threshold has been set for the upcoming earnings report. Q2 2026 production of 451,758 units resulted in total deliveries exceeding production during the quarter for the first time in many quarters, which also reduced some of the inventory stockpiled during the year. Q2 vehicle deliveries were reported as 467,762 and 12,364 of other models, all of which are the Model 3 and Y. The delivery estimate was reported in the production and delivery report on July 2, 2026 and it is still unknown if Tesla had a profitable quarter.

The focus for Wednesday will be on Tesla’s automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits. In order to help stimulate demand, Tesla has made use of financing offers, price changes, and incentives. Each of these has a direct cost associated which impacts margin. Edison Yu of Deutsche Bank anticipates an adjusted EPS of $0.36, substantially lower than $0.54 EPS estimate, and expects lower EPS due to more aggressive promotional strategies, and due to higher input costs (lithium, copper, and memory). Analyst estimates for EPS range from $0.36 to $0.54, which is a considerable spread due to the significant volume increase over the quarter, coupled with the uncertainty of gross profit for that increase in volume. Automotive gross margin, excluding regulatory credits in Q1, was approximately 12.5%, and investors will want to see that number remain the same or better.

Energy Storage and the Second Business That is Starting to Matter

Tesla recorded a new all-time high for energy storage products with 13.5 GWh in Q2. This is a great recovery from Q1, which had 8.8 GWh. In the past few quarters, the energy division (Megapack and Powerwall) has become more significant in Tesla’s overall financials. Tesla is estimated to have energy sales of $12.8 billion (2025) and $18.3 billion (2026), with energy gross margin at 29%. Automotive gross margins have been lower than energy gross margins for a number of quarters.

The earnings call will provide insight on Megapack deployment capacity, battery-cell availability, and the potential update to Tesla’s energy deployment forecast for H2 2026.

Strong energy results may ease automotive margin pressures in Tesla’s earnings report, but it won’t offset the impact of significant automotive profitability erosion. This is further compounded by the fact that automotive sales account for more than two-thirds of total revenue. Earlier in the year, Tesla increased its forecast for capital expenditures in 2026 to over $25 billion, which covers factories and other infrastructure, AI capabilities, Cybercab, battery IR, and Optimus. In the earnings call, the market will look for evidence that cash generation from the established vehicle and energy businesses will cover these expenditures.

Tesla’s Current Valuation, Cybercab, Robotaxi, and What Musk Must Address

With a P/E of ~349, the market expects substantial future revenues from autonomous transportation, AI, and Robotics. Currently, all these areas are expected to generate minimal profits. During the Q1 call, Musk was more cautious, predicting that revenue from robotaxis would not be material in 2026 and expressing optimism that it would be operational in a ‘baker’s dozen’ states by New Year’s Eve 2026. Reuters reported long wait times and sporadic coverage in Dallas, a 50 vehicle estimated fleet in Austin, and coverage in Houston. A different Reuters report questioned whether Full Self-Driving was even safe for wide scale deployment.

Wednesday's call will be the first time there will be an opportunity to share updated fleet numbers, more expanded operating locations, and a Cybercab production timeline since the investigations. The options market pricing a 7.6% move in either direction indicates that the call's tone on autonomy could be just as important as the financial results to the stock. Morgan Stanley was slightly more positive on Tesla, raising its target price to $417 from $415, and Wells Fargo increased its target to $130 from $125, warning of a potential 67% downside. The average target price for TSLA from analysts is $397.89, right around Friday's closing price, showing that the analysts are essentially at a neutral position on the stock. TSLA, by total count, is rated a strong buy by seven analysts, a buy by 17, a hold by 24, a sell by six, and a strong sell by one.

TSLA Technical Setup – Below EMAs, RSI 38, Key Levels for the Week

In the 4H, TSLA, at $380, is below the 50 EMA at $396.49 and the 100 EMA at $401.24, and is being contained by a July descending trendline. RSI is near 38 and approaching oversold, but there is no indication of reversal yet. The former support at $386.72 is now resistance, and targets are set at $369.34 and $355.26, respectively.

A confirmed close above $386.72 for the week is the first step to test the EMA cluster at $396 to $401. A positive earnings report set for release on Wednesday, with an improvement on auto margins and a more developed timeframe for the robotaxi, is the potential positive catalyst needed for the reclaim.

Tesla (TSLA) Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

Earnings: Wednesday July 22, (Confirmed) After Market Close

Q2 Deliveries: 480,126 (Record, +25% YoY, > 402,776 Est.) Energy:  13.5 GWh (Record)

Expected numbers: Revenue, $26.4B, EPS, $0.54; Deutsche Bank (bear) $0.36 EPS

Options Implied: 7.6% Move Either Way after Wednesday

Bull Trigger: Close Confirmed Above $386.72 — Target $396 and $401 EMA Cluster

Bear Scenario: $369.34 Support; Break Below $369.34 Open $355.26

What Does Tesla Need to Show on Wednesday to Reverse the Decline?

Here are the three things Wednesday's Q2 Earnings need to show to reverse the recent weakness in TSLA. First, Gross Profit Margin for Automotive (Ex. Regulatory Credits) is at least Q1's 12.5% (approx.), showing that record deliveries are profitable and are not driven by Incentives. Second, the 13.5 GWh of Energy Storage that was deployed represents the $4B to $5B of Gross Profit that is being modeled by the analysts, and Energy Margin and Revenue are showing progress. 

Lastly, Tesla needs to show positive progress with the robotaxi, and this will give the 349x P/E ratio of TSLA some fundamental support. Without-positive Robotaxi progress and gross margins, it's likely that a Revenue Beat alone will not reverse the current technicals.

Why Is the EPS Range So Wide From $0.36 to $0.54?

Analyzing Deutsche Bank's EPS estimate of $0.36 against the $0.54 consensus shows the uncertainty surrounding Tesla's Q2 sales promotions and pricing. Pressure has been mounting against Tesla's automotive gross margin, particularly from incentive financing, pricing adjustments by market, and increasing costs of production inputs.

Deutsche Bank has estimated $0.36 EPS assuming Tesla aggressively promoted sales to achieve record sales of 480,126 and that gross margins, therefore, would be lower. The margin would be around $0.54 if the costs of production were offset by better factory utilization and increased volume sales. The automotive gross margin, ex-credits, will be released Wednesday.

What Is the Cybercab and When Does Tesla Expect to Produce It?

The Cybercab is Tesla's first purpose built autonomous robotaxi and the first vehicle designed to be part of an autonomous, shared fleet of robotaxis, as it has no steering wheel or pedals. Tesla has shown the Cybercab and confirmed that production will take place, yet a commercial start has not been said. On the Q1 2026 call, Musk suggested that robotaxis would not be a significant revenue stream in 2026.

The production timeline for the Cybercab will likely be addressed on Wednesday and is considered one of the most important for Tesla's valuation in the long term with the current 349x P/E ratio on the stock.

Bottom Line

Tesla opts to forego the Q2 earnings report at $380: below both EMAs and from $386.72 (support) with RSI ~ 38. Record deliveries of 480,126 for the quarter coupled with 13.5 GWh of energy storage will lay a strong revenue Q2 foundation. Wednesday's report will favor margins, not delivery. Options are pricing a 7.6% move in either direction. The 349x P/E demands margin increase and a believable robotaxi/Cybercab news to hold. Confirmed close above $386.72 targets the $396 to $401 EMA cluster.  Below $369.34, $355.26 opens.